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Impact of multi-annual renewable energy variability on the optimal sizing of off-grid systems.

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Title: Impact of multi-annual renewable energy variability on the optimal sizing of off-grid systems.
Authors: Javed, Muhammad Shahzad1 (AUTHOR), Jurasz, Jakub1,2 (AUTHOR) jakubkamiljurasz@gmail.com, Guezgouz, Mohammad3 (AUTHOR), Canales, Fausto A.4 (AUTHOR), Ruggles, Tyler H.5 (AUTHOR), Ma, Tao1 (AUTHOR) tao.ma@sjtu.edu.cn
Source: Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews. Sep2023, Vol. 183, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p.
Subjects: Renewable energy sources, Grids (Cartography), Electric power failures, Electric power distribution grids, Reliability in engineering, Energy storage, Electricity pricing
Abstract: It remains a significant technical and economic challenge to fully power large-scale grids with intermittent renewable energy (RE). Meanwhile, due to the rapid decrease in the cost of RE power generation technologies in recent years, the number of real-world implementations and studies dedicated to the optimal capacity sizing of renewable off-grid systems has increased. However, a common approach in the literature is to rely on typical single-year meteorological and demand data. A negative effect of this assumption is that it does not consider the RE inter-annual variability, which might cause blackouts or oversizing the system and large curtailments. This study employs 43 years of hourly solar, wind, and demand data, coupled with different microgrid configurations, to evaluate the impact of diverse simulation periods on the total system cost, optimal RE mix, and system reliability. Our findings indicate that extended simulation periods considerably increased renewable energy systems (RES) reliability and that the resulting configurations can be up to 94% more robust than those obtained using a single year of data. Additionally, the optimal energy storage requirements increased when considering longer simulation periods, indicating that short simulation periods could underestimate energy storage capacities in off-grid systems. The overestimations or underestimations resulting from optimizations based on single-year data directly affect the long-term sustainability, reliability, and cost-effectiveness of the RES. [Display omitted] • Off-grid renewables are modeled using 43 years of solar, wind, and demand data. • Extended simulation periods increased the system resilience up to 94%. • Optimal capacity sizing with one-year data may result in under/overestimations. • Sensitivities in system cost and size for diverse simulation periods are analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
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DbLabel: Engineering Source
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PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
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  Data: Impact of multi-annual renewable energy variability on the optimal sizing of off-grid systems.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Javed%2C+Muhammad+Shahzad%22">Javed, Muhammad Shahzad</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jurasz%2C+Jakub%22">Jurasz, Jakub</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> jakubkamiljurasz@gmail.com</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Guezgouz%2C+Mohammad%22">Guezgouz, Mohammad</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Canales%2C+Fausto+A%2E%22">Canales, Fausto A.</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ruggles%2C+Tyler+H%2E%22">Ruggles, Tyler H.</searchLink><relatesTo>5</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ma%2C+Tao%22">Ma, Tao</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> tao.ma@sjtu.edu.cn</i>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Renewable+%26+Sustainable+Energy+Reviews%22">Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews</searchLink>. Sep2023, Vol. 183, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Renewable+energy+sources%22">Renewable energy sources</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Grids+%28Cartography%29%22">Grids (Cartography)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Electric+power+failures%22">Electric power failures</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Electric+power+distribution+grids%22">Electric power distribution grids</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Reliability+in+engineering%22">Reliability in engineering</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Energy+storage%22">Energy storage</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Electricity+pricing%22">Electricity pricing</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: It remains a significant technical and economic challenge to fully power large-scale grids with intermittent renewable energy (RE). Meanwhile, due to the rapid decrease in the cost of RE power generation technologies in recent years, the number of real-world implementations and studies dedicated to the optimal capacity sizing of renewable off-grid systems has increased. However, a common approach in the literature is to rely on typical single-year meteorological and demand data. A negative effect of this assumption is that it does not consider the RE inter-annual variability, which might cause blackouts or oversizing the system and large curtailments. This study employs 43 years of hourly solar, wind, and demand data, coupled with different microgrid configurations, to evaluate the impact of diverse simulation periods on the total system cost, optimal RE mix, and system reliability. Our findings indicate that extended simulation periods considerably increased renewable energy systems (RES) reliability and that the resulting configurations can be up to 94% more robust than those obtained using a single year of data. Additionally, the optimal energy storage requirements increased when considering longer simulation periods, indicating that short simulation periods could underestimate energy storage capacities in off-grid systems. The overestimations or underestimations resulting from optimizations based on single-year data directly affect the long-term sustainability, reliability, and cost-effectiveness of the RES. [Display omitted] • Off-grid renewables are modeled using 43 years of solar, wind, and demand data. • Extended simulation periods increased the system resilience up to 94%. • Optimal capacity sizing with one-year data may result in under/overestimations. • Sensitivities in system cost and size for diverse simulation periods are analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews is the property of Pergamon Press - An Imprint of Elsevier Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1016/j.rser.2023.113514
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 1
        StartPage: N.PAG
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Renewable energy sources
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Grids (Cartography)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Electric power failures
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Electric power distribution grids
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Reliability in engineering
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Energy storage
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Electricity pricing
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Impact of multi-annual renewable energy variability on the optimal sizing of off-grid systems.
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            NameFull: Javed, Muhammad Shahzad
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            – D: 01
              M: 09
              Text: Sep2023
              Type: published
              Y: 2023
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