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Homeschool Participation: Post-Pandemic Persistence and Growth Trends

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Title: Homeschool Participation: Post-Pandemic Persistence and Growth Trends
Language: English
Authors: Angela R. Watson
Source: Journal of School Choice. 2024 18(4):444-460.
Availability: Routledge. Available from: Taylor & Francis, Ltd. 530 Walnut Street Suite 850, Philadelphia, PA 19106. Tel: 800-354-1420; Tel: 215-625-8900; Fax: 215-207-0050; Web site: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals
Peer Reviewed: Y
Page Count: 17
Publication Date: 2024
Document Type: Journal Articles
Reports - Research
Descriptors: Home Schooling, Family Involvement, Participation, Educational Trends, COVID-19, Pandemics, Persistence
DOI: 10.1080/15582159.2024.2422742
ISSN: 1558-2159
1558-2167
Abstract: United States homeschooling participation increased dramatically during the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic. Education scholars theorized that homeschool participation would recede along with pandemic disruptions. This study examines whether that theory proved true. I use longitudinal annual state-reported homeschool participation counts supplemented with other data in states and years where state data is not publicly available. I find a small and brief decline in homeschool participation one- and two-years post-pandemic. However, the majority of states for which data are available report increased homeschool participation three years after the pandemic height. Within this growth, I will discuss three interesting trends.
Abstractor: As Provided
Entry Date: 2024
Accession Number: EJ1450957
Database: ERIC
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  Value: <anid>AN0181032229;[2y6a]01oct.24;2024Nov25.04:19;v2.2.500</anid> <title id="AN0181032229-1">Homeschool Participation: Post-Pandemic Persistence and Growth Trends </title> <p>United States homeschooling participation increased dramatically during the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic. Education scholars theorized that homeschool participation would recede along with pandemic disruptions. This study examines whether that theory proved true. I use longitudinal annual state-reported homeschool participation counts supplemented with other data in states and years where state data is not publicly available. I find a small and brief decline in homeschool participation one- and two-years post-pandemic. However, the majority of states for which data are available report increased homeschool participation three years after the pandemic height. Within this growth, I will discuss three interesting trends.</p> <p>Keywords: Homeschool; home education; participation data; pandemic</p> <hd id="AN0181032229-2">Introduction</hd> <p>While United States homeschooling slowly grew for decades (Bielick, [<reflink idref="bib2" id="ref1">2</reflink>]; Bielick et al., [<reflink idref="bib3" id="ref2">3</reflink>]; Princiotta & Bielick, [<reflink idref="bib19" id="ref3">19</reflink>]; Watson, [<reflink idref="bib26" id="ref4">26</reflink>]) despite opposition (Bartholet, [<reflink idref="bib1" id="ref5">1</reflink>]; Wolf et al., [<reflink idref="bib32" id="ref6">32</reflink>]), participation increased dramatically during the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic (Eggleston & Fields, [<reflink idref="bib8" id="ref7">8</reflink>];; Watson, [<reflink idref="bib28" id="ref8">28</reflink>]). Education scholars and policy experts theorized that homeschool participation would recede along with pandemic disruptions. This study examines whether, at several years post-pandemic, that theory proved true. Specifically, did homeschool participation decline in the years following the pandemic? If so, when, where, and why (or why not)?</p> <p>I use longitudinal annual state reported homeschool participation counts supplemented with other data in a few states and years where state data is not otherwise publicly available. I find that while there was a small and brief decline in homeschool participation in most states one- and two-years post-pandemic, the majority of states for which data are available report an increase in homeschooled participation three years after the pandemic height. Within this growth, I will discuss three interesting trends. Further, the growth in homeschooling has occurred alongside declining enrollment in public schools making it all the more remarkable. I conclude with a discussion of the results and offer potential reasons for the most recent growth trends.</p> <hd id="AN0181032229-3">Review of the literature</hd> <p></p> <hd id="AN0181032229-4">Brief history of homeschooling</hd> <p>The most common form of education in the 1700s and 1800s (Gaither, [<reflink idref="bib9" id="ref9">9</reflink>]), homeschooling was later outlawed throughout most of the country (Dumas et al., [<reflink idref="bib7" id="ref10">7</reflink>]). Then in the 1970s, 80s and 90s, alongside desegregation efforts and the removal of prayer from schools (Gaither, [<reflink idref="bib10" id="ref11">10</reflink>]), homeschooling was legalized in most states and began to grow (Bielick et al., [<reflink idref="bib3" id="ref12">3</reflink>]). By the early 2000s homeschooling was allowed in some form in all states. During this time, average homeschool participation was between 2% and 3% of the U.S. K-12 population (Bielick, [<reflink idref="bib2" id="ref13">2</reflink>]; Bielick et al., [<reflink idref="bib3" id="ref14">3</reflink>]; Princiotta & Bielick, [<reflink idref="bib19" id="ref15">19</reflink>]; Redford et al., [<reflink idref="bib20" id="ref16">20</reflink>]). Slow and steady growth continued until around 2012 (Redford et al., [<reflink idref="bib20" id="ref17">20</reflink>]) when growth stalled and then declined in 2016 and 2019 (Hudson et al., [<reflink idref="bib13" id="ref18">13</reflink>]; McQuiggan et al., [<reflink idref="bib16" id="ref19">16</reflink>]; Watson et al., [<reflink idref="bib31" id="ref20">31</reflink>]). See Figure 1, based on total participation percentages from the National Household Education Surveys over time that depicts the total estimated percentage of homeschoolers in the U.S. population enter the COVID-19 pandemic.