Comparison of ensemble prediction systems with reference to the hydrological response for a major flood event in Vishwamitri river basin.
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| Title: | Comparison of ensemble prediction systems with reference to the hydrological response for a major flood event in Vishwamitri river basin. |
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| Authors: | Yadav, Rashmi1 (AUTHOR) rashmiy276@gmail.com, Yadav, Sanjaykumar M.1 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Earth Science Informatics. Jan2026, Vol. 19 Issue 1, p1-15. 15p. |
| Abstract: | It is challenging to predict, how the atmosphere will respond and how the watershed’s hydrological characteristics will alter over time. The performance of the ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) varies across the globe and needs to be examined before relying on one EPS for the flood prediction over a region. This study presents the comparison of ensemble precipitation forecasts (EPFs) by three well behaved EPSs based on the hydrologic response of the catchment. For the improvement of biases in the EPFs, they are post-processed using a parametric postprocessing method. The post-processed EPFs were given as input to the Quasi-distributed rainfall-runoff model. The average Brier Score (BS) of post-processed EPFs by NCMRWF (National Center for Medium-Range Weather forecast) is the lowest and has a relatively lower error than ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast) and UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Organisation) by 3.07% and 7.44% respectively. The Critical Success Index ratio of ECMWF showed the highest values ranging from 0.67 to 0.38 for the warning thresholds of 3-day lead time. The postprocessed precipitation of NCMRWF showed better skill, but the ECMWF EPS performed better in predicting the warning thresholds. Overall, the ECMWF EPS outperforms the other EPSs considered in the paper for predicting the flood warning thresholds. The evaluation of the hydrological ensemble forecasts shows that the performance of the forecasts decreases with a higher lead time. The hydrological ensemble forecasts will be a great aid to the hydrologists for the preparedness in advance for extreme floods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Database: | Energy & Power Source |
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