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Climate and Land‐Use Change May Reshape the Biogeography of Freshwater Crabs Across China.

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Title: Climate and Land‐Use Change May Reshape the Biogeography of Freshwater Crabs Across China.
Authors: Geng, Yiting1,2 (AUTHOR), Oduro, Collins1,2 (AUTHOR), Chen, Juanjuan1,2 (AUTHOR), Khan, Sangar1,2 (AUTHOR), Adom Frimpong, Joyceline3 (AUTHOR), Dalu, Tatenda4 (AUTHOR), Wu, Naicheng1,2,5 (AUTHOR) naichengwu88@gmail.com
Source: Ecology & Evolution (20457758). May2026, Vol. 16 Issue 5, p1-16. 16p.
Subject Terms: *Biogeography, *Species distribution, *Freshwater biodiversity, *Climate change, *Land use, Freshwater crabs
Geographic Terms: China
Abstract: Freshwater biodiversity is increasingly exposed to the synergistic effects of climate forcing and land‐use change, yet the regional responses of key invertebrate lineages remain poorly resolved. We employed ensemble species distribution models to assess how future climate–land‐use trajectories may reorganize the suitability patterns for two ecologically distinct freshwater crab families in China: the inland Potamidae and the coastal‐estuarine Sesarmidae. Utilizing georeferenced occurrences from 2014 to 2024 and seven bioclimatic and land‐use predictors, we developed AUC‐weighted ensembles of MaxEnt and Random Forest models (AUC 0.91–0.94; TSS 0.75–0.77). Current suitability is concentrated within the humid river basins and coastal systems of southern and eastern China. Potamidae distributions are primarily associated with macro‐scale thermal gradients, whereas Sesarmidae suitability reflects a strong interaction between climatic variables and coastal land‐use signatures. Future projections (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5) indicate a systematic increase in mean and median continuous suitability across both families, suggesting a transition toward a more bioclimatically permissive landscape. However, the threshold‐defined suitable area contracted sharply, particularly for Sesarmidae, demonstrating that future change is better characterized as a spatial redistribution from concentrated contemporary cores toward broader, more diffuse intermediate‐suitability envelopes. While Potamidae exhibits a northward and inland expansion of moderate suitability, Sesarmidae maintains a restricted association with coastal refugia despite broader regional permissiveness. These results indicate that global change may expand environmental envelopes without preserving stable core habitats, underscoring the need to distinguish broad suitability from high‐confidence refugia in freshwater biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Ecology & Evolution (20457758) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Climate and Land‐Use Change May Reshape the Biogeography of Freshwater Crabs Across China.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Geng%2C+Yiting%22">Geng, Yiting</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Oduro%2C+Collins%22">Oduro, Collins</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Chen%2C+Juanjuan%22">Chen, Juanjuan</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Khan%2C+Sangar%22">Khan, Sangar</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Adom+Frimpong%2C+Joyceline%22">Adom Frimpong, Joyceline</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dalu%2C+Tatenda%22">Dalu, Tatenda</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wu%2C+Naicheng%22">Wu, Naicheng</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2,5</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> naichengwu88@gmail.com</i>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Ecology+%26+Evolution+%2820457758%29%22">Ecology & Evolution (20457758)</searchLink>. May2026, Vol. 16 Issue 5, p1-16. 16p.
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Biogeography%22">Biogeography</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Species+distribution%22">Species distribution</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Freshwater+biodiversity%22">Freshwater biodiversity</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Land+use%22">Land use</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Freshwater+crabs%22">Freshwater crabs</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22China%22">China</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Freshwater biodiversity is increasingly exposed to the synergistic effects of climate forcing and land‐use change, yet the regional responses of key invertebrate lineages remain poorly resolved. We employed ensemble species distribution models to assess how future climate–land‐use trajectories may reorganize the suitability patterns for two ecologically distinct freshwater crab families in China: the inland Potamidae and the coastal‐estuarine Sesarmidae. Utilizing georeferenced occurrences from 2014 to 2024 and seven bioclimatic and land‐use predictors, we developed AUC‐weighted ensembles of MaxEnt and Random Forest models (AUC 0.91–0.94; TSS 0.75–0.77). Current suitability is concentrated within the humid river basins and coastal systems of southern and eastern China. Potamidae distributions are primarily associated with macro‐scale thermal gradients, whereas Sesarmidae suitability reflects a strong interaction between climatic variables and coastal land‐use signatures. Future projections (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5) indicate a systematic increase in mean and median continuous suitability across both families, suggesting a transition toward a more bioclimatically permissive landscape. However, the threshold‐defined suitable area contracted sharply, particularly for Sesarmidae, demonstrating that future change is better characterized as a spatial redistribution from concentrated contemporary cores toward broader, more diffuse intermediate‐suitability envelopes. While Potamidae exhibits a northward and inland expansion of moderate suitability, Sesarmidae maintains a restricted association with coastal refugia despite broader regional permissiveness. These results indicate that global change may expand environmental envelopes without preserving stable core habitats, underscoring the need to distinguish broad suitability from high‐confidence refugia in freshwater biodiversity conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Ecology & Evolution (20457758) is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1002/ece3.73505
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 16
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Biogeography
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Species distribution
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Freshwater biodiversity
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Land use
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Freshwater crabs
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: China
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Climate and Land‐Use Change May Reshape the Biogeography of Freshwater Crabs Across China.
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            NameFull: Geng, Yiting
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            NameFull: Adom Frimpong, Joyceline
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              M: 05
              Text: May2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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