</p> <p>Graph: Figure 1. NHES average national homeschool population.</p> <hd id="AN0181032229-5">Pandemic growth</hd> <p>As traditional brick-and-mortar schools closed across the country in the spring of 2020, most families were schooling from home (NCES, [<reflink idref="bib18" id="ref21">18</reflink>]). By the next fall, with most schools still closed, families with means began to create their own "pandemic pods" or learning pods that consisted of a few families banding together to create small learning environments for their children (Watson, [<reflink idref="bib27" id="ref22">27</reflink>]). During this time, homeschooling in name and practice[<reflink idref="bib1" id="ref23">1</reflink>] increased dramatically (Eggleston & Fields, [<reflink idref="bib8" id="ref24">8</reflink>]).</p> <p>Homeschooling growth was common knowledge, as news stories frequently reported on homeschooling, microschools, and pandemic pods (Horn, [<reflink idref="bib12" id="ref25">12</reflink>]; Jamison et al., [<reflink idref="bib14" id="ref26">14</reflink>]). Also common was the assumption that as the pandemic abated and the disruptions waned, students would return to traditional schools as normal.</p> <p>However, as the months and years passed, that assumption did not fully become a reality. Traditional schools saw pervasive decreases in enrollment following the pandemic (Dee, [<reflink idref="bib6" id="ref27">6</reflink>]). Reasons proposed for these declines ranged from miscounted and lost students (Dee, [<reflink idref="bib6" id="ref28">6</reflink>]), declining birth rates (US Census Bureau, [<reflink idref="bib23" id="ref29">23</reflink>]), and the expansion of school choice (Wang et al., [<reflink idref="bib25" id="ref30">25</reflink>]). While homeschooling was sometimes mentioned, it was generally not thought to be a primary driving factor (Dee, [<reflink idref="bib6" id="ref31">6</reflink>]). Nevertheless, as reports of traditional school enrollment decreases became common, so did reports of homeschooling increases.</p> <p>Indeed by 2021, the U.S. Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey (Pulse), first administered during the height of the pandemic, captured self-reported homeschool participation rates of 11% (Smith & Watson, [<reflink idref="bib21" id="ref32">21</reflink>]; US Census Bureau, [<reflink idref="bib23" id="ref33">23</reflink>]). There was some criticism that these counts were inflated by a misunderstanding of the question regarding mode of schooling and what actually counted as "homeschooling" in the pandemic school closure context (US Census Bureau, [<reflink idref="bib23" id="ref34">23</reflink>]). Whatever the case, the percentage reported by the original Pulse accurately reflects those who reported that they thought they were homeschooling. This distinction is important because whether they were actually "homeschooling" according to some preferred definition, people self-identified as homeschoolers at record numbers. In later phases of the Pulse survey the question regarding the mode of education was changed to more specifically represent actual homeschool participation (Smith & Watson, [<reflink idref="bib21" id="ref35">21</reflink>]).</p> <p>As of the 2022–23 school year, nearly 6% of all K-12 students in America were homeschooled, compared to an estimated 2.8% before the pandemic (Smith & Watson, [<reflink idref="bib22" id="ref36">22</reflink>]). For comparison, private school students represented around 9% of the total school-aged population, and charter school students represented 7%. By 2023–24, several years after the beginning of the pandemic, that percentage held at 6% (Smith & Watson, [<reflink idref="bib22" id="ref37">22</reflink>]; Smith & Watson, [<reflink idref="bib21" id="ref38">21</reflink>]).</p> <p>These outcomes defied predictions that newly homeschooled students would return en masse to traditional schools post-pandemic. Again, whether these are all "true" homeschoolers by the strictest definition[<reflink idref="bib2" id="ref39">2</reflink>] is somewhat irrelevant. These people identify as or are legally counted as homeschoolers. Additionally, this percentage captures homeschool participation at a single point in time – those who identify as homeschooling at the time of the surveys. It does not capture the complete magnitude of the influence of homeschooling on the education system. For example, new work indicates that large percentages of homeschooled students move in and out of education sectors (Cheng, [<reflink idref="bib4" id="ref40">4</reflink>]). This means that millions and millions of American families likely homeschool a child at some time thus expanding the impact and broadening our understanding of homeschooling in the larger education landscape.</p> <p>However, the discussion above revolves around estimates of homeschool participation gathered from nationally representative survey samples of the American population. These samples can be biased for reasons including small sample size as relatively few homeschooled people actually answer the survey, and self-selection bias as those who do answer the survey on behalf of homeschoolers may be different than those who do not answer the survey, thus skewing results (Henke et al., [<reflink idref="bib11" id="ref41">11</reflink>]). So, while these surveys provide much-needed information, they may not tell the whole story about homeschooling trends.