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Effect of Minimum Cell Sizes and Confidence Interval Sizes for Special Education Subgroups on School-Level AYP Determinations. Synthesis Report 61

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Title: Effect of Minimum Cell Sizes and Confidence Interval Sizes for Special Education Subgroups on School-Level AYP Determinations. Synthesis Report 61
Language: English
Authors: Simpson, Mary Ann, Gong, Brian, Marion, Scott, National Center on Educational Outcomes, Minneapolis, MN., Council of Chief State School Officers, Washington, DC., National Association of State Directors of Special Education, Washington, DC.
Source: National Center on Educational Outcomes, University of Minnesota. 2006.
Availability: National Center on Educational Outcomes. University of Minnesota, 350 Elliott Hall, 75 East River Road, Minneapolis, MN 55455. Tel: 612-626-1530; Fax: 612-624-0879; e-mail: nceo@umn.edu; Web site: http://education.umn.edu/NCEO/
Peer Reviewed: N
Page Count: 24
Publication Date: 2006
Sponsoring Agency: Special Education Programs (ED/OSERS), Washington, DC.
Document Type: Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: Elementary Education
Descriptors: Intervals, Educational Improvement, Reading Achievement, Achievement Tests, Accountability, Academic Achievement, Special Education, Federal Legislation, Validity, Reliability, Disabilities, Mathematics Achievement
Laws, Policies and Program Identifiers: Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, No Child Left Behind Act 2001
Abstract: This study addresses three questions: First, considering the full group of students and the special education subgroup, what is the likely effect of minimum cell size and confidence interval size on school-level Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) determinations? Second, what effects do the changing minimum cell sizes have on inclusion of special education students, especially for schools that are declared as "meeting AYP"? Third, with the NCLB requirement that schools assess grade levels 3-8 in their AYP calculations beginning in the 2005-2006 academic year, what is the likely effect of including these additional students in school-level AYP determinations? To address these questions, data from five states were used to model confidence interval and cell-size combinations. The study used a single year of elementary/middle school mathematics and reading achievement test data from five states, modeling selected minimum cell sizes from 10 to 100, and confidence interval sizes from 70% to 99%. Increases in minimum cell sizes for the special education subgroup were associated with a large increase in the number of schools meeting AYP targets for each of the five states assessed. Increased confidence interval sizes were also associated with an increase in pass rates, but a much smaller increase. While raising the minimum-n is an effective means of increasing the passing rates of schools, it does so at a considerable cost to special education students in terms of being excluded from the accountability system. When the data were modeled to reflect testing in all grades 3-8, many more special education students' results are included in the accountability system, assuming that states will not increase the minimum-n. If the implicit theory of action guiding NCLB accountability requirements is to improve instruction and thus outcomes for all students, schools and districts must be accountable for all subgroups in order to ensure that these students are appropriately served. The effect of increasing the minimum-n to exclude substantial portions of special education students must be considered a threat to the validity of the accountability system.
Abstractor: ERIC
Number of References: 6
Entry Date: 2007
Accession Number: ED495892
Database: ERIC
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  Data: Effect of Minimum Cell Sizes and Confidence Interval Sizes for Special Education Subgroups on School-Level AYP Determinations. Synthesis Report 61
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  Data: National Center on Educational Outcomes. University of Minnesota, 350 Elliott Hall, 75 East River Road, Minneapolis, MN 55455. Tel: 612-626-1530; Fax: 612-624-0879; e-mail: nceo@umn.edu; Web site: http://education.umn.edu/NCEO/
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  Data: This study addresses three questions: First, considering the full group of students and the special education subgroup, what is the likely effect of minimum cell size and confidence interval size on school-level Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) determinations? Second, what effects do the changing minimum cell sizes have on inclusion of special education students, especially for schools that are declared as "meeting AYP"? Third, with the NCLB requirement that schools assess grade levels 3-8 in their AYP calculations beginning in the 2005-2006 academic year, what is the likely effect of including these additional students in school-level AYP determinations? To address these questions, data from five states were used to model confidence interval and cell-size combinations. The study used a single year of elementary/middle school mathematics and reading achievement test data from five states, modeling selected minimum cell sizes from 10 to 100, and confidence interval sizes from 70% to 99%. Increases in minimum cell sizes for the special education subgroup were associated with a large increase in the number of schools meeting AYP targets for each of the five states assessed. Increased confidence interval sizes were also associated with an increase in pass rates, but a much smaller increase. While raising the minimum-n is an effective means of increasing the passing rates of schools, it does so at a considerable cost to special education students in terms of being excluded from the accountability system. When the data were modeled to reflect testing in all grades 3-8, many more special education students' results are included in the accountability system, assuming that states will not increase the minimum-n. If the implicit theory of action guiding NCLB accountability requirements is to improve instruction and thus outcomes for all students, schools and districts must be accountable for all subgroups in order to ensure that these students are appropriately served. The effect of increasing the minimum-n to exclude substantial portions of special education students must be considered a threat to the validity of the accountability system.
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