The Emerging Precipitation Dipole Regime during the Tropical Asian Summer Monsoon Termination Phase.
Saved in:
| Title: | The Emerging Precipitation Dipole Regime during the Tropical Asian Summer Monsoon Termination Phase. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Wang, Xin1 (AUTHOR), Zhou, Wen1,2 (AUTHOR) wen_zhou@fudan.edu.cn, Zhang, Yue1 (AUTHOR), Zhang, Ruhua1 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Journal of Climate. Jan2026, Vol. 39 Issue 2, p517-538. 22p. |
| Subjects: | Monsoons, Madden-Julian oscillation, Climate change, Precipitation variability, Rainfall, Weather forecasting, Ocean dynamics |
| Geographic Terms: | Arabian Sea, Philippine Sea, South China Sea, Philippines, Pacific Ocean |
| Abstract: | Monsoon withdrawal critically regulates regional climate during the summer–autumn transition. Recent decadal variation in the tropical Asian summer monsoon (ASM) since 2005/06 has amplified an east–west precipitation dipole, contrasting enhanced South China Sea–Philippine Sea rainfall with suppressed activity over the southern Arabian Sea–Bay of Bengal. Multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis delineates a ∼10-day termination postponement concomitant with accelerated westerlies spanning from the northern Indian Peninsula to the Philippine Sea. Moisture budget diagnostics demonstrate vertical motion anomalies dominate dipole formation through synergistic intraseasonal (30–90-day) and low-frequency (>90-day) processes. On the intraseasonal time scale, enhanced Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) phases 5–6 during termination initiate precipitation dipole development via modulating the zonal circulation cell, while northward expansion of the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) elevates background moist static energy. Intraseasonal wind perturbations, intensified WPWP latent heat, and cloud-radiative feedbacks collectively sustain MJO propagation within WPWP. Concurrently, on a low-frequency time scale, the negative interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) phase strengthens Walker circulation ascent over the Maritime Continent, while the southern Indian Ocean warming phase intensifies western dipole subsidence. Model experiments confirm joint governance by Pacific sea surface temperature trends (external forcing) and internal variability (negative IPO and southern Indian Ocean warming phase). This multiscale interaction establishes the precipitation dipole regime, amplifying extreme rainfall risks in eastern ASM domains through MJO–tropical cyclone coupling, while instigating western monsoon precipitation deficits. Our findings advance understanding of monsoon transition variability and enhance predictive capacity for weather extremes under changing climate. Significance Statement: This study reveals how delayed tropical Asian summer monsoon withdrawal since the mid-2000s amplifies contrasting rainfall regimes—intensifying floods in the South China Sea–Philippines while worsening droughts in the southern Arabian Sea–Bay of Bengal. We demonstrate that interactions between short-term intraseasonal oscillations (MJO) and long-term Pacific/Indian Ocean internal oscillations drive this east–west rainfall dipole. Specifically, warmer ocean and internal oscillation enhance MJO and related storm activity in the east, while reinforcing dry conditions in the west. These findings help predict escalating flood risks in populated coastal regions and agricultural losses in monsoon-dependent areas. The results urge adaptive strategies for water resource management and highlight the need to consider the multiscale interaction for improving the prediction of monsoon variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
|
Full text is not displayed to guests.
Login for full access.