</p> <p>Luckily, another source of homeschool participation data exists. Currently, 30 states collect and publicly report information on homeschool participation. A few other states collect but do not report data, and several states do not collect homeschool participation data and therefore cannot report what they do not have. All in all, about 20 states do not report annual homeschool participation (Watson, [<reflink idref="bib28" id="ref42">28</reflink>],[<reflink idref="bib30" id="ref43">30</reflink>]).</p> <p>This study examines existing longitudinal state-reported homeschool participation to better understand trends in post-pandemic homeschooling. While the conversation around homeschool policy usually revolves around national findings, this study also considers nuance across and within states for a deeper consideration of what is occurring and where. Finally, this study offers some thought on the "why" of these trends and highlights the need for more information to better inform understanding and, ultimately, policy regarding homeschool participation in America.</p> <hd id="AN0181032229-6">Data and methods</hd> <p>In this study, I use longitudinal annual homeschool participation data collected from state departments of education and housed at the Johns Hopkins Homeschool Hub (Watson, [<reflink idref="bib28" id="ref44">28</reflink>],). While this dataset contains all available information on homeschooling reported by states for over 20 years, this study only includes states that have data for the years under examination. Specifically, I must have at least two years of consecutive data for the years under study for a state to be included. Thus, some states are included in some years and drop out of the analysis in others.</p> <p>The Hub data contain information from 26 to 30 states for most years under examination here. In some years there are an additional four states. The data reported for these states were collected by researchers for the Washington Post homeschooling series published in 2023 (Jamison et al., [<reflink idref="bib14" id="ref45">14</reflink>]). These additional states do not otherwise report annual homeschool participation, so continued data reporting was not feasible for this study. However, I leverage these data for the available years as they provide valuable information on states where little else is known about homeschool participation. See Figure 2 for states used in this analysis. Note that some states only have data available for some years.</p> <p>MAP: Figure 2. Map of included states.</p> <p>In order to compare post-pandemic participation to that before the pandemic I use the 2019–20 academic year as the pre-pandemic baseline. While the pandemic began in the late winter of 2019, it did not impact the U.S. and certainly not the school system until the late spring of 2020. To be counted as a homeschooler in the 2019–20 academic year, parents would have to remove their children from the public or private setting and report them as homeschooled. During the chaos of Spring 2020, it is unlikely that parents would have taken steps to officially switch to homeschooling in what remained of the spring semester. Some may argue that 2018–19 could offer a better comparison, as some state counts may have been impacted by the pandemic disruptions in the spring of 2020. This is a valid concern. Most states report the annual homeschooled student count in the fall of the academic year, but some states continue to count throughout the year. Therefore, the baseline participation counts from 2019 to 2020 in this analysis may be inflated. To whatever degree that happened, it means that the difference between pre- and post-pandemic participation would be larger, not smaller, meaning that homeschooling may have grown more than is reflected here. Thus, these estimates would serve as lower-bound estimates of reported growth. Having collected and worked with these data, I made the informed decision to use 2019–20 as the baseline year but acknowledge that it is a fuzzy line between pre- and post-pandemic eras.</p> <p>These data have several additional limitations. First, they do not include nearly half the states. Therefore, they reveal little about homeschool participation in those missing states. Further, the data are only as accurate as what the state collects and reports, and the findings based on these data are similarly limited. I do not adjust or otherwise clean the state-reported data and accept it as reported by the states. While there is likely wide variation in the accuracy of the data, I accept these limitations because other data sources have similar limitations and the benefits from findings based on these data, however flawed, far outweigh any drawbacks.</p> <p>Finally, while many states require families to report their homeschooled students, it is unclear how many families choose not to report. Alternatively, there is no reason for a family to report that they are homeschooling a child who actually attends a traditional school. Therefore, these data represent state-reported homeschool participation and are understood to be a lower bound count of actual homeschool participation within a state.</p> <hd id="AN0181032229-7">Findings</hd> <p>Usually, discussions of homeschool participation occur at the national level. However, this view may be too reductive as homeschool policy is set at the state-level and there is great variation in policies likely to impact participation and reporting within states. Similarly, small changes in participation in states with large homeschool populations can overshadow large participation changes in small states. For example, North Carolina has a hundred thousand homeschooled students while several other states with small populations have a couple of thousand. Therefore, without examining state level trends, national trends could be driven by changes in a few large states and may mask important nuances that limit understanding of current trends. This study, then, focuses on state-level analysis for a more refined view of American homeschooling.