Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Hydroclimate Teleconnections in CMIP6 Models.
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| Title: | Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Hydroclimate Teleconnections in CMIP6 Models. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Jacobson, Tess Wei-Ping1,2 (AUTHOR) tessj@ldeo.columbia.edu, Seager, Richard2 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Journal of Climate. Oct2025, Vol. 38 Issue 19, p5103-5127. 25p. |
| Subjects: | General circulation model, Climate change forecasts, Climate feedbacks, Atmospheric models, Climate change |
| Geographic Terms: | Pacific Ocean |
| Abstract: | Natural decadal climate variability in the Pacific, such as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) or the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), plays a powerful role in evolving global hydroclimate on decadal time scales. Recent generations of general circulation models (GCMs) have been found to simulate the spatial pattern of the PDO well but struggle to capture temporal variability on decadal time scales. To use GCMs to project future climate, we must understand the degree to which climate models can successfully reproduce historical PDO and IPO spatial patterns, temporal behavior, and influence on hydroclimate. We calculate PDO and IPO spatial patterns and time series using 16 models within the CMIP6 archive, all with large (n ≥ 10) ensembles, and compare them to observations in an integrated assessment of models' ability to represent Pacific decadal variability spatiotemporally. All models underestimate decadal variability in the PDO and IPO and have a westward bias in their PDO and IPO North Pacific SST anomalies. We also evaluate hydroclimate teleconnections of the PDO and IPO in models using PDO- and IPO-associated precipitation, circulation, low-cloud, and vapor pressure deficit anomalies. We show that models' underpowered decadal variability in the Pacific is consistent with their inability to reproduce large-amplitude decadal swings in precipitation in southwestern North America and that models are virtually unable to produce a 30-yr precipitation trend in the southwest of the magnitude observed from 1982 to 2011. We emphasize the importance of model fidelity in simulating Pacific decadal variability for accurate representation of decadal-scale hydroclimate change in Pacific-teleconnected land regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 187865193 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Hydroclimate Teleconnections in CMIP6 Models. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jacobson%2C+Tess+Wei-Ping%22">Jacobson, Tess Wei-Ping</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> tessj@ldeo.columbia.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Seager%2C+Richard%22">Seager, Richard</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Climate%22">Journal of Climate</searchLink>. Oct2025, Vol. 38 Issue 19, p5103-5127. 25p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22General+circulation+model%22">General circulation model</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change+forecasts%22">Climate change forecasts</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+feedbacks%22">Climate feedbacks</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+models%22">Atmospheric models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Pacific+Ocean%22">Pacific Ocean</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Natural decadal climate variability in the Pacific, such as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) or the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), plays a powerful role in evolving global hydroclimate on decadal time scales. Recent generations of general circulation models (GCMs) have been found to simulate the spatial pattern of the PDO well but struggle to capture temporal variability on decadal time scales. To use GCMs to project future climate, we must understand the degree to which climate models can successfully reproduce historical PDO and IPO spatial patterns, temporal behavior, and influence on hydroclimate. We calculate PDO and IPO spatial patterns and time series using 16 models within the CMIP6 archive, all with large (n ≥ 10) ensembles, and compare them to observations in an integrated assessment of models' ability to represent Pacific decadal variability spatiotemporally. All models underestimate decadal variability in the PDO and IPO and have a westward bias in their PDO and IPO North Pacific SST anomalies. We also evaluate hydroclimate teleconnections of the PDO and IPO in models using PDO- and IPO-associated precipitation, circulation, low-cloud, and vapor pressure deficit anomalies. We show that models' underpowered decadal variability in the Pacific is consistent with their inability to reproduce large-amplitude decadal swings in precipitation in southwestern North America and that models are virtually unable to produce a 30-yr precipitation trend in the southwest of the magnitude observed from 1982 to 2011. We emphasize the importance of model fidelity in simulating Pacific decadal variability for accurate representation of decadal-scale hydroclimate change in Pacific-teleconnected land regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
| PLink | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=egs&AN=187865193 |
| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0616.1 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 25 StartPage: 5103 Subjects: – SubjectFull: General circulation model Type: general – SubjectFull: Climate change forecasts Type: general – SubjectFull: Climate feedbacks Type: general – SubjectFull: Atmospheric models Type: general – SubjectFull: Climate change Type: general – SubjectFull: Pacific Ocean Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Hydroclimate Teleconnections in CMIP6 Models. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Jacobson, Tess Wei-Ping – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Seager, Richard IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 10 Text: Oct2025 Type: published Y: 2025 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 08948755 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 38 – Type: issue Value: 19 Titles: – TitleFull: Journal of Climate Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
