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THE DEMOGRAPHIC CLIFF IS HERE.

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Title: THE DEMOGRAPHIC CLIFF IS HERE.
Authors: Paterson, Jim
Source: Journal of College Admission. Winter2026, Issue 269, p24-29. 6p.
Subject Terms: *Demographic change, *Student recruitment, *High school graduation rates, *Educational change, *Student attrition, *Demography, *Partnerships in education, *Postsecondary education
Geographic Terms: United States
Abstract: The article focuses on the demographic cliff, a significant and ongoing decline in the number of U.S. high school graduates beginning in 2025, which is expected to reduce the traditional college-aged population by about 13 percent by 2041. Experts, including economists and enrollment leaders, warn that this trend will challenge higher education institutions—especially smaller, non-selective, tuition-dependent colleges—and necessitate strategic changes in recruitment, retention, program offerings, and partnerships. The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) projects regional variations in graduate numbers, with declines in most states except some in the South. To adapt, colleges are encouraged to innovate by focusing on distinct strengths, improving student support, leveraging technology, and forming collaborations, rather than attempting to appeal broadly to all prospective students. [Extracted from the article]
Copyright of Journal of College Admission is the property of National Association of College Admission Counseling and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Education Research Complete
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  Data: The article focuses on the demographic cliff, a significant and ongoing decline in the number of U.S. high school graduates beginning in 2025, which is expected to reduce the traditional college-aged population by about 13 percent by 2041. Experts, including economists and enrollment leaders, warn that this trend will challenge higher education institutions—especially smaller, non-selective, tuition-dependent colleges—and necessitate strategic changes in recruitment, retention, program offerings, and partnerships. The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) projects regional variations in graduate numbers, with declines in most states except some in the South. To adapt, colleges are encouraged to innovate by focusing on distinct strengths, improving student support, leveraging technology, and forming collaborations, rather than attempting to appeal broadly to all prospective students. [Extracted from the article]
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Journal of College Admission is the property of National Association of College Admission Counseling and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 6
        StartPage: 24
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Demographic change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Student recruitment
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: High school graduation rates
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Educational change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Student attrition
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Demography
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Partnerships in education
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Postsecondary education
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: United States
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      – TitleFull: THE DEMOGRAPHIC CLIFF IS HERE.
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              Text: Winter2026
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              Y: 2026
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              Value: 269
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