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Future Trends in Upper-Atmospheric Shear Instability from Climate Change.

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Title: Future Trends in Upper-Atmospheric Shear Instability from Climate Change.
Authors: de Medeiros, Joana1 (AUTHOR) j.medeiros@pgr.reading.ac.uk, Williams, Paul D.1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. Nov2025, Vol. 82 Issue 11, p2375-2392. 18p.
Subjects: Climate change, Jet streams, Atmospheric models, Aeronautical safety measures, Effect of human beings on climate change, Aerodynamic stability, Turbulence, Atmospheric circulation
Abstract: Understanding how jet streams respond to a warming climate is crucial for anticipating changes in atmospheric circulation and their broader impacts. Previous studies have highlighted the influence of anthropogenic warming on the meridional temperature gradient, which directly affects jet stream dynamics and variability. This study investigates projected trends in upper-level jet stream shear instability under future climate change scenarios using CMIP6 multimodel simulations. Building on previous findings linking anthropogenic warming to strengthened meridional temperature gradients, we analyze annual means of zonal wind speed, vertical wind shear, and stratification profiles from 2015 to 2100 globally. Results show strengthened multimodel annual-mean vertical shear at 250 hPa, particularly in high-emission scenarios, with trends ranging from 0.04 to 0.11 m s−1 (100 hPa)−1 decade−1 depending on the scenario and region, equivalent to a total relative increase of 16%–27% over 86 years. Decreasing trends are observed in the annual-mean Brunt–Väisälä frequency N2 at 250 hPa, with multimodel ensemble mean values across regions ranging from −0.018 to −0.040 × 10−4 s−2 decade−1 for lower and higher emission scenarios, respectively, equating to a total relative decrease of 10%–20%. Similarly, the annual-mean Richardson number Ri shows decreasing trends from −0.014 to −0.050 decade−1 across emission scenarios and regions, which is a total relative decrease of 38%–47%. These findings suggest more favorable conditions for the generation of clear-air turbulence (CAT), posing critical challenges for aviation safety and operations in a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Label: Title
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  Data: Future Trends in Upper-Atmospheric Shear Instability from Climate Change.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22de+Medeiros%2C+Joana%22">de Medeiros, Joana</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> j.medeiros@pgr.reading.ac.uk</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Williams%2C+Paul+D%2E%22">Williams, Paul D.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+the+Atmospheric+Sciences%22">Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences</searchLink>. Nov2025, Vol. 82 Issue 11, p2375-2392. 18p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Jet+streams%22">Jet streams</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+models%22">Atmospheric models</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Aeronautical+safety+measures%22">Aeronautical safety measures</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Effect+of+human+beings+on+climate+change%22">Effect of human beings on climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Aerodynamic+stability%22">Aerodynamic stability</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Turbulence%22">Turbulence</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+circulation%22">Atmospheric circulation</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Understanding how jet streams respond to a warming climate is crucial for anticipating changes in atmospheric circulation and their broader impacts. Previous studies have highlighted the influence of anthropogenic warming on the meridional temperature gradient, which directly affects jet stream dynamics and variability. This study investigates projected trends in upper-level jet stream shear instability under future climate change scenarios using CMIP6 multimodel simulations. Building on previous findings linking anthropogenic warming to strengthened meridional temperature gradients, we analyze annual means of zonal wind speed, vertical wind shear, and stratification profiles from 2015 to 2100 globally. Results show strengthened multimodel annual-mean vertical shear at 250 hPa, particularly in high-emission scenarios, with trends ranging from 0.04 to 0.11 m s−1 (100 hPa)−1 decade−1 depending on the scenario and region, equivalent to a total relative increase of 16%–27% over 86 years. Decreasing trends are observed in the annual-mean Brunt–Väisälä frequency N2 at 250 hPa, with multimodel ensemble mean values across regions ranging from −0.018 to −0.040 × 10−4 s−2 decade−1 for lower and higher emission scenarios, respectively, equating to a total relative decrease of 10%–20%. Similarly, the annual-mean Richardson number Ri shows decreasing trends from −0.014 to −0.050 decade−1 across emission scenarios and regions, which is a total relative decrease of 38%–47%. These findings suggest more favorable conditions for the generation of clear-air turbulence (CAT), posing critical challenges for aviation safety and operations in a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1175/JAS-D-24-0283.1
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 18
        StartPage: 2375
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Jet streams
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Aeronautical safety measures
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Effect of human beings on climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Aerodynamic stability
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Turbulence
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric circulation
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Future Trends in Upper-Atmospheric Shear Instability from Climate Change.
        Type: main
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          Name:
            NameFull: de Medeiros, Joana
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          Name:
            NameFull: Williams, Paul D.
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            – D: 01
              M: 11
              Text: Nov2025
              Type: published
              Y: 2025
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