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Strategic Surprise and the Future of Educational R&D

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Title: Strategic Surprise and the Future of Educational R&D
Language: English
Authors: Melina Uncapher, Jeremy Roschelle, Digital Promise, Empirical Education Inc., Institute of Education Sciences (ED)
Source: Digital Promise. 2025.
Availability: Digital Promise. 1001 Connecticut Avenue NW Suite 935, Washington DC 20036. Tel: 202-450-3675; e-mail: contact@digitalpromise.org; Web site: https://digitalpromise.org/
Peer Reviewed: N
Page Count: 16
Publication Date: 2025
Intended Audience: Researchers; Policymakers
Document Type: Reports - Evaluative
Descriptors: Educational Research, Research and Development, Educational Development, Educational Finance, Systems Approach, Futures (of Society), Educational Change, Educational Strategies, Learning Processes, Strategic Planning
Abstract: For decades, education R&D has delivered mostly incremental change, consistent with Tyack and Cuban's observation in Tinkering Towards Utopia (1995) that systems tend to assimilate new technologies. Some innovation initiatives aim to engineer "planned serendipity"--structuring teams and infrastructure so that unexpected insights are more likely to arise and propagate (Michael H. Levine, personal communication, 2025). Today's environment is different: generative AI, platform-level data, and new research infrastructures are creating strategic surprises--rapid shifts that outpace traditional sensing and response. We propose re-architecting education R&D for agility, responsiveness, and breakthrough potential. Drawing on ARPA-style (federal Advanced Research Projects Agencies) (NASEM, 2017) models (and our work with SEERNet and Advanced Education Research and Development Fund (AERDF), we contrast legacy approaches with a surprise-ready architecture along four dimensions: (1) framing commitments, (2) problem definition, (3) project/talent model, and (4) focal outcomes. We illustrate with six "ripe problem" examples that compress the observe-orient-decide-act loop in schools, and we conclude with role-specific recommendations for researchers, developers, funders, and systems leaders. Our goal is a field that not only studies change, but orchestrates the conditions--capable people and enabling environments--under which transformative learning improvements can emerge.
Abstractor: As Provided
IES Funded: Yes
Entry Date: 2026
Accession Number: ED678884
Database: ERIC
FullText Text:
  Availability: 0
CustomLinks:
  – Url: https://eric.ed.gov/contentdelivery/servlet/ERICServlet?accno=ED678884
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PubType: Report
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  Data: Strategic Surprise and the Future of Educational R&D
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Melina+Uncapher%22">Melina Uncapher</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jeremy+Roschelle%22">Jeremy Roschelle</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Digital+Promise%22">Digital Promise</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Empirical+Education+Inc%2E%22">Empirical Education Inc.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Institute+of+Education+Sciences+%28ED%29%22">Institute of Education Sciences (ED)</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="SO" term="%22Digital+Promise%22"><i>Digital Promise</i></searchLink>. 2025.
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  Data: Digital Promise. 1001 Connecticut Avenue NW Suite 935, Washington DC 20036. Tel: 202-450-3675; e-mail: contact@digitalpromise.org; Web site: https://digitalpromise.org/
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  Data: 16
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  Data: 2025
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  Data: Researchers; Policymakers
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  Data: Reports - Evaluative
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Educational+Research%22">Educational Research</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Research+and+Development%22">Research and Development</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Educational+Development%22">Educational Development</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Educational+Finance%22">Educational Finance</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Systems+Approach%22">Systems Approach</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Futures+%28of+Society%29%22">Futures (of Society)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Educational+Change%22">Educational Change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Educational+Strategies%22">Educational Strategies</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Learning+Processes%22">Learning Processes</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Strategic+Planning%22">Strategic Planning</searchLink>
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  Data: For decades, education R&D has delivered mostly incremental change, consistent with Tyack and Cuban's observation in Tinkering Towards Utopia (1995) that systems tend to assimilate new technologies. Some innovation initiatives aim to engineer "planned serendipity"--structuring teams and infrastructure so that unexpected insights are more likely to arise and propagate (Michael H. Levine, personal communication, 2025). Today's environment is different: generative AI, platform-level data, and new research infrastructures are creating strategic surprises--rapid shifts that outpace traditional sensing and response. We propose re-architecting education R&D for agility, responsiveness, and breakthrough potential. Drawing on ARPA-style (federal Advanced Research Projects Agencies) (NASEM, 2017) models (and our work with SEERNet and Advanced Education Research and Development Fund (AERDF), we contrast legacy approaches with a surprise-ready architecture along four dimensions: (1) framing commitments, (2) problem definition, (3) project/talent model, and (4) focal outcomes. We illustrate with six "ripe problem" examples that compress the observe-orient-decide-act loop in schools, and we conclude with role-specific recommendations for researchers, developers, funders, and systems leaders. Our goal is a field that not only studies change, but orchestrates the conditions--capable people and enabling environments--under which transformative learning improvements can emerge.
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  Label: Abstractor
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  Data: As Provided
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  Data: Yes
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  Data: 2026
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  Data: ED678884
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=eric&AN=ED678884
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      – Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 16
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Educational Research
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Research and Development
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Educational Development
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Educational Finance
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Systems Approach
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Futures (of Society)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Educational Change
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      – SubjectFull: Educational Strategies
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Learning Processes
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Strategic Planning
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Strategic Surprise and the Future of Educational R&D
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              M: 11
              Type: published
              Y: 2025
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