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Using SAT Math Scores to Identify Risk of Low Performance in First-Year College Math

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Title: Using SAT Math Scores to Identify Risk of Low Performance in First-Year College Math
Language: English
Authors: Jessica P. Marini, Emily J. Shaw, David Guzman, College Board
Source: College Board. 2026.
Availability: College Board. 250 Vesey Street, New York, NY 10281. Tel: 212-713-8000; e-mail: research@collegeboard.org; Web site: http://research.collegeboard.org
Peer Reviewed: N
Page Count: 19
Publication Date: 2026
Document Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education
Postsecondary Education
High Schools
Secondary Education
Descriptors: College Entrance Examinations, Mathematics Achievement, Scores, At Risk Students, Low Achievement, College Freshmen, High School Students, Grade Point Average, Predictor Variables, Student Characteristics, Grades (Scholastic)
Assessment and Survey Identifiers: SAT (College Admission Test)
Abstract: This study examines whether SAT Math scores provide meaningful information for identifying students at risk of earning a D, F, or withdrawing (DFW) from a first-year college math course, and whether that informational value shifted from a pre-pandemic (2018) to a post-pandemic (2023) cohort. Using data from the same 57 diverse four-year institutions, we estimate standardized mean differences and logistic regression models predicting DFW outcomes from SAT Math scores and high school GPA (HSGPA). Across both cohorts, SAT Math scores consistently differentiated students at risk of very poor performance, providing substantial incremental information beyond HSGPA. Moreover, the magnitude of this differentiation increased in 2023, particularly at more selective institutions. While HSGPA remains an important indicator of academic preparation, these findings suggest that SAT Math scores offer distinct and, in many contexts, increasingly valuable information for identifying students who may benefit from early academic support in math coursework.
Abstractor: As Provided
Entry Date: 2026
Accession Number: ED679434
Database: ERIC
FullText Text:
  Availability: 0
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  Data: College Board. 250 Vesey Street, New York, NY 10281. Tel: 212-713-8000; e-mail: research@collegeboard.org; Web site: http://research.collegeboard.org
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  Data: This study examines whether SAT Math scores provide meaningful information for identifying students at risk of earning a D, F, or withdrawing (DFW) from a first-year college math course, and whether that informational value shifted from a pre-pandemic (2018) to a post-pandemic (2023) cohort. Using data from the same 57 diverse four-year institutions, we estimate standardized mean differences and logistic regression models predicting DFW outcomes from SAT Math scores and high school GPA (HSGPA). Across both cohorts, SAT Math scores consistently differentiated students at risk of very poor performance, providing substantial incremental information beyond HSGPA. Moreover, the magnitude of this differentiation increased in 2023, particularly at more selective institutions. While HSGPA remains an important indicator of academic preparation, these findings suggest that SAT Math scores offer distinct and, in many contexts, increasingly valuable information for identifying students who may benefit from early academic support in math coursework.
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      – Text: English
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        PageCount: 19
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      – SubjectFull: College Entrance Examinations
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Mathematics Achievement
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      – SubjectFull: Scores
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      – SubjectFull: At Risk Students
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      – SubjectFull: Predictor Variables
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      – SubjectFull: Student Characteristics
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      – SubjectFull: Grades (Scholastic)
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      – SubjectFull: SAT (College Admission Test)
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