Why is the rate of annual road fatalities increasing? A unit record analysis of New Zealand data (2010–2017).
Saved in:
| Title: | Why is the rate of annual road fatalities increasing? A unit record analysis of New Zealand data (2010–2017). |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Walton, Darren1,2 (AUTHOR) d.walton@cnr.co.nz, Jenkins, Dan2 (AUTHOR), Thoreau, Roselle2 (AUTHOR), Kingham, Simon1,2 (AUTHOR), Keall, Michael3 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Journal of Safety Research. Feb2020, Vol. 72, p67-74. 8p. |
| Subjects: | Traffic fatalities, Road safety measures |
| Geographic Terms: | New Zealand, Auckland (N.Z.) |
| Abstract: | • New Zealand's crash statistics are 49% higher than those achieved in 2013. • Twenty-one factors are modelled for four years before and four years after 2013. • Three factors are identified: (1) alcohol, (2) learner licences, and (3) Auckland. • Findings point to a systemic failure of detection and prosecution of offending. Recent increases in road crashes have reversed New Zealand's formerly declining crash rates to produce annual fatal and serious injury counts that are 49% higher than the lowest rates achieved in 2013. Method : We model twenty-one factors in fatal and serious injury crashes, four years before and after 2013 using logistic regression. Three major factors are significantly different in the period after 2013, when crash rates increased: (1) alcohol as a cause, (2) learner licence holders, and (3) a regional effect for Auckland. Newly defined speed zones are a more common setting for crashes in the period of upturn but there is no coinciding elevated likelihood of 'speed as a causal factor'. Three factors related to road safety were less common: aged under 25-years old, fatigue, and not wearing a seatbelt. Results : Results are compared to rates of prosecutions for alcohol-related driving offences over this period. It is possible that New Zealand's successful road safety initiatives of the past have been undermined by reduced levels of enforcement and an unexpected outcome from the graduated driving licence system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Journal of Safety Research is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
Be the first to leave a comment!