</p> <p>In order to orient this study in the historical homeschool participation context, I first examine growth across states for which annual data are available. Simply calculating the percentage growth and number of states with growth year over year reveals homeschool participation trends prior to the pandemic. Table 1 offers a comparison of homeschool participation growth over the prior year. For example, in the 2010–11 academic year, there was an eleven thousand student or 2.8% increase in homeschool participation over the prior year. Additionally, 18 of 26 states with data showed growth in homeschool participation or 69% of all states with data.</p> <p>Table 1. Comparisons of homeschool participation in the prior year.</p> <p> <ephtml> <table><thead><tr><td>Academic year</td><td>Total states</td><td>Total increase</td><td>Growth states #</td><td>Growth states %</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2010–11</td><td>26</td><td>11,578</td><td>18</td><td>69%</td></tr><tr><td>2011–12</td><td>27</td><td>1,942</td><td>13</td><td>48%</td></tr><tr><td>2012–13</td><td>28</td><td>20,653</td><td>22</td><td>79%</td></tr><tr><td>2013–14</td><td>26</td><td>29,847</td><td>25</td><td>96%</td></tr><tr><td>2014–15</td><td>27</td><td>32,479</td><td>23</td><td>85%</td></tr><tr><td>2015–16</td><td>28</td><td>24,635</td><td>20</td><td>71%</td></tr><tr><td>2016–17</td><td>28</td><td>18,758</td><td>22</td><td>79%</td></tr><tr><td>2017–18</td><td>29</td><td>16,264</td><td>20</td><td>70%</td></tr><tr><td>2018–19</td><td>33</td><td>37,695</td><td>27</td><td>82%</td></tr><tr><td>2019–20</td><td>33</td><td>47,956</td><td>25</td><td>76%</td></tr><tr><td>2020–21</td><td>34</td><td>313,783</td><td>34</td><td>100%</td></tr><tr><td>2021–22</td><td>34</td><td>−33,156</td><td>10</td><td>29%</td></tr><tr><td>2022–23</td><td>30</td><td>−65,415</td><td>5</td><td>17%</td></tr><tr><td>2023–24</td><td>20</td><td>21,294</td><td>18</td><td>90%</td></tr></tbody></table> </ephtml> </p> <p>Similarly, 2013 was a strong growth (7.5%) year for homeschooling with 96% of states showing growth over the prior year. In reviewing Table 1, it is also worth noting that homeschool participation in this sample of states experienced a 6.5% increase in 2019–20, the baseline year for this study. That large growth could indicate that some of the pandemic participation increases are included in that year. However, there are similar and even larger increases in the 2013–14 and 2014–15 academic years, so these may be normal fluctuations.</p> <p>Figure 3 depicts average homeschool growth over the prior year across all states in the sample for a given year. Note that the number of states included changes over time as shown in Table 1. While this is not an ideal analysis, I use this strategy to include as much information on as many states as possible and compare the average percent increase across years despite the change in the states and number of states included across years.</p> <p>Graph: Figure 3. Average increase in homeschool growth over prior year.</p> <p>In general, since 2010, homeschooling has increased by around two to seven percent a year. Homeschool participation increased by 39% in the 2020–21 school year, declined by 3% in 2021–22 and another 7% in 2022–23. However, the available data indicate that the decline trend reversed in the 20,223–24 school year, increasing by 4% over the prior year.</p> <p>However, the methods used above show changes from year to year but not overall persistence. In this study, I am also interested in the degree to which homeschool growth during the pandemic persisted. For this analysis, I compare the baseline state reported homeschool participation counts in the 2019–20 academic year to those for each year going forward. The outcome is the average net increase that has persisted over time since the pandemic.</p> <p>For example, as shown in Table 2, there was a 39% increase in homeschool participation across 34 states for which data are available from 2019 to 2020 (before the pandemic) to 2020–21 and all 34 states reported growth. This represents the peak of pandemic increases in homeschool participation.</p> <p>Table 2. Comparison to homeschool participation before the pandemic, 2019–20.</p> <p> <ephtml> <table><thead><tr><td>Academic year</td><td>Total states</td><td>Net increase</td><td>Net increase %</td><td>Growth states #</td><td>Growth States %</td></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>2020–21</td><td>34</td><td>313,783</td><td>39</td><td>34</td><td>100%</td></tr><tr><td>2021–22</td><td>34</td><td>280,627</td><td>35</td><td>34</td><td>100%</td></tr><tr><td>2022–23</td><td>30</td><td>168,144</td><td>23</td><td>29</td><td>97%</td></tr><tr><td>2023–24</td><td>20</td><td>94,728</td><td>22</td><td>18</td><td>95%*</td></tr></tbody></table> </ephtml> </p> <p>In 2021–22 there was a net 35% increase in homeschooling since the beginning of the pandemic, meaning that homeschool participation declined slightly one year after the pandemic highs. This declining trend continued the next year. In 2022–23[<reflink idref="bib3" id="ref46">3</reflink>] the net gain in homeschooling went from 39% at the height of the pandemic to 23%. Then in 2023–24, there was a one percentage point further decline in net homeschool participation. Despite these declines, most states in the sample report net increased participation, meaning that despite declining participation, nearly all states had higher homeschool participation at several years post pandemic than they did prior to the pandemic. Only Maryland and New Hampshire had lower participation in 2023-24 than in 2019-20. This finding shows that one or two states are not driving this trend.