Probability box theory-based uncertain power flow calculation for power system with wind power.
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| Title: | Probability box theory-based uncertain power flow calculation for power system with wind power. |
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| Authors: | Ding, Jiaman1 (AUTHOR) tjoman@126.com, Chen, Zhixin1 (AUTHOR) 2335901801@qq.com, Du, Yi2 (AUTHOR) 12844059@qq.com |
| Source: | International Journal of Emerging Electric Power Systems. Apr2021, Vol. 22 Issue 2, p243-253. 11p. |
| Subjects: | Wind power, Monte Carlo method, Wind speed, Newton-Raphson method, Uncertain systems, Wind power plants, Probability theory |
| Abstract: | The uncertainty of wind speed may lead to the deviation and change of wind power output, which influences the stability of wind farm. Therefore, in this paper, a probability box (p-box) based uncertain power flow model for wind power is proposed, which initially introduces p-box to power flow calculation. A probabilistic interval power flow model with both probability and interval is established. Firstly, the drift interval of wind speed is obtained and its p-box model is established by analyzing the distribution of wind speed. Secondly, the wind power output p-box is derived from the wind speed p-box based on the relationship between wind power output and wind speed, then the p-box of wind power output is discretized and introduced into the power flow equation to obtain the power flow p-box model. Finally, Newton–Raphson method is used to solve the power flow p-box model. Experiments on data collected from a wind farm (running standard IEEE30-bus test system) in Inner Mongolia demonstrate that our method is more effective and accurate than the traditional Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and classical interval power flow (IPF) method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: | Engineering Source |
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