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A Cost Optimization Model Utilizing Real-Time Aggregated EV Flexibility to Address Forecast Uncertainty in Demand Response Markets.

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Title: A Cost Optimization Model Utilizing Real-Time Aggregated EV Flexibility to Address Forecast Uncertainty in Demand Response Markets.
Authors: Chen, Yi-An1 (AUTHOR), Zeng, Wente2 (AUTHOR), Cambronne, Thibaud3 (AUTHOR), Khurram, Adil1 (AUTHOR) akhurram@ucsd.edu, Kleissl, Jan1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Energies (19961073). Mar2026, Vol. 19 Issue 5, p1222. 22p.
Subject Terms: *Optimization algorithms, *Real-time control, *Electric vehicles, *Electric vehicle charging stations, *Cost functions, *Energy demand management, *Energy industry forecasting, *Predictive control systems
Abstract: This paper presents a novel optimization algorithm for electric vehicle (EV) aggregators aiming to maximize net revenue in demand response markets. Aggregated EV charging stations are modeled as a battery with time-varying capacity, enabling participation in these markets. Due to uncertainties in EV plug-in duration and energy demand, it is challenging for aggregators to fulfill bid capacities in real-time (RT). To address this, EV users specify minimum acceptable service levels, allowing aggregators to optimize both charging timing and energy demand in RT. The model is composed of two layers: (1) a Day-Ahead (DA) optimizer that determines optimal EV scheduling and DA demand response market bidding, and (2) a two-stage RT optimizer that fine-tunes the charging schedule using real-time flexibility to mitigate forecast errors. The RT optimizer leverages Model Predictive Control (MPC) in a two-stage structure to address the problem's non-convexity, which arises from two coupled unknowns: the charging time and the charging energy demand. In the first stage, it determines a cost-optimal charging schedule that ensures full service levels. In the second stage, it optimizes the charging energy demand within a feasible range, bounded above by the first-stage trajectory and below by user-defined minimum service levels, to maximize demand response market revenue. A realistic baseline and a penalty term are integrated into the demand response market revenue term of the cost function to more accurately reflect real-world conditions. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method yields a net economic profit at least five times higher than that of immediate (or 'dumb') charging. During one month of simulations, the aggregator achieves revenue equivalent to $0.21 per kWh of demand reduction under forecast uncertainty, totaling $3441. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Database: Energy & Power Source
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DbLabel: Energy & Power Source
An: 192640947
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  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: A Cost Optimization Model Utilizing Real-Time Aggregated EV Flexibility to Address Forecast Uncertainty in Demand Response Markets.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Chen%2C+Yi-An%22">Chen, Yi-An</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Zeng%2C+Wente%22">Zeng, Wente</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Cambronne%2C+Thibaud%22">Cambronne, Thibaud</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Khurram%2C+Adil%22">Khurram, Adil</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> akhurram@ucsd.edu</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kleissl%2C+Jan%22">Kleissl, Jan</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Energies+%2819961073%29%22">Energies (19961073)</searchLink>. Mar2026, Vol. 19 Issue 5, p1222. 22p.
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Optimization+algorithms%22">Optimization algorithms</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Real-time+control%22">Real-time control</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Electric+vehicles%22">Electric vehicles</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Electric+vehicle+charging+stations%22">Electric vehicle charging stations</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cost+functions%22">Cost functions</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Energy+demand+management%22">Energy demand management</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Energy+industry+forecasting%22">Energy industry forecasting</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Predictive+control+systems%22">Predictive control systems</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: This paper presents a novel optimization algorithm for electric vehicle (EV) aggregators aiming to maximize net revenue in demand response markets. Aggregated EV charging stations are modeled as a battery with time-varying capacity, enabling participation in these markets. Due to uncertainties in EV plug-in duration and energy demand, it is challenging for aggregators to fulfill bid capacities in real-time (RT). To address this, EV users specify minimum acceptable service levels, allowing aggregators to optimize both charging timing and energy demand in RT. The model is composed of two layers: (1) a Day-Ahead (DA) optimizer that determines optimal EV scheduling and DA demand response market bidding, and (2) a two-stage RT optimizer that fine-tunes the charging schedule using real-time flexibility to mitigate forecast errors. The RT optimizer leverages Model Predictive Control (MPC) in a two-stage structure to address the problem's non-convexity, which arises from two coupled unknowns: the charging time and the charging energy demand. In the first stage, it determines a cost-optimal charging schedule that ensures full service levels. In the second stage, it optimizes the charging energy demand within a feasible range, bounded above by the first-stage trajectory and below by user-defined minimum service levels, to maximize demand response market revenue. A realistic baseline and a penalty term are integrated into the demand response market revenue term of the cost function to more accurately reflect real-world conditions. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method yields a net economic profit at least five times higher than that of immediate (or 'dumb') charging. During one month of simulations, the aggregator achieves revenue equivalent to $0.21 per kWh of demand reduction under forecast uncertainty, totaling $3441. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
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        Value: 10.3390/en19051222
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 22
        StartPage: 1222
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      – SubjectFull: Optimization algorithms
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Real-time control
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Electric vehicles
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Electric vehicle charging stations
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Cost functions
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Energy demand management
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Energy industry forecasting
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Predictive control systems
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: A Cost Optimization Model Utilizing Real-Time Aggregated EV Flexibility to Address Forecast Uncertainty in Demand Response Markets.
        Type: main
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          Name:
            NameFull: Chen, Yi-An
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            NameFull: Zeng, Wente
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            NameFull: Cambronne, Thibaud
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            NameFull: Khurram, Adil
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            NameFull: Kleissl, Jan
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            – D: 01
              M: 03
              Text: Mar2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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              Value: 19
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              Value: 5
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            – TitleFull: Energies (19961073)
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