</p> <p>Further, nearly all states in 2023–24 also show an increase in homeschool participation over the prior year. When comparing homeschool participation between 2022–23 and 2023–24 I find increases in 18 of the 20 states with available data.[<reflink idref="bib4" id="ref47">4</reflink>] Of the two states reporting declining homeschool enrollment, Vermont, and New Hampshire, one is questionable. While homeschool participation in New Hampshire has declined, that decline correlates with the passing of a universal education savings account (ESA) program in that state. Homeschooled students are eligible for benefits from the ESA however, those who take the benefits are no longer legally counted as homeschooled students. Therefore, the apparent decline is most likely related to gradual increases in ESA adoption by homeschool families and not a true decline in homeschool participation. It is important to note that data from unreported states could change overall findings.</p> <p>Finally, while the national estimated rate of homeschool growth is around 2%, these data show a much higher rate of growth. Averaging the pre-pandemic growth from this sample of states from Table 1, I get an average pre-pandemic rate of growth of about 4%. Assuming that homeschool participation would have continued to grow at around 4% a year on average, and discounting the pre-pandemic NHES evidence of stalled and even receding participation from 2012 to 2019 (Hudson et al., [<reflink idref="bib13" id="ref48">13</reflink>];McQuiggan et al., [<reflink idref="bib16" id="ref49">16</reflink>]), and the evidence of declining births and enrollment (Dee, [<reflink idref="bib6" id="ref50">6</reflink>]), I project the most optimistic expected average annual growth over the post-pandemic years in Figure 4. I then plot the actual growth reported in this study.</p> <p>Graph: Figure 4. Projected versus actual homeschool growth.</p> <p>Figure 4 shows 16% growth over four years as the expected growth over that period of time for this sample of states. Next, I plot the actual net growth since the pandemic of 22% during the same years. At the very least, homeschool participation is 6% over where it might have been if we assumed 4% growth per year and no impact from other declining trends.</p> <p>While this analysis presents evidence of the persistence of pandemic homeschool growth there is also evidence of growth when viewed at the state level. Those data illustrate three types of participation patterns.</p> <hd id="AN0181032229-8">Continuous growth</hd> <p>First, three states report continuous growth in the 2023–24 school year, meaning that homeschool numbers increased, before, during, and after the pandemic. In Figure 5, the data from South Dakota (Watson, [<reflink idref="bib30" id="ref51">30</reflink>]) illustrate a clear view of this trend, similar to other states with the same trend including South Carolina and Louisiana. This trend is remarkable in that the pandemic disruption does not appear to have strongly influenced homeschool participation in these states as it did in most others.</p> <p>Graph: Figure 5. Continuous growth trend in South Dakota.</p> <hd id="AN0181032229-9">Rebounding growth</hd> <p>The most common growth trend is that of a post-pandemic regrowth or what I call rebounding' growth, meaning that these states saw large increases in homeschool participation during the pandemic, followed by a post-pandemic decline in that growth. However, in the 2023–24 academic year, homeschool participation suddenly started to increase again. Figure 6 , shows this trend in Colorado (Watson, [<reflink idref="bib30" id="ref52">30</reflink>]). Of the 20 states reporting 2023–24 homeschool participation data at the time of this study, 15 states reported rebounding growth. Further, North Dakota is both a rebounding state and the only non-continuous growth state to report its highest-ever number of homeschoolers in 2023–24.</p> <p>Graph: Figure 6. Rebounding trend in Colorado.</p> <p>This time, increases are not due to the pandemic or associated disruptions to the traditional education system. While the reason for the rebounding growth is unknown, it is worth noting that there was similar growth in homeschooling in 2013, at the end of the recovery from the Great Recession. It is possible that this regrowth signals the end of the pandemic recovery and a reset to a new normal for homeschool participation. More years of data will provide additional evidence.</p> <hd id="AN0181032229-10">Declining participation</hd> <p>The final trend, in Figures 7 and 8, is that of declining growth. Of the 20 states with 2023–24 homeschool participation data, only two show any evidence of declining growth. The first is New Hampshire. However, as discussed earlier, the decline is most likely due to changes in how homeschooled students who use the ESA benefit are counted. This trend correlates with both the progressive uptake of the new ESA, and expected post-pandemic declines. More data are needed to better understand trends in this state.</p> <p>Graph: Figure 7. Declining trend in New Hampshire.</p> <p>Graph: Figure 8. Declining trend in Vermont.</p> <p>The only other state with evidence of a decline in homeschool participation is Vermont. It is worth noting that any decline in this state is small, at 299 students, and about 8.5% over the prior year.</p> <p>For a better understanding of these trends, I plot them on a map of the U.S. in Figure 9. Green states report 2023–24 increases in homeschool participation over the prior year while red states report declines. Yellow states are states where expected data has not yet been reported for 2023–24, while white states do not report annual homeschool participation data.</p> <p>MAP: Figure 9. Map of growth states in 2023–24.