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Profiling Vulnerability in Youth and Predicting Educational Attainment in Young Adulthood

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Title: Profiling Vulnerability in Youth and Predicting Educational Attainment in Young Adulthood
Language: English
Authors: Heidi M. Renner (ORCID 0000-0002-3359-4082), Bosco Rowland (ORCID 0000-0003-0192-809X), Delyse Hutchinson (ORCID 0000-0003-3221-7143), John W. Toumbourou (ORCID 0000-0002-8431-3762)
Source: Journal of Adolescence. 2026 98(1):82-94.
Availability: Wiley. Available from: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030. Tel: 800-835-6770; e-mail: cs-journals@wiley.com; Web site: https://www.wiley.com/en-us
Peer Reviewed: Y
Page Count: 13
Publication Date: 2026
Sponsoring Agency: National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) (DHHS/PHS)
Contract Number: R01DA01214005
Document Type: Journal Articles
Reports - Research
Descriptors: Young Adults, Educational Attainment, Predictor Variables, Foreign Countries, Potential Dropouts, Prevention, Intervention, At Risk Persons
Geographic Terms: Australia
DOI: 10.1002/jad.70042
ISSN: 0140-1971
1095-9254
Abstract: Introduction: Educational attainment is associated with higher rates of employment, income, and standard of living; yet leaving secondary school before completion of the final year remains common, particularly for youth experiencing disadvantage. This study aimed to identify key indicators of vulnerability, derived from a proposed framework of child disadvantage, that predicted early school leaving in a state-representative sample of Australian youth. Methods: Data comprised 2884 participants (51.7% female; 48.3% male) across three age cohorts from the Australian arm of the longitudinal cohort study, the International Youth Development Study (IYDS). The relationship between level of vulnerability in adolescence (11-15 years old in Wave 1; 2002) and subsequent early school leaving (19-23 years old in Wave 7; 2010) was examined, controlling for individual, family, school, and community covariates. Results: Latent class analyses identified four vulnerability groups ('low,' 'normative,' 'welfare,' and 'high'), differentiated by sociodemographic factors (low), receipt of welfare support (welfare), and family and community risk factors (high). Multivariate regression analyses indicated greater vulnerability in adolescence (11-15 years old) predicted an increased odds of subsequent early school leaving, with the highest vulnerability group 40% more likely to leave school before completing Year 12, relative to the lowest vulnerability group (OR = 1.40; 95% CI [1.27, 1.53], p < 0.001). Conclusions: Sociodemographic, geographical, and risk indicators, selected using a multidimensional framework of child disadvantage, predicted increased vulnerability for early school leaving. Prevention and intervention initiatives should select comprehensive multidimensional indicators to prioritise vulnerable youth with the aim of improving educational equity.
Abstractor: As Provided
Entry Date: 2026
Accession Number: EJ1493608
Database: ERIC
FullText Text:
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  Data: Profiling Vulnerability in Youth and Predicting Educational Attainment in Young Adulthood
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  Data: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Heidi+M%2E+Renner%22&quot;&gt;Heidi M. Renner&lt;/searchLink&gt; (ORCID &lt;externalLink term=&quot;https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3359-4082&quot;&gt;0000-0002-3359-4082&lt;/externalLink&gt;)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Bosco+Rowland%22&quot;&gt;Bosco Rowland&lt;/searchLink&gt; (ORCID &lt;externalLink term=&quot;https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0192-809X&quot;&gt;0000-0003-0192-809X&lt;/externalLink&gt;)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22Delyse+Hutchinson%22&quot;&gt;Delyse Hutchinson&lt;/searchLink&gt; (ORCID &lt;externalLink term=&quot;https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3221-7143&quot;&gt;0000-0003-3221-7143&lt;/externalLink&gt;)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;AR&quot; term=&quot;%22John+W%2E+Toumbourou%22&quot;&gt;John W. Toumbourou&lt;/searchLink&gt; (ORCID &lt;externalLink term=&quot;https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8431-3762&quot;&gt;0000-0002-8431-3762&lt;/externalLink&gt;)
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  Data: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;SO&quot; term=&quot;%22Journal+of+Adolescence%22&quot;&gt;&lt;i&gt;Journal of Adolescence&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/searchLink&gt;. 2026 98(1):82-94.
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  Data: Wiley. Available from: John Wiley &amp; Sons, Inc. 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030. Tel: 800-835-6770; e-mail: cs-journals@wiley.com; Web site: https://www.wiley.com/en-us
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  Data: 13
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  Data: 2026
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  Data: National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) (DHHS/PHS)
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  Data: R01DA01214005
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  Data: &lt;searchLink fieldCode=&quot;DE&quot; term=&quot;%22Australia%22&quot;&gt;Australia&lt;/searchLink&gt;
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  Data: 10.1002/jad.70042
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  Data: 0140-1971&lt;br /&gt;1095-9254
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  Data: Introduction: Educational attainment is associated with higher rates of employment, income, and standard of living; yet leaving secondary school before completion of the final year remains common, particularly for youth experiencing disadvantage. This study aimed to identify key indicators of vulnerability, derived from a proposed framework of child disadvantage, that predicted early school leaving in a state-representative sample of Australian youth. Methods: Data comprised 2884 participants (51.7% female; 48.3% male) across three age cohorts from the Australian arm of the longitudinal cohort study, the International Youth Development Study (IYDS). The relationship between level of vulnerability in adolescence (11-15 years old in Wave 1; 2002) and subsequent early school leaving (19-23 years old in Wave 7; 2010) was examined, controlling for individual, family, school, and community covariates. Results: Latent class analyses identified four vulnerability groups (&#39;low,&#39; &#39;normative,&#39; &#39;welfare,&#39; and &#39;high&#39;), differentiated by sociodemographic factors (low), receipt of welfare support (welfare), and family and community risk factors (high). Multivariate regression analyses indicated greater vulnerability in adolescence (11-15 years old) predicted an increased odds of subsequent early school leaving, with the highest vulnerability group 40% more likely to leave school before completing Year 12, relative to the lowest vulnerability group (OR = 1.40; 95% CI [1.27, 1.53], p &lt; 0.001). Conclusions: Sociodemographic, geographical, and risk indicators, selected using a multidimensional framework of child disadvantage, predicted increased vulnerability for early school leaving. Prevention and intervention initiatives should select comprehensive multidimensional indicators to prioritise vulnerable youth with the aim of improving educational equity.
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        Value: 10.1002/jad.70042
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      – Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 13
        StartPage: 82
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Young Adults
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Educational Attainment
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      – SubjectFull: Predictor Variables
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      – SubjectFull: Potential Dropouts
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      – SubjectFull: Australia
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      – TitleFull: Profiling Vulnerability in Youth and Predicting Educational Attainment in Young Adulthood
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