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Global Increase in Tropical Cyclone Rapid Slowdown Events in Offshore Regions.

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Title: Global Increase in Tropical Cyclone Rapid Slowdown Events in Offshore Regions.
Authors: Zhong, Jian1 (AUTHOR), Cheng, Xiaoping2,3 (AUTHOR) chengxiaoping17@nudt.edu.cn, Wang, Chao4 (AUTHOR), Wu, Yuqin1 (AUTHOR), Sun, Yimei1 (AUTHOR), Li, Hongyan1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Climate. Mar2026, Vol. 39 Issue 6, p1559-1573. 15p.
Subjects: Tropical cyclones, Coasts, Acceleration (Mechanics), Ocean temperature, Climate change
Abstract: Rapid slowdown (RS) of tropical cyclone (TC) motion in offshore regions poses an increased threat to coastal populations and economies due to its unexpected nature and prolonged exposure. However, the variations in global RS events in offshore regions remain poorly understood. Here, we show that, unlike open oceans where RS counts show no significant changes, offshore areas within 400 km of the coastline have experienced a fourfold increase in RS events from 1982 to 2023. Both the global sea surface temperature and the Pacific decadal oscillation contribute to the RS trend. RS variation is significantly correlated with the rapid intensification (RI) change within the coastal regions. The steering flow becomes more favorable for the RS variations in the open oceans but plays a minor role within the coastal regions. The RI-favorable environmental conditions—namely, reduced vertical wind shear and increased potential intensity—are the main factors leading to the increase in RS events in the offshore regions. Climate model simulations suggest that global ocean warming has intensified these changes. These findings underscore the increasing threat of RS in coastal regions over the recent decades, which may continue under a warming climate. Significance Statement: The characteristics and the possible mechanisms of rapid slowdown (RS) of tropical cyclone (TC) motion in offshore regions remain poorly understood. Here, we find that unlike open oceans where RS counts show no significant changes, offshore areas within 400 km of the coastline have experienced a fourfold increase in RS events from 1982 to 2023. Moreover, our research shows that RS variation is significantly correlated with the rapid intensification (RI) change within the coastal regions, and the RI-favorable environmental conditions are the main factors leading to the increase in RS events in the offshore regions, whereas the steering flow plays a minor role. These findings underscore the increasing threat of RS in coastal regions over the recent decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Global Increase in Tropical Cyclone Rapid Slowdown Events in Offshore Regions.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zhong%2C+Jian%22">Zhong, Jian</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Cheng%2C+Xiaoping%22">Cheng, Xiaoping</searchLink><relatesTo>2,3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> chengxiaoping17@nudt.edu.cn</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wang%2C+Chao%22">Wang, Chao</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Wu%2C+Yuqin%22">Wu, Yuqin</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sun%2C+Yimei%22">Sun, Yimei</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Li%2C+Hongyan%22">Li, Hongyan</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Climate%22">Journal of Climate</searchLink>. Mar2026, Vol. 39 Issue 6, p1559-1573. 15p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tropical+cyclones%22">Tropical cyclones</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Coasts%22">Coasts</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Acceleration+%28Mechanics%29%22">Acceleration (Mechanics)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ocean+temperature%22">Ocean temperature</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Rapid slowdown (RS) of tropical cyclone (TC) motion in offshore regions poses an increased threat to coastal populations and economies due to its unexpected nature and prolonged exposure. However, the variations in global RS events in offshore regions remain poorly understood. Here, we show that, unlike open oceans where RS counts show no significant changes, offshore areas within 400 km of the coastline have experienced a fourfold increase in RS events from 1982 to 2023. Both the global sea surface temperature and the Pacific decadal oscillation contribute to the RS trend. RS variation is significantly correlated with the rapid intensification (RI) change within the coastal regions. The steering flow becomes more favorable for the RS variations in the open oceans but plays a minor role within the coastal regions. The RI-favorable environmental conditions—namely, reduced vertical wind shear and increased potential intensity—are the main factors leading to the increase in RS events in the offshore regions. Climate model simulations suggest that global ocean warming has intensified these changes. These findings underscore the increasing threat of RS in coastal regions over the recent decades, which may continue under a warming climate. Significance Statement: The characteristics and the possible mechanisms of rapid slowdown (RS) of tropical cyclone (TC) motion in offshore regions remain poorly understood. Here, we find that unlike open oceans where RS counts show no significant changes, offshore areas within 400 km of the coastline have experienced a fourfold increase in RS events from 1982 to 2023. Moreover, our research shows that RS variation is significantly correlated with the rapid intensification (RI) change within the coastal regions, and the RI-favorable environmental conditions are the main factors leading to the increase in RS events in the offshore regions, whereas the steering flow plays a minor role. These findings underscore the increasing threat of RS in coastal regions over the recent decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0498.1
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 15
        StartPage: 1559
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Tropical cyclones
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Coasts
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Acceleration (Mechanics)
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      – SubjectFull: Ocean temperature
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
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    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Global Increase in Tropical Cyclone Rapid Slowdown Events in Offshore Regions.
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            NameFull: Zhong, Jian
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            NameFull: Cheng, Xiaoping
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              Text: Mar2026
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              Y: 2026
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