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Increasing glacier runoff in northwestern Greenland simulated from 1950 to 2023.

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Title: Increasing glacier runoff in northwestern Greenland simulated from 1950 to 2023.
Authors: Kondo, Ken1 (AUTHOR) kenkondo0410@gmail.com, Fujita, Koji1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Hydrology & Earth System Sciences. 2026, Vol. 30 Issue 7, p1849-1864. 16p.
Subject Terms: *Runoff, *Atmospheric rivers, *Global warming, *Rainfall, *Floods, *Absolute sea level change, *Climate change, *Greenland ice
Geographic Terms: Greenland
Abstract: Increased river runoff due to ice melting in Greenland contributes to sea-level rise, as well as flooding in coastal settlements, posing serious risks to local communities. To investigate fluctuations of glacier runoff in Greenland and its atmospheric drivers, long-term variations in runoff from Qaanaaq Glacier, northwestern Greenland, were reconstructed from 1950 to 2023 using a glacier energy–mass balance model and climate reanalysis dataset. Exceptionally large daily runoff (top 0.1 %) has only happened since 1990, indicative of an increasing frequency of major runoff events in recent decades. The largest (8.5 m3s-1 in 2023) and second largest (7.2 m3s-1 in 2001) runoffs resulted in the destruction of roads in the settlement of Qaanaaq, demonstrating the significant effects on the local community. The two largest runoffs have been attributed to intense rainfall contributing 79 % and 78 % of the daily runoffs, respectively, due to enhanced moisture and heat transport caused by an atmospheric river. Long-term annual glacier runoff increased at a rate of 0.7 Mt per decade, associated with the atmospheric warming with 0.24 °C per decade during 1950–2023. Rainfall exhibited 2.2-fold increase from 1951–1960 to 2010–2020. The variations in annual glacier runoff are controlled mainly by synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions represented by the Greenland Blocking Index (r=0.69). Composite analysis of the climate reanalysis dataset suggests particularly high sensitivity of air temperature in northern Greenland to anticyclonic conditions over Greenland, which lead to strengthened warm southerly winds. Accurate representation of such extreme conditions in climate models is crucial for predicting glacier runoff and flood occurrence in Greenland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Database: Energy & Power Source
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Header DbId: enr
DbLabel: Energy & Power Source
An: 193224487
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
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  Data: Increasing glacier runoff in northwestern Greenland simulated from 1950 to 2023.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Hydrology+%26+Earth+System+Sciences%22">Hydrology & Earth System Sciences</searchLink>. 2026, Vol. 30 Issue 7, p1849-1864. 16p.
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Runoff%22">Runoff</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Atmospheric+rivers%22">Atmospheric rivers</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Global+warming%22">Global warming</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rainfall%22">Rainfall</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Floods%22">Floods</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Absolute+sea+level+change%22">Absolute sea level change</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Greenland+ice%22">Greenland ice</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Greenland%22">Greenland</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Increased river runoff due to ice melting in Greenland contributes to sea-level rise, as well as flooding in coastal settlements, posing serious risks to local communities. To investigate fluctuations of glacier runoff in Greenland and its atmospheric drivers, long-term variations in runoff from Qaanaaq Glacier, northwestern Greenland, were reconstructed from 1950 to 2023 using a glacier energy–mass balance model and climate reanalysis dataset. Exceptionally large daily runoff (top 0.1 %) has only happened since 1990, indicative of an increasing frequency of major runoff events in recent decades. The largest (8.5 m3s-1 in 2023) and second largest (7.2 m3s-1 in 2001) runoffs resulted in the destruction of roads in the settlement of Qaanaaq, demonstrating the significant effects on the local community. The two largest runoffs have been attributed to intense rainfall contributing 79 % and 78 % of the daily runoffs, respectively, due to enhanced moisture and heat transport caused by an atmospheric river. Long-term annual glacier runoff increased at a rate of 0.7 Mt per decade, associated with the atmospheric warming with 0.24 °C per decade during 1950–2023. Rainfall exhibited 2.2-fold increase from 1951–1960 to 2010–2020. The variations in annual glacier runoff are controlled mainly by synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions represented by the Greenland Blocking Index (r=0.69). Composite analysis of the climate reanalysis dataset suggests particularly high sensitivity of air temperature in northern Greenland to anticyclonic conditions over Greenland, which lead to strengthened warm southerly winds. Accurate representation of such extreme conditions in climate models is crucial for predicting glacier runoff and flood occurrence in Greenland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=enr&AN=193224487
RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.5194/hess-30-1849-2026
    Languages:
      – Code: eng
        Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 16
        StartPage: 1849
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Runoff
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Atmospheric rivers
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Global warming
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Rainfall
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Floods
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Absolute sea level change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Climate change
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Greenland ice
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Greenland
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Increasing glacier runoff in northwestern Greenland simulated from 1950 to 2023.
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            NameFull: Kondo, Ken
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          Name:
            NameFull: Fujita, Koji
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            – D: 01
              M: 04
              Text: 2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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              Value: 30
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              Value: 7
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            – TitleFull: Hydrology & Earth System Sciences
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