Impacts of tropical forecast errors on weeks 3–4 extreme precipitation predictions over California during winter 2022–23.
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| Title: | Impacts of tropical forecast errors on weeks 3–4 extreme precipitation predictions over California during winter 2022–23. |
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| Authors: | Moore, Benjamin J.1 (AUTHOR) bem006@ucsd.edu, Dias, Juliana1 (AUTHOR), Hoell, Andrew1 (AUTHOR), Tulich, Stefan1,2 (AUTHOR), Gehne, Maria1,2 (AUTHOR), Albers, John1 (AUTHOR), Baggett, Cory3 (AUTHOR), LaJoie, Emerson3 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Monthly Weather Review. Jun2026, Vol. 154 Issue 6, p1-23. 23p. |
| Subjects: | Long-range weather forecasting, Atmospheric rivers, Rossby waves, Rainstorms, Ensemble learning |
| Geographic Terms: | California, Pacific Ocean, Pacific Coast (U.S.), North Pacific Ocean |
| Abstract: | This study examines ensemble forecast experiments in which model prognostic variables are nudged toward reanalysis values in the tropics to assess the effects of tropical errors on weeks 3–4 predictions of two long-lasting extreme precipitation events in California during winter 2022–23. For both events, the first spanning late-December to mid-January and the second spanning late-February to early-March, nudging yields significantly improved predictions for the large-scale flow over the North Pacific; however, impacts on the California precipitation forecast differ between the events. Comparison of the results for the two events highlights that subseasonal prediction of California precipitation extremes requires accurately forecasting predictable signals linked to tropical forcing, as well as extratropical synoptic-scale dynamics. For the December–January event, which is poorly predicted in the non-nudged "control" forecast, nudging results in especially large improvements in the weeks 3–4 California precipitation forecast as well as decreases in ensemble spread. These improvements correspond to improved prediction of the onset, persistence, and phasing of the North Pacific wave pattern. This pattern fosters landfall of successive cyclones and atmospheric rivers over California. For the February–March event, nudging yields improved prediction of the amplitude and persistence of a blocking ridge over the eastern Pacific but mixed results for the California precipitation downstream. In this latter event, ensemble spread in the nudged forecasts remains large, and the precipitation forecast accuracy depends strongly on the representation of midlatitude synoptic-scale Rossby wave breaking near the West Coast on the eastern flank of the blocking ridge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Monthly Weather Review is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Engineering Source |
| FullText | Links: – Type: pdflink Text: Availability: 0 |
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| Header | DbId: egs DbLabel: Engineering Source An: 194578202 AccessLevel: 6 PubType: Academic Journal PubTypeId: academicJournal PreciseRelevancyScore: 0 |
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| Items | – Name: Title Label: Title Group: Ti Data: Impacts of tropical forecast errors on weeks 3–4 extreme precipitation predictions over California during winter 2022–23. – Name: Author Label: Authors Group: Au Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Moore%2C+Benjamin+J%2E%22">Moore, Benjamin J.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> bem006@ucsd.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dias%2C+Juliana%22">Dias, Juliana</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hoell%2C+Andrew%22">Hoell, Andrew</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Tulich%2C+Stefan%22">Tulich, Stefan</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Gehne%2C+Maria%22">Gehne, Maria</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Albers%2C+John%22">Albers, John</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Baggett%2C+Cory%22">Baggett, Cory</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22LaJoie%2C+Emerson%22">LaJoie, Emerson</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR) – Name: TitleSource Label: Source Group: Src Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Monthly+Weather+Review%22">Monthly Weather Review</searchLink>. Jun2026, Vol. 154 Issue 6, p1-23. 23p. – Name: Subject Label: Subjects Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Long-range+weather+forecasting%22">Long-range weather forecasting</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+rivers%22">Atmospheric rivers</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rossby+waves%22">Rossby waves</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rainstorms%22">Rainstorms</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Ensemble+learning%22">Ensemble learning</searchLink> – Name: SubjectGeographic Label: Geographic Terms Group: Su Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22California%22">California</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Pacific+Ocean%22">Pacific Ocean</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Pacific+Coast+%28U%2ES%2E%29%22">Pacific Coast (U.S.)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22North+Pacific+Ocean%22">North Pacific Ocean</searchLink> – Name: Abstract Label: Abstract Group: Ab Data: This study examines ensemble forecast experiments in which model prognostic variables are nudged toward reanalysis values in the tropics to assess the effects of tropical errors on weeks 3–4 predictions of two long-lasting extreme precipitation events in California during winter 2022–23. For both events, the first spanning late-December to mid-January and the second spanning late-February to early-March, nudging yields significantly improved predictions for the large-scale flow over the North Pacific; however, impacts on the California precipitation forecast differ between the events. Comparison of the results for the two events highlights that subseasonal prediction of California precipitation extremes requires accurately forecasting predictable signals linked to tropical forcing, as well as extratropical synoptic-scale dynamics. For the December–January event, which is poorly predicted in the non-nudged "control" forecast, nudging results in especially large improvements in the weeks 3–4 California precipitation forecast as well as decreases in ensemble spread. These improvements correspond to improved prediction of the onset, persistence, and phasing of the North Pacific wave pattern. This pattern fosters landfall of successive cyclones and atmospheric rivers over California. For the February–March event, nudging yields improved prediction of the amplitude and persistence of a blocking ridge over the eastern Pacific but mixed results for the California precipitation downstream. In this latter event, ensemble spread in the nudged forecasts remains large, and the precipitation forecast accuracy depends strongly on the representation of midlatitude synoptic-scale Rossby wave breaking near the West Coast on the eastern flank of the blocking ridge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] – Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright Label: Group: Ab Data: <i>Copyright of Monthly Weather Review is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) |
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| RecordInfo | BibRecord: BibEntity: Identifiers: – Type: doi Value: 10.1175/MWR-D-25-0133.1 Languages: – Code: eng Text: English PhysicalDescription: Pagination: PageCount: 23 StartPage: 1 Subjects: – SubjectFull: Long-range weather forecasting Type: general – SubjectFull: Atmospheric rivers Type: general – SubjectFull: Rossby waves Type: general – SubjectFull: Rainstorms Type: general – SubjectFull: Ensemble learning Type: general – SubjectFull: California Type: general – SubjectFull: Pacific Ocean Type: general – SubjectFull: Pacific Coast (U.S.) Type: general – SubjectFull: North Pacific Ocean Type: general Titles: – TitleFull: Impacts of tropical forecast errors on weeks 3–4 extreme precipitation predictions over California during winter 2022–23. Type: main BibRelationships: HasContributorRelationships: – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Moore, Benjamin J. – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Dias, Juliana – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Hoell, Andrew – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Tulich, Stefan – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Gehne, Maria – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Albers, John – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: Baggett, Cory – PersonEntity: Name: NameFull: LaJoie, Emerson IsPartOfRelationships: – BibEntity: Dates: – D: 01 M: 06 Text: Jun2026 Type: published Y: 2026 Identifiers: – Type: issn-print Value: 00270644 Numbering: – Type: volume Value: 154 – Type: issue Value: 6 Titles: – TitleFull: Monthly Weather Review Type: main |
| ResultId | 1 |
