View in EDS HTML Full Text PDF Full Text

Interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Easterly Waves on Extreme Precipitation Events over Southeastern Mexico and Central America.

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Title: Interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Easterly Waves on Extreme Precipitation Events over Southeastern Mexico and Central America.
Authors: Torres, Victor M.1 (AUTHOR) victorm.torres@atmosfera.unam.mx, Raga, Graciela B.1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Climate. Mar2026, Vol. 39 Issue 6, p1373-1389. 17p.
Subjects: Madden-Julian oscillation, Atmospheric waves, Meteorological precipitation, Atmospheric physics, Cyclogenesis
Geographic Terms: Southeast Mexico, Central America, Gulf of Tehuantepec (Mexico), Mexico, Pacific Ocean
Abstract: This paper investigates the precursors of extreme precipitation events (EPE) over the tropical northeastern Pacific (EPAC), focusing on the coastal regions over southeastern Mexico and Central America. This area was selected given the social vulnerability of its population and its closeness to the second most cyclogenetic region in the world. The study indicates that EPE resulted mainly from the interaction between the westerly phase of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and easterly waves (EWs) present over the EPAC. Selected events had precipitation values above the 99th percentile from the gamma distribution fit during the rainy season from June to September over the period 1981–2022. From three different domains, results show that while EPE are more frequent in the region of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec over the EPAC (around 60 mm day−1), these are more intense over the Gulf of Mexico, reaching values of 120 mm day−1. Threshold values increased about 20% over the southern coast and about 79% over the northern coast due to orographic uplift. While most of these EPE occurred during the westerly phase of the MJO over the EPAC, further analyses showed that this is a necessary, but not sufficient, precursor for these events. The presence of EWs is also necessary. The interactions between the MJO and EWs over the EPAC showed that EWs intensify from barotropic energy conversions during EPE. While the total barotropic conversion terms are basic for this interaction, the term involving the meridional shear of the mean zonal wind is key during westerly MJO events. Significance Statement: The purpose of this study is to better understand the atmospheric conditions associated with extreme precipitation events along the coastal regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America. The study of extreme precipitation events in this region is important because of the high social vulnerability and its closeness to the second most cyclogenetic region in the world, as is the tropical northeastern Pacific. Our results show that extreme precipitation events result from the interaction of two tropical phenomena known as the Madden–Julian oscillation and easterly waves and are more frequent during the months of June and September. Monitoring and forecasting these atmospheric waves can lead to improved forecast of extreme events and increase resilience in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Engineering Source
Full text is not displayed to guests.
FullText Links:
  – Type: pdflink
Text:
  Availability: 1
Header DbId: egs
DbLabel: Engineering Source
An: 192792929
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
PreciseRelevancyScore: 0
IllustrationInfo
Items – Name: Title
  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: Interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Easterly Waves on Extreme Precipitation Events over Southeastern Mexico and Central America.
– Name: Author
  Label: Authors
  Group: Au
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Torres%2C+Victor+M%2E%22">Torres, Victor M.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> victorm.torres@atmosfera.unam.mx</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Raga%2C+Graciela+B%2E%22">Raga, Graciela B.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
– Name: TitleSource
  Label: Source
  Group: Src
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Climate%22">Journal of Climate</searchLink>. Mar2026, Vol. 39 Issue 6, p1373-1389. 17p.
– Name: Subject
  Label: Subjects
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Madden-Julian+oscillation%22">Madden-Julian oscillation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+waves%22">Atmospheric waves</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Meteorological+precipitation%22">Meteorological precipitation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+physics%22">Atmospheric physics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cyclogenesis%22">Cyclogenesis</searchLink>
– Name: SubjectGeographic
  Label: Geographic Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Southeast+Mexico%22">Southeast Mexico</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Central+America%22">Central America</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Gulf+of+Tehuantepec+%28Mexico%29%22">Gulf of Tehuantepec (Mexico)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mexico%22">Mexico</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Pacific+Ocean%22">Pacific Ocean</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: This paper investigates the precursors of extreme precipitation events (EPE) over the tropical northeastern Pacific (EPAC), focusing on the coastal regions over southeastern Mexico and Central America. This area was selected given the social vulnerability of its population and its closeness to the second most cyclogenetic region in the world. The study indicates that EPE resulted mainly from the interaction between the westerly phase of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and easterly waves (EWs) present over the EPAC. Selected events had precipitation values above the 99th percentile from the gamma distribution fit during the rainy season from June to September over the period 1981–2022. From three different domains, results show that while EPE are more frequent in the region of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec over the EPAC (around 60 mm day−1), these are more intense over the Gulf of Mexico, reaching values of 120 mm day−1. Threshold values increased about 20% over the southern coast and about 79% over the northern coast due to orographic uplift. While most of these EPE occurred during the westerly phase of the MJO over the EPAC, further analyses showed that this is a necessary, but not sufficient, precursor for these events. The presence of EWs is also necessary. The interactions between the MJO and EWs over the EPAC showed that EWs intensify from barotropic energy conversions during EPE. While the total barotropic conversion terms are basic for this interaction, the term involving the meridional shear of the mean zonal wind is key during westerly MJO events. Significance Statement: The purpose of this study is to better understand the atmospheric conditions associated with extreme precipitation events along the coastal regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America. The study of extreme precipitation events in this region is important because of the high social vulnerability and its closeness to the second most cyclogenetic region in the world, as is the tropical northeastern Pacific. Our results show that extreme precipitation events result from the interaction of two tropical phenomena known as the Madden–Julian oscillation and easterly waves and are more frequent during the months of June and September. Monitoring and forecasting these atmospheric waves can lead to improved forecast of extreme events and increase resilience in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=egs&AN=192792929
RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0726.1
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 17
        StartPage: 1373
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Madden-Julian oscillation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric waves
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Meteorological precipitation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric physics
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Cyclogenesis
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Southeast Mexico
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Central America
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Gulf of Tehuantepec (Mexico)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Mexico
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Pacific Ocean
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Easterly Waves on Extreme Precipitation Events over Southeastern Mexico and Central America.
        Type: main
  BibRelationships:
    HasContributorRelationships:
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Torres, Victor M.
      – PersonEntity:
          Name:
            NameFull: Raga, Graciela B.
    IsPartOfRelationships:
      – BibEntity:
          Dates:
            – D: 15
              M: 03
              Text: Mar2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
          Identifiers:
            – Type: issn-print
              Value: 08948755
          Numbering:
            – Type: volume
              Value: 39
            – Type: issue
              Value: 6
          Titles:
            – TitleFull: Journal of Climate
              Type: main
ResultId 1