Increasing Volatility of Extreme Daily Precipitation Across the Contiguous United States.
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| Title: | Increasing Volatility of Extreme Daily Precipitation Across the Contiguous United States. |
|---|---|
| Authors: | Sarhadi, Ali1 (AUTHOR) sarhadi@gatech.edu, Modarres, Reza2 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Journal of Climate. Jun2026, Vol. 39 Issue 12, p1-16. 16p. |
| Subjects: | Precipitation variability, Flood risk, Precipitation anomalies, Climate change, GARCH model, Meteorological precipitation, Geography |
| Abstract: | Understanding changes in the volatility of extreme precipitation—defined as the day-to-day instability of rainfall, including how strongly it fluctuates and how long those fluctuations persist—is essential for assessing hydroclimatic risks and developing effective adaptation strategies in a warming climate. We present a continental-scale analysis of day-to-day volatility in maximum daily precipitation across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) from 1950–2022. Volatility is estimated using a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, which captures both short- and long-term memory in daily precipitation variability. Our results reveal that annual maximum daily precipitation volatility has increased by 37.3 mm—an approximate increase of 8.4% since 1950—across CONUS. Distinct regional patterns emerge, with the largest increases in volatility observed in the South (17.2%), Atlantic East (7.5%), Midwest (11.3%) and Western Territories (6.7%), while the West Pacific shows a slight decline (-0.4%). High-volatility days—those exceeding the 95th percentile of volatility—have become 20.8% more frequent, with a statistically significant regime shift occurring around 1978 (± 2 years). Trends are strongest in the upper tail (95th percentile) of the volatility distribution, indicating that extreme precipitation events are becoming more unstable, even as typical events remain relatively unchanged. These shifts in precipitation volatility reflect a growing tendency for abrupt transitions between wet and dry days. Such instability elevates flash-flood risk, challenges infrastructure design, and increases socio-economic vulnerability. Targeted adaptation strategies will therefore be essential to address the impacts of increasing precipitation volatility in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 194578148 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Increasing Volatility of Extreme Daily Precipitation Across the Contiguous United States. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sarhadi%2C+Ali%22">Sarhadi, Ali</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> sarhadi@gatech.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Modarres%2C+Reza%22">Modarres, Reza</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Journal+of+Climate%22">Journal of Climate</searchLink>. Jun2026, Vol. 39 Issue 12, p1-16. 16p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Precipitation+variability%22">Precipitation variability</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Flood+risk%22">Flood risk</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Precipitation+anomalies%22">Precipitation anomalies</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22GARCH+model%22">GARCH model</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Meteorological+precipitation%22">Meteorological precipitation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Geography%22">Geography</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: Understanding changes in the volatility of extreme precipitation—defined as the day-to-day instability of rainfall, including how strongly it fluctuates and how long those fluctuations persist—is essential for assessing hydroclimatic risks and developing effective adaptation strategies in a warming climate. We present a continental-scale analysis of day-to-day volatility in maximum daily precipitation across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) from 1950–2022. Volatility is estimated using a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, which captures both short- and long-term memory in daily precipitation variability. Our results reveal that annual maximum daily precipitation volatility has increased by 37.3 mm—an approximate increase of 8.4% since 1950—across CONUS. Distinct regional patterns emerge, with the largest increases in volatility observed in the South (17.2%), Atlantic East (7.5%), Midwest (11.3%) and Western Territories (6.7%), while the West Pacific shows a slight decline (-0.4%). High-volatility days—those exceeding the 95th percentile of volatility—have become 20.8% more frequent, with a statistically significant regime shift occurring around 1978 (± 2 years). Trends are strongest in the upper tail (95th percentile) of the volatility distribution, indicating that extreme precipitation events are becoming more unstable, even as typical events remain relatively unchanged. These shifts in precipitation volatility reflect a growing tendency for abrupt transitions between wet and dry days. Such instability elevates flash-flood risk, challenges infrastructure design, and increases socio-economic vulnerability. Targeted adaptation strategies will therefore be essential to address the impacts of increasing precipitation volatility in a changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
| PLink | https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=egs&AN=194578148 |
| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0056.1 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 16 StartPage: 1 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Precipitation variability Type: general – SubjectFull: Flood risk Type: general – SubjectFull: Precipitation anomalies Type: general – SubjectFull: Climate change Type: general – SubjectFull: GARCH model Type: general – SubjectFull: Meteorological precipitation Type: general – SubjectFull: Geography Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Increasing Volatility of Extreme Daily Precipitation Across the Contiguous United States. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Sarhadi, Ali – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Modarres, Reza IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 15 M: 06 Text: Jun2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 08948755 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 39 – Type: issue Value: 12 Titles: – TitleFull: Journal of Climate Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