</p> <hd id="AN0181032229-11">Blind spots</hd> <p>Finally, I must acknowledge the blind spots in our knowledge and what trends we might observe if the data for missing states were available. Several states like Oklahoma and Texas do not collect data on homeschool participation and therefore do not report annual participation counts. In these states, the reason there is no data is because there is no requirement that parents report homeschool participation. This means that the potential barriers to participation are very low, in which case, it stands to reason that participation in these states is likely to be high. A few other states do collect information on homeschool participation, and may even have strict regulation of the practice, but they do not publicly report those data. New York and California are two examples (Watson, [<reflink idref="bib28" id="ref53">28</reflink>]). In these states, it is likely that homeschool participation is either low or driven underground by the regulatory burden placed on parents. These non-reporting states, then, likely represent both the highs and lows in homeschool participation, depending on context.</p> <hd id="AN0181032229-12">Why</hd> <p>Finally, I turn to the "why" of these findings. I only consider the pervasive and persistent increases, because where there was a decline I assume, as others did during the pandemic, that what goes up must come down. I will also admit that I do not know why there were increases in nearly all states in this sample in 2023–24, but I offer some thoughts.</p> <p>Historically, Van Galen characterized homeschoolers as motivated by academic and moral/religious ideologies (Van Galen, [<reflink idref="bib24" id="ref54">24</reflink>]). Over time, though, ideology has become a backseat driver – still vocal but not in control. Instead, even before the pandemic, safety has risen as the primary concern that parents report as a motivation for homeschooling (Lubienski et al., [<reflink idref="bib15" id="ref55">15</reflink>]). This pragmatic shift is particularly evident in most recent reports about parental motivation (NCES, [<reflink idref="bib17" id="ref56">17</reflink>]) and evidence of the move away from ideological motivation is becoming more apparent (Cheng, [<reflink idref="bib4" id="ref57">4</reflink>]). So, I do not believe ideology drives recent increases, on average.</p> <p>Some propose that the recent increase in homeschooling is due to parents' increased awareness of the supposed failures of the traditional education system during the pandemic. While this may be true of the early pandemic homeschool growth, it seems unlikely that 2023–24 growth, most of which was rebounding, could be attributed to pandemic-related loss of confidence. The new rebounding trend must be due to something else.</p> <p>Something that did change around 2022–23, when parents were making decisions for the coming school year, was the school choice landscape. During and just after the pandemic there was a vast increase in the number of states proposing and passing a variety of school choice programs, some of which provided funding to homeschooled students. Recall the earlier discussion of New Hampshire. While this change could account for some of the growth it is actually more likely to cause a decrease in the number of students counted as homeschooled in many of those states for reasons similar to the context in New Hampshire. Often these homeschooled students are legally no longer counted as such, thus potentially increasing the number of those involved in the practice of homeschooling but decreasing the number legally accounted and reported as homeschooled.</p> <p>While homeschooling has clearly increased in most states since the pandemic, defying predictions and surprising experts, this increase is not unprecedented. Indeed, there was a similar rebounding increase in homeschooling just at the end of the Great Recession in 2012. Therefore, the growth observed in the 2013–14 and 2014–15 academic years could be a result of the recovery from the economic shock of the Great Recession. Refer to Table 1 and Figure 3 for details. Similarly, the rebounding growth observed in homeschool participation in 2023–24 could be a result of the recovery from the economic and social disturbances of the pandemic, indicating a rest to a new normal.</p> <p>Perhaps, the rebounding trend observed in 2023 signals the end of the pandemic and post-pandemic decline in participation, and now homeschooling is once again on the rise.</p> <hd id="AN0181032229-13">Conclusion</hd> <p>Homeschooling grew rapidly during the pandemic disruption to the traditional education system. As presented here, the net growth has decreased since the height of the pandemic but is still above pre-pandemic levels. Further, in the most recent academic year of 2023-24,there is a clear pattern of regrowth which cannot be attributed to the pandemic. If this is a reset to the new normal, then that normal includes the continued growth of homeschool. Remarkably, this growth has occurred alongside declining district enrollment.</p> <p>While the state-level lens is necessary to inform an accurate understanding of American homeschool participation, I would further advocate for an even more detailed analysis. Within states, there is great variation in homeschooling. Arkansas, for example, is a high-homeschool state with about 6% of the state's K-12 population currently homeschooled (Watson, [<reflink idref="bib29" id="ref58">29</reflink>]). However, that average masks high participation in some areas that see as many as 20% homeschooled students. Similarly, North Carolina, with some of the highest homeschool participation (8%) in the country, reports that those concentrations occur in rural areas (Watson, [<reflink idref="bib28" id="ref59">28</reflink>]). More detailed analysis informs a more detailed understanding of homeschooling and policies that best serve the needs of all students, including those homeschooled.