Object-Based Verification of a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System.
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| Title: | Object-Based Verification of a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Skinner, Patrick S.1,2 patrick.skinner@noaa.gov, Wheatley, Dustan M.3, Knopfmeier, Kent H.1,2, Reinhart, Anthony E.1,2, Choate, Jessica J.1,2, Jones, Thomas A.1,2, Creager, Gerald J.1,2, Dowell, David C.4, Alexander, Curtis R.4, Ladwig, Therese T.4,5, Wicker, Louis J.2, Heinselman, Pamela L.2, Minnis, Patrick6, Palikonda, Rabindra7 |
| Source: | Weather & Forecasting. Oct2018, Vol. 33 Issue 5, p1225-1250. 26p. |
| Subjects: | Weather forecasting, Object-oriented databases, Confirmation (Logic), United States. National Weather Service, Thunderstorm forecasting |
| Abstract: | An object-based verification methodology for the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles (NEWS-e) has been developed and applied to 32 cases between December 2015 and June 2017. NEWS-e forecast objects of composite reflectivity and 30-min updraft helicity swaths are matched to corresponding reflectivity and rotation track objects in Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor system data on space and time scales typical of a National Weather Service warning. Object matching allows contingency-table-based verification statistics to be used to establish baseline performance metrics for NEWS-e thunderstorm and mesocyclone forecasts. NEWS-e critical success index (CSI) scores of reflectivity (updraft helicity) forecasts decrease from approximately 0.7 (0.4) to 0.4 (0.2) over 3 h of forecast time. CSI scores decrease through the forecast period, indicating that errors do not saturate during the 3-h forecast. Lower verification scores for rotation track forecasts are primarily a result of a high-frequency bias. Comparison of different system configurations used in 2016 and 2017 shows an increase in skill for 2017 reflectivity forecasts, attributable mainly to improvements in the forecast initial conditions. A small decrease in skill in 2017 rotation track forecasts is likely a result of sample differences between 2016 and 2017. Although large case-to-case variation is present, evidence is found that NEWS-e forecast skill improves with increasing object size and intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Weather & Forecasting is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 132518648 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Object-Based Verification of a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Skinner%2C+Patrick+S%2E%22">Skinner, Patrick S.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo><i> patrick.skinner@noaa.gov</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wheatley%2C+Dustan+M%2E%22">Wheatley, Dustan M.</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Knopfmeier%2C+Kent+H%2E%22">Knopfmeier, Kent H.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Reinhart%2C+Anthony+E%2E%22">Reinhart, Anthony E.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Choate%2C+Jessica+J%2E%22">Choate, Jessica J.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jones%2C+Thomas+A%2E%22">Jones, Thomas A.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Creager%2C+Gerald+J%2E%22">Creager, Gerald J.</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dowell%2C+David+C%2E%22">Dowell, David C.</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Alexander%2C+Curtis+R%2E%22">Alexander, Curtis R.</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ladwig%2C+Therese+T%2E%22">Ladwig, Therese T.</searchLink><relatesTo>4,5</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wicker%2C+Louis+J%2E%22">Wicker, Louis J.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Heinselman%2C+Pamela+L%2E%22">Heinselman, Pamela L.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Minnis%2C+Patrick%22">Minnis, Patrick</searchLink><relatesTo>6</relatesTo><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Palikonda%2C+Rabindra%22">Palikonda, Rabindra</searchLink><relatesTo>7</relatesTo> – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Weather+%26+Forecasting%22">Weather & Forecasting</searchLink>. Oct2018, Vol. 33 Issue 5, p1225-1250. 26p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Weather+forecasting%22">Weather forecasting</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Object-oriented+databases%22">Object-oriented databases</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Confirmation+%28Logic%29%22">Confirmation (Logic)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22United+States%2E+National+Weather+Service%22">United States. National Weather Service</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Thunderstorm+forecasting%22">Thunderstorm forecasting</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: An object-based verification methodology for the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles (NEWS-e) has been developed and applied to 32 cases between December 2015 and June 2017. NEWS-e forecast objects of composite reflectivity and 30-min updraft helicity swaths are matched to corresponding reflectivity and rotation track objects in Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor system data on space and time scales typical of a National Weather Service warning. Object matching allows contingency-table-based verification statistics to be used to establish baseline performance metrics for NEWS-e thunderstorm and mesocyclone forecasts. NEWS-e critical success index (CSI) scores of reflectivity (updraft helicity) forecasts decrease from approximately 0.7 (0.4) to 0.4 (0.2) over 3 h of forecast time. CSI scores decrease through the forecast period, indicating that errors do not saturate during the 3-h forecast. Lower verification scores for rotation track forecasts are primarily a result of a high-frequency bias. Comparison of different system configurations used in 2016 and 2017 shows an increase in skill for 2017 reflectivity forecasts, attributable mainly to improvements in the forecast initial conditions. A small decrease in skill in 2017 rotation track forecasts is likely a result of sample differences between 2016 and 2017. Although large case-to-case variation is present, evidence is found that NEWS-e forecast skill improves with increasing object size and intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Weather & Forecasting is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1175/WAF-D-18-0020.1 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 26 StartPage: 1225 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Weather forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Object-oriented databases Type: general – SubjectFull: Confirmation (Logic) Type: general – SubjectFull: United States. National Weather Service Type: general – SubjectFull: Thunderstorm forecasting Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Object-Based Verification of a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Skinner, Patrick S. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Wheatley, Dustan M. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Knopfmeier, Kent H. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Reinhart, Anthony E. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Choate, Jessica J. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Jones, Thomas A. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Creager, Gerald J. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Dowell, David C. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Alexander, Curtis R. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Ladwig, Therese T. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Wicker, Louis J. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Heinselman, Pamela L. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Minnis, Patrick – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Palikonda, Rabindra IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 10 Text: Oct2018 Type: published Y: 2018 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 08828156 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 33 – Type: issue Value: 5 Titles: – TitleFull: Weather & Forecasting Type: main |
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