21st century hydrological trends in the Mississippi River basin intensify the east to west moisture gradient.
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| Title: | 21st century hydrological trends in the Mississippi River basin intensify the east to west moisture gradient. |
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| Authors: | HANCOCK, CHRISTOPHER L.1 chris.hancock@rice.edu, DEE, SYLVIA G.1, HAIDER, MUHAMMAD REZAUL2, DOSS-GOLLIN, JAMES3, LEHNER, FLAVIO4,5, MURPHY, KELSEY1, MUÑOZ, SAMUEL E.6,7 |
| Source: | Journal of Climate. May2026, Vol. 39 Issue 9, p1-18. 18p. |
| Subjects: | Runoff, Atmospheric models, Meteorological precipitation, Hydrological research, El Niño, Soil moisture, Watersheds, Humidity |
| Geographic Terms: | Mississippi River, Ohio, United States, North Atlantic Ocean |
| Abstract: | The Mississippi River system drains 41% of the contiguous United States and is heavily engineered to mitigate hydrological extremes and facilitate commerce. However, future changes to water availability in the region are uncertain and may threaten the existing management systems. In this study, 19 models from the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are validated against historical observations and examined to understand monthly hydroclimate changes using the SSP3-7.0 pathway. Models agree that precipitation will increase throughout the Mississippi River basin, but soil moisture will decrease in all seasons due to increasing evaporative demand. Precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET), runoff, and discharge simulated by river transport models are poorly constrained with differing trends between regions and models. Generally, models agree that runoff increases are more robust for the eastern sub-basins, where precipitation anomalies are higher, and drying trends are more likely for the Missouri River sub-basin. Models projecting increased runoff within the Mississippi River basin show stronger ENSO-related Pacific warming, enhanced North Atlantic Subtropical High development, and increased moisture transport into the Ohio sub-basin. In contrast, drying models exhibit weaker Pacific warming and circulation changes, with precipitation and runoff declines concentrated in the western tributaries. These results highlight the role of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic drivers in shaping divergent hydroclimate projections for the Mississippi River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: | Engineering Source |
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