</p> <hd id="AN0181032229-14">Future work</hd> <p>Future work should attempt to collect available data from states that collect but do not report homeschool participation. In some cases, this will require going from district to district within a state or even school to school. However, the information on new states would be worth the effort. Analysis should include state and local examinations of available data, some of which include information on student age or grade, gender, and locale.</p> <p>Finally, closely tracking the trends in homeschool participation over the next decade will be important and will also require a nuanced and expanding understanding of who exactly is counted and what form of education they are practicing.</p> <hd id="AN0181032229-15">Disclosure statement</hd> <p>No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).</p> <ref id="AN0181032229-16"> <title> Notes </title> <blist> <bibl id="bib1" idref="ref5" type="bt">1</bibl> <bibtext> In many cases, students in microschools and other homeschool adjacent models are legally counted as homeschooled, depending on the state and many other variables. In this case, "homeschool' counts reported by states may include students homeschool in practice (parent-led instruction at home) as well as those doing something much more similar to traditional schooling. In fact, recent work in this volume indicates that this is much more prevalent than many think (Cheng & Watson, [30]).</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibl id="bib2" idref="ref1" type="bt">2</bibl> <bibtext> The strictest definition of homeschooling is that of a parent-directed education of that family's children in the home. However, there is a spectrum of homeschool participation that includes co-ops, hybrid schools, microschools, and other arrangements that may not fit well into strict definitions of homeschool practice. Further, what legally counts as homeschooling under state or local laws varies widely from state to state (Watson, [28]).</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibl id="bib3" idref="ref2" type="bt">3</bibl> <bibtext> The Washington Post states fell out of the sample in this year.</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibl id="bib4" idref="ref40" type="bt">4</bibl> <bibtext> At the time of writing, 10 states expected to report annual homeschool participation data had not yet reported for the 23–24 school year.</bibtext> </blist> </ref> <ref id="AN0181032229-17"> <title> References </title> <blist> <bibtext> Bartholet, E. (2020). Homeschooling: Parent rights absolutism vs. Child rights to education & protection. Arizona Law Review, 62 (1). https://arizonalawreview.org/pdf/62-1/62arizlrev1.pdf</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Bielick, S. (2008). 1.5 million homeschooled students in the United States in 2007 (NCES 2009-030). https://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2009030</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Bielick, S., Chandler, K., & Broughman, S. (2001). Homeschooling in the United States: 1999 (NCES 2001-033). https://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2001033</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Cheng, A. (2024). The year-by-year primary and secondary education histories of homeschooled individuals and the implications for empirical homeschooling research. Journal of School Choice, 18 (4).</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibl id="bib5" type="bt">5</bibl> <bibtext> Cheng, A., & Watson, A. (2024). How do demographic characteristics of homeschooling households influence the way homeschooling is practiced? Journal of School Choice, 18 (4).</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibl id="bib6" idref="ref27" type="bt">6</bibl> <bibtext> Dee, T. S. (2023). Where the kids went: Nonpublic schooling and demographic change during the Pandemic Exodus from public schools. Teachers College Record, 125 (6), 119 – 129. https://doi.org/10.1177/01614681231190201</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibl id="bib7" idref="ref10" type="bt">7</bibl> <bibtext> Dumas, T., Gates, S., & Schwarzer, D. R. (2010). Evidence for homeschooling: Constitutional analysis in light of social science research. Widener Law Review, 16, 63 – 87.</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibl id="bib8" idref="ref7" type="bt">8</bibl> <bibtext> Eggleston, C., & Fields, J. (2021). Homeschooling on the rise during COVID-19 pandemic. The United States Census Bureau. https://<ulink href="http://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/03/homeschooling-on-the-rise-during-covid-19-pandemic.html">www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/03/homeschooling-on-the-rise-during-covid-19-pandemic.html</ulink></bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibl id="bib9" idref="ref9" type="bt">9</bibl> <bibtext> Gaither, M. (2017). Homeschool: An American history. Palgrave Macmillan.</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Gaither, M. (2018). Religion and homeschooling. In M. D. Waggoner & N. C. Walker (Eds.), The oxford handbook of religion and American education. Oxford Handbooks Online. Oxford Academic. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199386819.013.15</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Henke, R., Kaufman, P., Broughman, S., & Chandler, K. (2000). Issues related to estimating the home schooled population in the United States with national household survey data (NCES 2000- 311). https://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2000311</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Horn, M. (2020). The rapid rise in pandemic pods. Education Next, 21 (1). https://<ulink href="http://www.educationnext.org/rapid-rise-pandemic-pods-will-parent-response-covid-19-lead-to-lasting-changes/">www.educationnext.org/rapid-rise-pandemic-pods-will-parent-response-covid-19-lead-to-lasting-changes/</ulink></bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Hudson, L., Kaats, T., Hall, L., & McNamara, M. (2023). 