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The Impact of a Subpolar North Atlantic Freshwater Anomaly on Eurasian Winter Climate.

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Title: The Impact of a Subpolar North Atlantic Freshwater Anomaly on Eurasian Winter Climate.
Authors: Grist, Jeremy P.1 (AUTHOR) jeremy.grist@noc.ac.uk, Josey, Simon A.1 (AUTHOR), Sinha, Bablu1 (AUTHOR), Screen, James A.2 (AUTHOR), Marsh, Robert3 (AUTHOR), Dey, Dipanjan3,4 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Climate. Nov2025, Vol. 38 Issue 21, p6277-6288. 12p.
Subjects: Jet streams, Polar climate, Turbulence, Meteorological precipitation, Atmospheric models, Freshwater ecology, Ocean temperature
Geographic Terms: North Atlantic Ocean, Atlantic Ocean
Abstract: The potential impact of a subpolar North Atlantic freshwater anomaly on sea surface temperature and the overlying atmosphere on seasonal time scales is investigated. A coupled climate model is perturbed with a major freshwater anomaly (FWA) in the subpolar gyre similar in structure to the 1970s Great Salinity Anomaly (GSA). A 20-member ensemble simulation is run from October to March and compared with a parallel 20-member control simulation. There are robust responses to the FWA in both the ocean and the atmosphere. In the ocean, the FWA is accompanied by an abrupt shoaling of the mixed layer and a decrease in the surface temperature anomalies that stay in place for several months. In the atmosphere, anomalously low pressure develops over the eastern North Atlantic and East Asia. Increased storminess and precipitation develop over the Atlantic (40°–5°W, 30°–55°N) and in the vicinity of Kazakhstan and central Asia (40°–80°E, 35°–50°N). The changes in storminess are consistent with increased horizontal temperature gradients and a stronger and more zonally orientated upper-level jet stream. The ability of the freshwater anomaly to sustain an otherwise short-lived SST anomaly highlights the importance of salinity as an initial condition in coupled seasonal forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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Items – Name: Title
  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: The Impact of a Subpolar North Atlantic Freshwater Anomaly on Eurasian Winter Climate.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Grist%2C+Jeremy+P%2E%22">Grist, Jeremy P.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> jeremy.grist@noc.ac.uk</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Josey%2C+Simon+A%2E%22">Josey, Simon A.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sinha%2C+Bablu%22">Sinha, Bablu</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Screen%2C+James+A%2E%22">Screen, James A.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Marsh%2C+Robert%22">Marsh, Robert</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dey%2C+Dipanjan%22">Dey, Dipanjan</searchLink><relatesTo>3,4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Climate%22">Journal of Climate</searchLink>. Nov2025, Vol. 38 Issue 21, p6277-6288. 12p.
– Name: Subject
  Label: Subjects
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Jet+streams%22">Jet streams</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Polar+climate%22">Polar climate</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Turbulence%22">Turbulence</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Meteorological+precipitation%22">Meteorological precipitation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+models%22">Atmospheric models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Freshwater+ecology%22">Freshwater ecology</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ocean+temperature%22">Ocean temperature</searchLink>
– Name: SubjectGeographic
  Label: Geographic Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22North+Atlantic+Ocean%22">North Atlantic Ocean</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atlantic+Ocean%22">Atlantic Ocean</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: The potential impact of a subpolar North Atlantic freshwater anomaly on sea surface temperature and the overlying atmosphere on seasonal time scales is investigated. A coupled climate model is perturbed with a major freshwater anomaly (FWA) in the subpolar gyre similar in structure to the 1970s Great Salinity Anomaly (GSA). A 20-member ensemble simulation is run from October to March and compared with a parallel 20-member control simulation. There are robust responses to the FWA in both the ocean and the atmosphere. In the ocean, the FWA is accompanied by an abrupt shoaling of the mixed layer and a decrease in the surface temperature anomalies that stay in place for several months. In the atmosphere, anomalously low pressure develops over the eastern North Atlantic and East Asia. Increased storminess and precipitation develop over the Atlantic (40°–5°W, 30°–55°N) and in the vicinity of Kazakhstan and central Asia (40°–80°E, 35°–50°N). The changes in storminess are consistent with increased horizontal temperature gradients and a stronger and more zonally orientated upper-level jet stream. The ability of the freshwater anomaly to sustain an otherwise short-lived SST anomaly highlights the importance of salinity as an initial condition in coupled seasonal forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0669.1
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 12
        StartPage: 6277
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Jet streams
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Polar climate
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Turbulence
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Meteorological precipitation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Freshwater ecology
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ocean temperature
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: North Atlantic Ocean
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atlantic Ocean
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: The Impact of a Subpolar North Atlantic Freshwater Anomaly on Eurasian Winter Climate.
        Type: main
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          Name:
            NameFull: Grist, Jeremy P.
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            NameFull: Josey, Simon A.
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            NameFull: Sinha, Bablu
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            NameFull: Screen, James A.
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            NameFull: Marsh, Robert
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            NameFull: Dey, Dipanjan
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            – D: 01
              M: 11
              Text: Nov2025
              Type: published
              Y: 2025
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              Value: 08948755
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              Value: 38
            – Type: issue
              Value: 21
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Journal of Climate
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