Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment. EdWorkingPaper No. 25-1338
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| Title: | Labor Market Strength and Declining Community College Enrollment. EdWorkingPaper No. 25-1338 |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Authors: | Joshua Goodman, Joseph Winkelmann, Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University |
| Source: | Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. 2025. |
| Availability: | Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. Brown University Box 1985, Providence, RI 02912. Tel: 401-863-7990; Fax: 401-863-1290; e-mail: annenberg@brown.edu; Web site: https://annenberg.brown.edu/ |
| Peer Reviewed: | N |
| Page Count: | 42 |
| Publication Date: | 2025 |
| Document Type: | Reports - Research |
| Education Level: | Higher Education Postsecondary Education Two Year Colleges |
| Descriptors: | Labor Market, College Enrollment, Enrollment Trends, Community Colleges, Declining Enrollment, Education Work Relationship, Employment Opportunities, Unemployment, Economic Climate |
| Abstract: | Declining U.S. college enrollments have triggered questions about the health of the postsecondary sector. Using institution-level data, we make four points. First, such declines are driven not by the four-year sector but by two-year community colleges, which have apparently shrunk by over 30% since the peak of the Great Recession. Second, over one-third of this apparent decline is an artifact of some community colleges being reclassified as offering four-year degrees. Third, pre-Great Recession data shows a 1 percentage point increase in the local unemployment rate increases first-time community college enrollment by 2 percent, suggesting many students are on the margin between community college and job opportunities. For-profit college enrollments are similarly countercyclical, while public and private four-year college enrollments appear acyclical. Our estimates suggest that strengthening labor markets explain about 60% of the post-Great Recession decline in first-time community college enrollment. Fourth, the marginal missing community college student appears unlikely to have completed a degree. Though declining community college enrollments are a challenge for postsecondary institutions, it is less clear whether they signal a problem for the marginal student. |
| Abstractor: | As Provided |
| Entry Date: | 2026 |
| Accession Number: | ED678296 |
| Database: | ERIC |
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