2019 homeschooling and full-time virtual education rates. Stats in brief. NCES. https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2023/2023101.pdf</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Jamison, P., Meckler, L., Gordy, P., Morse, C., & Alcantara, C. (2023). Home schooling rise from fringe to fastest-growing form of education. Washington post. https://<ulink href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/education/interactive/2023/homeschooling-growth-data-by-district/">www.washingtonpost.com/education/interactive/2023/homeschooling-growth-data-by-district/</ulink></bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Lubienski, C., Puckett, T., & Brewer, T. J. (2013). Does homeschooling "work"? A critique of the empirical claims and agenda of advocacy organizations. Peabody Journal of Education, 88 (3), 378 – 392. https://doi.org/10.1080/0161956X.2013.798516</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> McQuiggan, M., Megra, M., & Grady, S. (2017). Parent and family involvements in education: Results from the national household education surveys program of 2016, First Look, 2017. Retrieved from https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2017/2017102.pdf</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> NCES. (2024). First look: Parent and family involvement in education: 2023. https://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2024113</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> NCES. (n.d.). Education in the time of COVID. Annual reports. https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/annualreports/topical-studies/covid/</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Princiotta, D., & Bielick, S. (2006). Homeschooling in the United States: 2003 (NCES 2006-042). https://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2006042</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Redford, J., Battle, D., & Bielick, S. (2017). Homeschooling in the United States: 2012 (NCES 2016-096.REV). National Center for Education Statistics, Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education.</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Smith, G., & Watson, A. (2024a). Estimating homeschool participation in the U.S. – what we can learn from the household pulse survey. Journal of School Choice, 18 (4). 459 – 475</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Smith, G., & Watson, A. (2024b). Household pulse survey. Johns Hopkins Homeschool Hub. https://education.jhu.edu/edpolicy/policy-research-initiatives/homeschool-hub/household-pulse-survey/</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> US Census Bureau, (2021). New vintage 2021 population estimates available for the nation, states, and Puerto rico. Press release, December 21, https://<ulink href="http://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2021-populationestimates.html">www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2021-populationestimates.html</ulink></bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Van Galen, J. A. (1988). Ideology, curriculum, and pedagogy in home education. Education & Urban Society, 21 (1), 52 – 68. https://doi.org/10.1177/0013124588021001006</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Wang, K., Rathbun, A., & Musu, L. (2019). School choice in the United States: 2019 (NCES 2019-106). https://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2019106</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Watson, A. (2018). Is homeschool cool? Current trends in American homeschooling. Journal of School Choice, 12 (3), 401 – 425. https://doi.org/10.1080/15582159.2018.1490378</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Watson, A. (2020). Parent-created "schools" in the U.S. Journal of School Choice, 14 (4), 595 – 603. https://doi.org/10.1080/15582159.2020.1836801</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Watson, A. (2023a). Homeschool Hub. https://education.jhu.edu/edpolicy/policy-research-initiatives/homeschool-hub/</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Watson, A. (2023b). Arkansas. https://education.jhu.edu/edpolicy/policy-research-initiatives/homeschool-hub/states/arkansas/</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Watson, A. (2024). Homeschool growth 2023–24. Johns Hopkins Homeschool Hub. https://education.jhu.edu/edpolicy/policy-research-initiatives/homeschool-hub/homeschool-growth-2023-2024/</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Watson, A., Maranto, R., & Bell, D. (2018). The fall and rise of home education. Homeschooling in the 21st Century. Routledge.</bibtext> </blist> <blist> <bibtext> Wolf, P., Lee, M., & Watson, A. (2020). Harvard law professor's attack on homeschooling is a flawed failure. And terribly timed, too. Education Next Retrieved October, 9.</bibtext> </blist> </ref> <aug> <p>By Angela R. 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  Data: United States homeschooling participation increased dramatically during the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic. Education scholars theorized that homeschool participation would recede along with pandemic disruptions. This study examines whether that theory proved true. I use longitudinal annual state-reported homeschool participation counts supplemented with other data in states and years where state data is not publicly available. I find a small and brief decline in homeschool participation one- and two-years post-pandemic. However, the majority of states for which data are available report increased homeschool participation three years after the pandemic height. Within this growth, I will discuss three interesting trends.
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