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Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment. EdWorkingPaper No. 25-1338

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Title: Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment. EdWorkingPaper No. 25-1338
Language: English
Authors: Joshua Goodman, Joseph Winkelmann, Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University
Source: Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. 2025.
Availability: Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. Brown University Box 1985, Providence, RI 02912. Tel: 401-863-7990; Fax: 401-863-1290; e-mail: annenberg@brown.edu; Web site: https://annenberg.brown.edu/
Peer Reviewed: N
Page Count: 42
Publication Date: 2025
Document Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education
Postsecondary Education
Two Year Colleges
Descriptors: Labor Market, College Enrollment, Enrollment Trends, Community Colleges, Declining Enrollment, Education Work Relationship, Employment Opportunities, Unemployment, Economic Climate
Abstract: Declining U.S. college enrollments have triggered questions about the health of the postsecondary sector. Using institution-level data, we make four points. First, such declines are driven not by the four-year sector but by two-year community colleges, which have apparently shrunk by over 30% since the peak of the Great Recession. Second, over one-third of this apparent decline is an artifact of some community colleges being reclassified as offering four-year degrees. Third, pre-Great Recession data shows a 1 percentage point increase in the local unemployment rate increases first-time community college enrollment by 2 percent, suggesting many students are on the margin between community college and job opportunities. For-profit college enrollments are similarly countercyclical, while public and private four-year college enrollments appear acyclical. Our estimates suggest that strengthening labor markets explain about 60% of the post-Great Recession decline in first-time community college enrollment. Fourth, the marginal missing community college student appears unlikely to have completed a degree. Though declining community college enrollments are a challenge for postsecondary institutions, it is less clear whether they signal a problem for the marginal student.
Abstractor: As Provided
Entry Date: 2026
Accession Number: ED678296
Database: ERIC
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  Data: Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment. EdWorkingPaper No. 25-1338
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  Data: Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. Brown University Box 1985, Providence, RI 02912. Tel: 401-863-7990; Fax: 401-863-1290; e-mail: annenberg@brown.edu; Web site: https://annenberg.brown.edu/
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  Data: Declining U.S. college enrollments have triggered questions about the health of the postsecondary sector. Using institution-level data, we make four points. First, such declines are driven not by the four-year sector but by two-year community colleges, which have apparently shrunk by over 30% since the peak of the Great Recession. Second, over one-third of this apparent decline is an artifact of some community colleges being reclassified as offering four-year degrees. Third, pre-Great Recession data shows a 1 percentage point increase in the local unemployment rate increases first-time community college enrollment by 2 percent, suggesting many students are on the margin between community college and job opportunities. For-profit college enrollments are similarly countercyclical, while public and private four-year college enrollments appear acyclical. Our estimates suggest that strengthening labor markets explain about 60% of the post-Great Recession decline in first-time community college enrollment. Fourth, the marginal missing community college student appears unlikely to have completed a degree. Though declining community college enrollments are a challenge for postsecondary institutions, it is less clear whether they signal a problem for the marginal student.
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PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=eric&AN=ED678296
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      – Text: English
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        PageCount: 42
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      – SubjectFull: College Enrollment
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      – SubjectFull: Enrollment Trends
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      – SubjectFull: Community Colleges
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      – SubjectFull: Education Work Relationship
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      – SubjectFull: Employment Opportunities
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