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Supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from Australia's agricultural land under global change.

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Title: Supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from Australia's agricultural land under global change.
Authors: Bryan, B.A.1 brett.bryan@csiro.au, Nolan, M.1, Harwood, T.D.2, Connor, J.D.1, Navarro-Garcia, J.3, King, D.1, Summers, D.M.1, Newth, D.4, Cai, Y.4, Grigg, N.5, Harman, I.4, Crossman, N.D.1, Grundy, M.J.6, Finnigan, J.J.4, Ferrier, S.2, Williams, K.J.2, Wilson, K.A.7, Law, E.A.7, Hatfield-Dodds, S.2
Source: Global Environmental Change Part A: Human & Policy Dimensions. Sep2014, Vol. 28, p166-181. 16p.
Subject Terms: *Carbon sequestration, *Agricultural ecology, *Agricultural productivity, *Land use, *Agricultural economics, *Biodiversity
Abstract: Global agroecosystems can contribute to both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation, and market mechanisms provide a highly prospective means of achieving these outcomes. However, the ability of markets to motivate the supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from agricultural land is uncertain, especially given the future changes in environmental, economic, and social drivers. We quantified the potential supply of these services from the intensive agricultural land of Australia from 2013 to 2050 under four global outlooks in response to a carbon price and biodiversity payment scheme. Each global outlook specified emissions pathways, climate, food demand, energy price, and carbon price modeled using the Global Integrated Assessment Model (GIAM). Using a simplified version of the Land Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, economic returns to agriculture, carbon plantings, and environmental plantings were calculated each year. The supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services was then quantified given potential land use change under each global outlook, and the sensitivity of the results to key parameters was assessed. We found that carbon supply curves were similar across global outlooks. Sharp increases in carbon sequestration supply occurred at carbon prices exceeding 50 $ tCO 2 −1 in 2015 and exceeding 65 $ tCO 2 −1 in 2050. Based on GIAM-modeled carbon prices, little carbon sequestration was expected at 2015 under any global outlook. However, at 2050 expected carbon supply under each outlook differed markedly, ranging from 0 to 189 MtCO 2 yr −1 . Biodiversity services of 3.32% of the maximum may be achieved in 2050 for a 1 $B investment under median scenario settings. We conclude that a carbon market can motivate supply of substantial carbon sequestration but only modest amounts of biodiversity services from agricultural land. A complementary biodiversity payment can synergistically increase the supply of biodiversity services but will not provide much additional carbon sequestration. The results were sensitive to global drivers, especially the carbon price, and the domestic drivers of adoption hurdle rate and agricultural productivity. The results can inform the design of an effective national policy and institutional portfolio addressing the dual objectives of climate change and biodiversity conservation that is robust to future uncertainty in both national and global drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Global Environmental Change Part A: Human & Policy Dimensions is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from Australia's agricultural land under global change.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bryan%2C+B%2EA%2E%22">Bryan, B.A.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><i> brett.bryan@csiro.au</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Nolan%2C+M%2E%22">Nolan, M.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Harwood%2C+T%2ED%2E%22">Harwood, T.D.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Connor%2C+J%2ED%2E%22">Connor, J.D.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Navarro-Garcia%2C+J%2E%22">Navarro-Garcia, J.</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22King%2C+D%2E%22">King, D.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Summers%2C+D%2EM%2E%22">Summers, D.M.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Newth%2C+D%2E%22">Newth, D.</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Cai%2C+Y%2E%22">Cai, Y.</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Grigg%2C+N%2E%22">Grigg, N.</searchLink><relatesTo>5</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Harman%2C+I%2E%22">Harman, I.</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Crossman%2C+N%2ED%2E%22">Crossman, N.D.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Grundy%2C+M%2EJ%2E%22">Grundy, M.J.</searchLink><relatesTo>6</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Finnigan%2C+J%2EJ%2E%22">Finnigan, J.J.</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ferrier%2C+S%2E%22">Ferrier, S.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Williams%2C+K%2EJ%2E%22">Williams, K.J.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wilson%2C+K%2EA%2E%22">Wilson, K.A.</searchLink><relatesTo>7</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Law%2C+E%2EA%2E%22">Law, E.A.</searchLink><relatesTo>7</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hatfield-Dodds%2C+S%2E%22">Hatfield-Dodds, S.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Global+Environmental+Change+Part+A%3A+Human+%26+Policy+Dimensions%22">Global Environmental Change Part A: Human & Policy Dimensions</searchLink>. Sep2014, Vol. 28, p166-181. 16p.
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Carbon+sequestration%22">Carbon sequestration</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Agricultural+ecology%22">Agricultural ecology</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Agricultural+productivity%22">Agricultural productivity</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Land+use%22">Land use</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Agricultural+economics%22">Agricultural economics</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Biodiversity%22">Biodiversity</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Global agroecosystems can contribute to both climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation, and market mechanisms provide a highly prospective means of achieving these outcomes. However, the ability of markets to motivate the supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services from agricultural land is uncertain, especially given the future changes in environmental, economic, and social drivers. We quantified the potential supply of these services from the intensive agricultural land of Australia from 2013 to 2050 under four global outlooks in response to a carbon price and biodiversity payment scheme. Each global outlook specified emissions pathways, climate, food demand, energy price, and carbon price modeled using the Global Integrated Assessment Model (GIAM). Using a simplified version of the Land Use Trade-Offs (LUTO) model, economic returns to agriculture, carbon plantings, and environmental plantings were calculated each year. The supply of carbon sequestration and biodiversity services was then quantified given potential land use change under each global outlook, and the sensitivity of the results to key parameters was assessed. We found that carbon supply curves were similar across global outlooks. Sharp increases in carbon sequestration supply occurred at carbon prices exceeding 50 $ tCO 2 −1 in 2015 and exceeding 65 $ tCO 2 −1 in 2050. Based on GIAM-modeled carbon prices, little carbon sequestration was expected at 2015 under any global outlook. However, at 2050 expected carbon supply under each outlook differed markedly, ranging from 0 to 189 MtCO 2 yr −1 . Biodiversity services of 3.32% of the maximum may be achieved in 2050 for a 1 $B investment under median scenario settings. We conclude that a carbon market can motivate supply of substantial carbon sequestration but only modest amounts of biodiversity services from agricultural land. A complementary biodiversity payment can synergistically increase the supply of biodiversity services but will not provide much additional carbon sequestration. The results were sensitive to global drivers, especially the carbon price, and the domestic drivers of adoption hurdle rate and agricultural productivity. The results can inform the design of an effective national policy and institutional portfolio addressing the dual objectives of climate change and biodiversity conservation that is robust to future uncertainty in both national and global drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Global Environmental Change Part A: Human & Policy Dimensions is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.013
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 16
        StartPage: 166
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Carbon sequestration
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Agricultural ecology
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Agricultural productivity
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Land use
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Agricultural economics
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      – SubjectFull: Biodiversity
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