Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Teleconnections from the 2023–24 El Niño Offset by Background SST Trends.
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| Title: | Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Teleconnections from the 2023–24 El Niño Offset by Background SST Trends. |
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| Authors: | Deser, Clara1 (AUTHOR) cdeser@ucar.edu, Yeager, Stephen1 (AUTHOR), Phillips, Adam S.1 (AUTHOR), Rosenbloom, Nan1 (AUTHOR), Zhao, Xueying1 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Journal of Climate. Jan2026, Vol. 39 Issue 1, p363-383. 21p. |
| Subjects: | El Niño, Teleconnections (Climatology), Ocean temperature, Climatic zones, Climate change, Rossby waves, Precipitation anomalies |
| Geographic Terms: | Indian Ocean, Northern Hemisphere |
| Abstract: | El Niño of 2023–24 ranked among the top five strongest El Niño events of the past 70 years, yet wintertime atmospheric teleconnections to the extratropical Northern Hemisphere were markedly weaker than anticipated. Here, we conduct a series of atmospheric modeling experiments using prescribed observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and radiative forcings to test the hypothesis that the observed pattern of background SST trends since 1980 was responsible for counteracting the expected teleconnection response. This so-called "SST pattern effect" (enhanced warming in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans and relative cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific) is shown to drive a teleconnection of the opposite sign via a Rossby wave response to anomalous precipitation over the western tropical Pacific driven remotely from the Indian Ocean. The circulation response to 2023–24 El Niño in the absence of background SST changes is almost entirely cancelled by the teleconnection produced by SST trends, with consequences for precipitation impacts over North America and Europe. Analogous behavior is found for the observed circulation anomalies, although internal atmospheric variability may also contribute. The results underscore the importance of considering the modulating influence of background SST trends, both natural and anthropogenic in origin, on El Niño teleconnections and associated climate impacts in the coming decades. Significance Statement: El Niño of 2023–24 ranked among the top five strongest El Niño events of the past 70 years, yet the expected wintertime atmospheric circulation and precipitation impacts over the Northern Hemisphere did not materialize. We investigate the reasons why this was the case and find that effects from long-term trends in tropical sea surface temperatures counteracted the expected El Niño teleconnections. Our results underscore the importance of considering the modulating influence of background sea surface temperatures on El Niño's fingerprint, especially as anthropogenic climate change accelerates in the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 190802448 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Teleconnections from the 2023–24 El Niño Offset by Background SST Trends. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Deser%2C+Clara%22">Deser, Clara</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> cdeser@ucar.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Yeager%2C+Stephen%22">Yeager, Stephen</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Phillips%2C+Adam+S%2E%22">Phillips, Adam S.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Rosenbloom%2C+Nan%22">Rosenbloom, Nan</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zhao%2C+Xueying%22">Zhao, Xueying</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Climate%22">Journal of Climate</searchLink>. Jan2026, Vol. 39 Issue 1, p363-383. 21p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22El+Niño%22">El Niño</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Teleconnections+%28Climatology%29%22">Teleconnections (Climatology)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ocean+temperature%22">Ocean temperature</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climatic+zones%22">Climatic zones</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rossby+waves%22">Rossby waves</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Precipitation+anomalies%22">Precipitation anomalies</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Indian+Ocean%22">Indian Ocean</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Northern+Hemisphere%22">Northern Hemisphere</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: El Niño of 2023–24 ranked among the top five strongest El Niño events of the past 70 years, yet wintertime atmospheric teleconnections to the extratropical Northern Hemisphere were markedly weaker than anticipated. Here, we conduct a series of atmospheric modeling experiments using prescribed observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and radiative forcings to test the hypothesis that the observed pattern of background SST trends since 1980 was responsible for counteracting the expected teleconnection response. This so-called "SST pattern effect" (enhanced warming in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans and relative cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific) is shown to drive a teleconnection of the opposite sign via a Rossby wave response to anomalous precipitation over the western tropical Pacific driven remotely from the Indian Ocean. The circulation response to 2023–24 El Niño in the absence of background SST changes is almost entirely cancelled by the teleconnection produced by SST trends, with consequences for precipitation impacts over North America and Europe. Analogous behavior is found for the observed circulation anomalies, although internal atmospheric variability may also contribute. The results underscore the importance of considering the modulating influence of background SST trends, both natural and anthropogenic in origin, on El Niño teleconnections and associated climate impacts in the coming decades. Significance Statement: El Niño of 2023–24 ranked among the top five strongest El Niño events of the past 70 years, yet the expected wintertime atmospheric circulation and precipitation impacts over the Northern Hemisphere did not materialize. We investigate the reasons why this was the case and find that effects from long-term trends in tropical sea surface temperatures counteracted the expected El Niño teleconnections. Our results underscore the importance of considering the modulating influence of background sea surface temperatures on El Niño's fingerprint, especially as anthropogenic climate change accelerates in the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
| PLink | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=egs&AN=190802448 |
| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0227.1 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 21 StartPage: 363 Subjects: – SubjectFull: El Niño Type: general – SubjectFull: Teleconnections (Climatology) Type: general – SubjectFull: Ocean temperature Type: general – SubjectFull: Climatic zones Type: general – SubjectFull: Climate change Type: general – SubjectFull: Rossby waves Type: general – SubjectFull: Precipitation anomalies Type: general – SubjectFull: Indian Ocean Type: general – SubjectFull: Northern Hemisphere Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Teleconnections from the 2023–24 El Niño Offset by Background SST Trends. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Deser, Clara – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Yeager, Stephen – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Phillips, Adam S. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Rosenbloom, Nan – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Zhao, Xueying IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 01 Text: Jan2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 08948755 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 39 – Type: issue Value: 1 Titles: – TitleFull: Journal of Climate Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
