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Predicting Persistence and Fadeout across Multi-Site RCTs of an Early Childhood Mathematics Curriculum Intervention. EdWorkingPaper No. 26-1365

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Title: Predicting Persistence and Fadeout across Multi-Site RCTs of an Early Childhood Mathematics Curriculum Intervention. EdWorkingPaper No. 26-1365
Language: English
Authors: Tyler W. Watts, Caroline M. Botvin (ORCID 0000-0003-2496-8123), Drew H. Bailey (ORCID 0000-0002-7812-1107), Emma R. Hart, Shira Mattera (ORCID 0009-0005-8516-3523), Douglas H. Clements (ORCID 0000-0003-1800-5099), Julie Sarama, Dale C. Farran, Mark W. Lipsey, Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University
Source: Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. 2026.
Availability: Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. Brown University Box 1985, Providence, RI 02912. Tel: 401-863-7990; Fax: 401-863-1290; e-mail: annenberg@brown.edu; Web site: https://annenberg.brown.edu/
Peer Reviewed: N
Page Count: 57
Publication Date: 2026
Sponsoring Agency: Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) (DHHS/NIH)
Heising-Simons Foundation
Overdeck Family Foundation
Richard W. Goldman Family Foundation
Institute of Education Sciences (ED)
Contract Number: 1R01HD09593001A1
R305K050157
R305A140126
R305A080200
R305A080700
Document Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: Early Childhood Education
Preschool Education
Descriptors: Early Childhood Education, Preschool Curriculum, Mathematics Education, Mathematics Achievement, Academic Persistence, Predictor Variables, Intervention, Program Effectiveness, Followup Studies, Federal Programs, Low Income Students, Social Services, Randomized Controlled Trials
Geographic Terms: New York (Buffalo), Massachusetts (Boston), Tennessee, California (San Diego), New York (New York)
Laws, Policies and Program Identifiers: Head Start
Abstract: This study examined predictors of persistence and fadeout across multiple cluster RCTs that evaluated a preschool mathematics curriculum. We used meta-analytic methods to explore how impacts on student mathematics achievement faded between post-test (i.e., endline) and one-year follow-up. We found that the magnitude of the impact at post-test was a strong predictor of the one-year follow-up impact. Contrary to popular theory, we found that intervention impacts faded faster when students attended sites that showed more learning in the year following the end of the intervention. Factors related to intervention fidelity and dosage did not strongly predict fadeout patterns after considering the magnitude of the post-test effect. Results suggest that educational program evaluators can use immediate impacts to forecast follow-up effects.
Abstractor: As Provided
IES Funded: Yes
Entry Date: 2026
Accession Number: ED678327
Database: ERIC
FullText Text:
  Availability: 0
CustomLinks:
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AccessLevel: 3
PubType: Report
PubTypeId: report
PreciseRelevancyScore: 0
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  Data: Predicting Persistence and Fadeout across Multi-Site RCTs of an Early Childhood Mathematics Curriculum Intervention. EdWorkingPaper No. 26-1365
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Tyler+W%2E+Watts%22">Tyler W. Watts</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Caroline+M%2E+Botvin%22">Caroline M. Botvin</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2496-8123">0000-0003-2496-8123</externalLink>)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Drew+H%2E+Bailey%22">Drew H. Bailey</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7812-1107">0000-0002-7812-1107</externalLink>)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Emma+R%2E+Hart%22">Emma R. Hart</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Shira+Mattera%22">Shira Mattera</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0009-0005-8516-3523">0009-0005-8516-3523</externalLink>)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Douglas+H%2E+Clements%22">Douglas H. Clements</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1800-5099">0000-0003-1800-5099</externalLink>)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Julie+Sarama%22">Julie Sarama</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dale+C%2E+Farran%22">Dale C. Farran</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Mark+W%2E+Lipsey%22">Mark W. Lipsey</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Annenberg+Institute+for+School+Reform+at+Brown+University%22">Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University</searchLink>
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  Data: Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. Brown University Box 1985, Providence, RI 02912. Tel: 401-863-7990; Fax: 401-863-1290; e-mail: annenberg@brown.edu; Web site: https://annenberg.brown.edu/
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  Data: Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) (DHHS/NIH)<br />Heising-Simons Foundation<br />Overdeck Family Foundation<br />Richard W. Goldman Family Foundation<br />Institute of Education Sciences (ED)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22New+York+%28Buffalo%29%22">New York (Buffalo)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Massachusetts+%28Boston%29%22">Massachusetts (Boston)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tennessee%22">Tennessee</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22California+%28San+Diego%29%22">California (San Diego)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22New+York+%28New+York%29%22">New York (New York)</searchLink>
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  Data: This study examined predictors of persistence and fadeout across multiple cluster RCTs that evaluated a preschool mathematics curriculum. We used meta-analytic methods to explore how impacts on student mathematics achievement faded between post-test (i.e., endline) and one-year follow-up. We found that the magnitude of the impact at post-test was a strong predictor of the one-year follow-up impact. Contrary to popular theory, we found that intervention impacts faded faster when students attended sites that showed more learning in the year following the end of the intervention. Factors related to intervention fidelity and dosage did not strongly predict fadeout patterns after considering the magnitude of the post-test effect. Results suggest that educational program evaluators can use immediate impacts to forecast follow-up effects.
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  Data: 2026
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  Data: ED678327
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=eric&AN=ED678327
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    Languages:
      – Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 57
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Early Childhood Education
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Preschool Curriculum
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Mathematics Education
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Mathematics Achievement
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Academic Persistence
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      – SubjectFull: Predictor Variables
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      – SubjectFull: Program Effectiveness
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      – SubjectFull: Federal Programs
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      – SubjectFull: Low Income Students
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      – SubjectFull: Social Services
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      – SubjectFull: Tennessee
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      – SubjectFull: California (San Diego)
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      – SubjectFull: New York (New York)
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      – SubjectFull: Head Start
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      – TitleFull: Predicting Persistence and Fadeout across Multi-Site RCTs of an Early Childhood Mathematics Curriculum Intervention. EdWorkingPaper No. 26-1365
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