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NEPC Review: 'Testing Theories of Why: Four Keys to Interpreting US Student Achievement Trends' (American Enterprise Institute, January 2025)

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Title: NEPC Review: 'Testing Theories of Why: Four Keys to Interpreting US Student Achievement Trends' (American Enterprise Institute, January 2025)
Language: English
Authors: Chris Domaleski, University of Colorado at Boulder, National Education Policy Center (NEPC)
Source: National Education Policy Center. 2025.
Availability: National Education Policy Center. School of Education 249 UCB University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309. Tel: 303-735-5290; e-mail: nepc@colorado.edu; Web site: http://nepc.colorado.edu
Peer Reviewed: Y
Page Count: 9
Publication Date: 2025
Sponsoring Agency: Great Lakes Center for Education Research and Practice
Document Type: Reports - Evaluative
Opinion Papers
Education Level: Secondary Education
Elementary Secondary Education
Descriptors: Educational Trends, Trend Analysis, Research Reports, Review (Reexamination), Academic Achievement, Scores, Educational Research, National Competency Tests, Achievement Tests, Foreign Countries, International Assessment, Secondary School Students, Adults, Elementary Secondary Education, Science Achievement, Science Tests, Mathematics Achievement, Mathematics Tests
Assessment and Survey Identifiers: National Assessment of Educational Progress, Program for International Student Assessment, Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC), Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study
Abstract: A recent American Enterprise Institute report examines long-term patterns in student performance using data from national and international assessments. It identifies four major trends: (1) student performance peaked in the early 2010s before declining, (2) lower-performing students have seen the sharpest declines, (3) achievement gaps in the U.S. are widening more than in other countries, and (4) similar declines appear in adult literacy and numeracy scores. The report points to these trends to challenge implicit theories, such as the view that recent performance declines are solely a pandemic effect or that the effects are uniform for all students. Yet, while the report does effectively highlight these key trends, its analytical approach raises concerns. It overlooks important data sources that could provide a fuller picture. Additionally, it does not account for sources of uncertainty or provide guidance to detect differences that matter. Finally, the report's effort to "pressure test" possible explanations is underdeveloped--its theories lack depth and fail to engage with established research on causal inference. While the report is a useful starting point for discussions on U.S. student achievement, it falls short of delivering a framework for understanding "why" these trends exist.
Abstractor: As Provided
Entry Date: 2025
Accession Number: ED677373
Database: ERIC
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  Data: National Education Policy Center. School of Education 249 UCB University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309. Tel: 303-735-5290; e-mail: nepc@colorado.edu; Web site: http://nepc.colorado.edu
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  Data: A recent American Enterprise Institute report examines long-term patterns in student performance using data from national and international assessments. It identifies four major trends: (1) student performance peaked in the early 2010s before declining, (2) lower-performing students have seen the sharpest declines, (3) achievement gaps in the U.S. are widening more than in other countries, and (4) similar declines appear in adult literacy and numeracy scores. The report points to these trends to challenge implicit theories, such as the view that recent performance declines are solely a pandemic effect or that the effects are uniform for all students. Yet, while the report does effectively highlight these key trends, its analytical approach raises concerns. It overlooks important data sources that could provide a fuller picture. Additionally, it does not account for sources of uncertainty or provide guidance to detect differences that matter. Finally, the report's effort to "pressure test" possible explanations is underdeveloped--its theories lack depth and fail to engage with established research on causal inference. While the report is a useful starting point for discussions on U.S. student achievement, it falls short of delivering a framework for understanding "why" these trends exist.
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    Languages:
      – Text: English
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        PageCount: 9
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Educational Trends
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Trend Analysis
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Research Reports
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      – SubjectFull: Review (Reexamination)
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      – SubjectFull: Academic Achievement
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      – SubjectFull: Scores
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      – SubjectFull: Educational Research
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      – SubjectFull: National Competency Tests
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      – SubjectFull: Achievement Tests
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      – SubjectFull: Foreign Countries
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: International Assessment
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      – SubjectFull: Secondary School Students
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      – SubjectFull: Adults
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      – SubjectFull: Elementary Secondary Education
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      – SubjectFull: Science Achievement
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      – SubjectFull: Science Tests
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Mathematics Achievement
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      – SubjectFull: Mathematics Tests
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: National Assessment of Educational Progress
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Program for International Student Assessment
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      – SubjectFull: Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC)
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      – SubjectFull: Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study
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      – TitleFull: NEPC Review: 'Testing Theories of Why: Four Keys to Interpreting US Student Achievement Trends' (American Enterprise Institute, January 2025)
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              Y: 2025
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