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Medicare Advantage Enrollment and Total Medicare Program Spending.

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Title: Medicare Advantage Enrollment and Total Medicare Program Spending.
Authors: Alfrey, Brett1 (AUTHOR) brett.alfrey@elevancehealth.com, Gordon, Aliza S.1 (AUTHOR), Locke, Michelle Nguyen1 (AUTHOR), Kowalski, Jennifer L.1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Inquiry (00469580). 3/23/2026, Vol. 63, p1-9. 9p.
Subject Terms: *Unemployment, Medicare, Cost control, Managed care programs, Income, Statistical significance, Health policy, Medical care, Socioeconomic factors, Fee for service (Medical fees), Primary health care, Descriptive statistics, Data analysis software, Medical care costs, Poverty, Regression analysis
Geographic Terms: United States
Abstract: Medicare Advantage (MA) enrollment has grown significantly over the last 2 decades while Medicare program spending per capita has moderated over that same period. An open question is how the growth in MA enrollment has impacted Medicare program spending. The objective of this study is to estimate the association between MA penetration (ie, the percentage of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in MA) and total Medicare spending per capita. We estimated linear regression models that examine the relationship between county-level MA penetration and total Medicare spending per capita. The study used county-level Medicare spending and enrollment data—including MA, Medicare Fee-for-Service, and Part D—from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services from 2012 to 2021. The study included counties from all 50 states and Washington, D.C. 3045 counties were included in the analysis, which represents 97% of U.S. counties. We found that counties with higher MA penetration showed lower standardized Medicare spending per capita. Specifically, 10 percentage point higher annual MA penetration was associated with $194 lower (P <.001) total Medicare spending per capita, representing 1.5% lower spending. After adjusting risk scores to reflect the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission's estimates of higher coding intensity in MA, 10 percentage point higher annual MA penetration was associated with $146 lower (P <.001) total Medicare spending per capita, representing 1.1% lower spending. If these associations are causal in nature, then higher MA enrollment over the last 2 decades may have moderated total Medicare program spending over the same period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Inquiry (00469580) is the property of Sage Publications Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Medicare Advantage Enrollment and Total Medicare Program Spending.
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  Data: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Alfrey%2C+Brett%22&quot;&gt;Alfrey, Brett&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;relatesTo&gt;1&lt;/relatesTo&gt; (AUTHOR)&lt;i&gt; brett.alfrey@elevancehealth.com&lt;/i&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Gordon%2C+Aliza+S%2E%22&quot;&gt;Gordon, Aliza S.&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;relatesTo&gt;1&lt;/relatesTo&gt; (AUTHOR)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Locke%2C+Michelle+Nguyen%22&quot;&gt;Locke, Michelle Nguyen&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;relatesTo&gt;1&lt;/relatesTo&gt; (AUTHOR)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Kowalski%2C+Jennifer+L%2E%22&quot;&gt;Kowalski, Jennifer L.&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;relatesTo&gt;1&lt;/relatesTo&gt; (AUTHOR)
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  Data: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;JN&quot; term=&quot;%22Inquiry+%2800469580%29%22&quot;&gt;Inquiry (00469580)&lt;/searchLink&gt;. 3/23/2026, Vol. 63, p1-9. 9p.
– Name: Subject
  Label: Subject Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: *&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Unemployment%22&quot;&gt;Unemployment&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Medicare%22&quot;&gt;Medicare&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Cost+control%22&quot;&gt;Cost control&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Managed+care+programs%22&quot;&gt;Managed care programs&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Income%22&quot;&gt;Income&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Statistical+significance%22&quot;&gt;Statistical significance&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Health+policy%22&quot;&gt;Health policy&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Medical+care%22&quot;&gt;Medical care&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Socioeconomic+factors%22&quot;&gt;Socioeconomic factors&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Fee+for+service+%28Medical+fees%29%22&quot;&gt;Fee for service (Medical fees)&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Primary+health+care%22&quot;&gt;Primary health care&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Descriptive+statistics%22&quot;&gt;Descriptive statistics&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Data+analysis+software%22&quot;&gt;Data analysis software&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Medical+care+costs%22&quot;&gt;Medical care costs&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Poverty%22&quot;&gt;Poverty&lt;/searchLink&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Regression+analysis%22&quot;&gt;Regression analysis&lt;/searchLink&gt;
– Name: SubjectGeographic
  Label: Geographic Terms
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  Data: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22United+States%22&quot;&gt;United States&lt;/searchLink&gt;
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Medicare Advantage (MA) enrollment has grown significantly over the last 2 decades while Medicare program spending per capita has moderated over that same period. An open question is how the growth in MA enrollment has impacted Medicare program spending. The objective of this study is to estimate the association between MA penetration (ie, the percentage of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in MA) and total Medicare spending per capita. We estimated linear regression models that examine the relationship between county-level MA penetration and total Medicare spending per capita. The study used county-level Medicare spending and enrollment data—including MA, Medicare Fee-for-Service, and Part D—from the Centers for Medicare &amp; Medicaid Services from 2012 to 2021. The study included counties from all 50 states and Washington, D.C. 3045 counties were included in the analysis, which represents 97% of U.S. counties. We found that counties with higher MA penetration showed lower standardized Medicare spending per capita. Specifically, 10 percentage point higher annual MA penetration was associated with $194 lower (P &lt;.001) total Medicare spending per capita, representing 1.5% lower spending. After adjusting risk scores to reflect the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission&#39;s estimates of higher coding intensity in MA, 10 percentage point higher annual MA penetration was associated with $146 lower (P &lt;.001) total Medicare spending per capita, representing 1.1% lower spending. If these associations are causal in nature, then higher MA enrollment over the last 2 decades may have moderated total Medicare program spending over the same period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
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  Data: &lt;i&gt;Copyright of Inquiry (00469580) is the property of Sage Publications Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder&#39;s express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.&lt;/i&gt; (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1177/00469580261433163
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 9
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Unemployment
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Medicare
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Cost control
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Managed care programs
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Income
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Statistical significance
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Health policy
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Medical care
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Socioeconomic factors
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Fee for service (Medical fees)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Primary health care
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Descriptive statistics
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Data analysis software
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Medical care costs
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Poverty
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Regression analysis
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: United States
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Medicare Advantage Enrollment and Total Medicare Program Spending.
        Type: main
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            NameFull: Alfrey, Brett
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            NameFull: Gordon, Aliza S.
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            NameFull: Locke, Michelle Nguyen
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            NameFull: Kowalski, Jennifer L.
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            – D: 23
              M: 03
              Text: 3/23/2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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              Value: 63
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