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21st century hydrological trends in the Mississippi River basin intensify the east to west moisture gradient.

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Title: 21st century hydrological trends in the Mississippi River basin intensify the east to west moisture gradient.
Authors: HANCOCK, CHRISTOPHER L.1 chris.hancock@rice.edu, DEE, SYLVIA G.1, HAIDER, MUHAMMAD REZAUL2, DOSS-GOLLIN, JAMES3, LEHNER, FLAVIO4,5, MURPHY, KELSEY1, MUÑOZ, SAMUEL E.6,7
Source: Journal of Climate. May2026, Vol. 39 Issue 9, p1-18. 18p.
Subjects: Runoff, Atmospheric models, Meteorological precipitation, Hydrological research, El Niño, Soil moisture, Watersheds, Humidity
Geographic Terms: Mississippi River, Ohio, United States, North Atlantic Ocean
Abstract: The Mississippi River system drains 41% of the contiguous United States and is heavily engineered to mitigate hydrological extremes and facilitate commerce. However, future changes to water availability in the region are uncertain and may threaten the existing management systems. In this study, 19 models from the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are validated against historical observations and examined to understand monthly hydroclimate changes using the SSP3-7.0 pathway. Models agree that precipitation will increase throughout the Mississippi River basin, but soil moisture will decrease in all seasons due to increasing evaporative demand. Precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET), runoff, and discharge simulated by river transport models are poorly constrained with differing trends between regions and models. Generally, models agree that runoff increases are more robust for the eastern sub-basins, where precipitation anomalies are higher, and drying trends are more likely for the Missouri River sub-basin. Models projecting increased runoff within the Mississippi River basin show stronger ENSO-related Pacific warming, enhanced North Atlantic Subtropical High development, and increased moisture transport into the Ohio sub-basin. In contrast, drying models exhibit weaker Pacific warming and circulation changes, with precipitation and runoff declines concentrated in the western tributaries. These results highlight the role of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic drivers in shaping divergent hydroclimate projections for the Mississippi River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: 21st century hydrological trends in the Mississippi River basin intensify the east to west moisture gradient.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Climate%22">Journal of Climate</searchLink>. May2026, Vol. 39 Issue 9, p1-18. 18p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mississippi+River%22">Mississippi River</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ohio%22">Ohio</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22United+States%22">United States</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22North+Atlantic+Ocean%22">North Atlantic Ocean</searchLink>
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  Label: Abstract
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  Data: The Mississippi River system drains 41% of the contiguous United States and is heavily engineered to mitigate hydrological extremes and facilitate commerce. However, future changes to water availability in the region are uncertain and may threaten the existing management systems. In this study, 19 models from the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are validated against historical observations and examined to understand monthly hydroclimate changes using the SSP3-7.0 pathway. Models agree that precipitation will increase throughout the Mississippi River basin, but soil moisture will decrease in all seasons due to increasing evaporative demand. Precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET), runoff, and discharge simulated by river transport models are poorly constrained with differing trends between regions and models. Generally, models agree that runoff increases are more robust for the eastern sub-basins, where precipitation anomalies are higher, and drying trends are more likely for the Missouri River sub-basin. Models projecting increased runoff within the Mississippi River basin show stronger ENSO-related Pacific warming, enhanced North Atlantic Subtropical High development, and increased moisture transport into the Ohio sub-basin. In contrast, drying models exhibit weaker Pacific warming and circulation changes, with precipitation and runoff declines concentrated in the western tributaries. These results highlight the role of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic drivers in shaping divergent hydroclimate projections for the Mississippi River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0340.1
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 18
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Runoff
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Meteorological precipitation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Hydrological research
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: El Niño
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Soil moisture
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Watersheds
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Humidity
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Mississippi River
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Ohio
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: United States
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      – SubjectFull: North Atlantic Ocean
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      – TitleFull: 21st century hydrological trends in the Mississippi River basin intensify the east to west moisture gradient.
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              Text: May2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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