|
|
| FullText | Links: – Type: pdflink Text: Availability: 1 |
|---|---|
| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 190802482 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
| IllustrationInfo | |
| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: The Emerging Precipitation Dipole Regime during the Tropical Asian Summer Monsoon Termination Phase. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wang%2C+Xin%22">Wang, Xin</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zhou%2C+Wen%22">Zhou, Wen</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> wen_zhou@fudan.edu.cn</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zhang%2C+Yue%22">Zhang, Yue</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zhang%2C+Ruhua%22">Zhang, Ruhua</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Climate%22">Journal of Climate</searchLink>. Jan2026, Vol. 39 Issue 2, p517-538. 22p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Monsoons%22">Monsoons</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Madden-Julian+oscillation%22">Madden-Julian oscillation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Precipitation+variability%22">Precipitation variability</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rainfall%22">Rainfall</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Weather+forecasting%22">Weather forecasting</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ocean+dynamics%22">Ocean dynamics</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Arabian+Sea%22">Arabian Sea</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Philippine+Sea%22">Philippine Sea</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22South+China+Sea%22">South China Sea</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Philippines%22">Philippines</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Pacific+Ocean%22">Pacific Ocean</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Monsoon withdrawal critically regulates regional climate during the summer–autumn transition. Recent decadal variation in the tropical Asian summer monsoon (ASM) since 2005/06 has amplified an east–west precipitation dipole, contrasting enhanced South China Sea–Philippine Sea rainfall with suppressed activity over the southern Arabian Sea–Bay of Bengal. Multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis delineates a ∼10-day termination postponement concomitant with accelerated westerlies spanning from the northern Indian Peninsula to the Philippine Sea. Moisture budget diagnostics demonstrate vertical motion anomalies dominate dipole formation through synergistic intraseasonal (30–90-day) and low-frequency (>90-day) processes. On the intraseasonal time scale, enhanced Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) phases 5–6 during termination initiate precipitation dipole development via modulating the zonal circulation cell, while northward expansion of the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) elevates background moist static energy. Intraseasonal wind perturbations, intensified WPWP latent heat, and cloud-radiative feedbacks collectively sustain MJO propagation within WPWP. Concurrently, on a low-frequency time scale, the negative interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) phase strengthens Walker circulation ascent over the Maritime Continent, while the southern Indian Ocean warming phase intensifies western dipole subsidence. Model experiments confirm joint governance by Pacific sea surface temperature trends (external forcing) and internal variability (negative IPO and southern Indian Ocean warming phase). This multiscale interaction establishes the precipitation dipole regime, amplifying extreme rainfall risks in eastern ASM domains through MJO–tropical cyclone coupling, while instigating western monsoon precipitation deficits. Our findings advance understanding of monsoon transition variability and enhance predictive capacity for weather extremes under changing climate. Significance Statement: This study reveals how delayed tropical Asian summer monsoon withdrawal since the mid-2000s amplifies contrasting rainfall regimes—intensifying floods in the South China Sea–Philippines while worsening droughts in the southern Arabian Sea–Bay of Bengal. We demonstrate that interactions between short-term intraseasonal oscillations (MJO) and long-term Pacific/Indian Ocean internal oscillations drive this east–west rainfall dipole. Specifically, warmer ocean and internal oscillation enhance MJO and related storm activity in the east, while reinforcing dry conditions in the west. These findings help predict escalating flood risks in populated coastal regions and agricultural losses in monsoon-dependent areas. The results urge adaptive strategies for water resource management and highlight the need to consider the multiscale interaction for improving the prediction of monsoon variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
| PLink | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=egs&AN=190802482 |
| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0284.1 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 22 StartPage: 517 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Monsoons Type: general – SubjectFull: Madden-Julian oscillation Type: general – SubjectFull: Climate change Type: general – SubjectFull: Precipitation variability Type: general – SubjectFull: Rainfall Type: general – SubjectFull: Weather forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Ocean dynamics Type: general – SubjectFull: Arabian Sea Type: general – SubjectFull: Philippine Sea Type: general – SubjectFull: South China Sea Type: general – SubjectFull: Philippines Type: general – SubjectFull: Pacific Ocean Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: The Emerging Precipitation Dipole Regime during the Tropical Asian Summer Monsoon Termination Phase. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Wang, Xin – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Zhou, Wen – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Zhang, Yue – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Zhang, Ruhua IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 15 M: 01 Text: Jan2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 08948755 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 39 – Type: issue Value: 2 Titles: – TitleFull: Journal of Climate Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
