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The Predictive Utility of Past Success: Skill and Chance in Children's Theory of Performance

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Title: The Predictive Utility of Past Success: Skill and Chance in Children's Theory of Performance
Language: English
Authors: Hailey Pawsey, Jordan Bauman (ORCID 0009-0002-1318-9589), Ayshe Ozlu (ORCID 0009-0006-3894-2943), Stephanie Denison (ORCID 0000-0002-6658-4139), Ori Friedman (ORCID 0000-0003-2346-9787)
Source: Developmental Science. 2026 29(2).
Availability: Wiley. Available from: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030. Tel: 800-835-6770; e-mail: cs-journals@wiley.com; Web site: https://www.wiley.com/en-us
Peer Reviewed: Y
Page Count: 10
Publication Date: 2026
Document Type: Journal Articles
Reports - Research
Descriptors: Success, Competence, Skills, Young Children, Prediction, Age Differences, Adults, Performance Factors, Failure, Cognitive Development, Thinking Skills
DOI: 10.1111/desc.70123
ISSN: 1363-755X
1467-7687
Abstract: Success at a skill-based activity shows that a person is competent and likely to succeed again in the future. Success at a pure-chance activity, by contrast, does not imply competence or future success. In two experiments, we investigated children's developing understanding of how skill- and chance-based activities differ in relation to competence. In both experiments, children aged 4-7 (total N = 279) saw skill- and chance-based activities and judged whether a person who had previously succeeded with each activity would succeed when next attempting it. From Age 5, children were more likely to see past success as predictive of future success for skill- than chance-based activities. The second experiment also looked at judgments about agents who had previously failed and found that children at all ages predicted future success similarly regardless of whether activities involved skill or chance alone. This experiment also included a sample of adults (N = 202), and found their responses were overall comparable to those of 7-year-olds. Together, these finding are informative about development in children's reasoning about the predictive utility of past success, and potentially about their "theory of performance"--their understanding of factors that determine whether agents are likely to succeed. The findings provide preliminary evidence for development in this theory at Age 5 while also showing that its development is protracted.
Abstractor: As Provided
Entry Date: 2026
Accession Number: EJ1498358
Database: ERIC
FullText Text:
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  Data: The Predictive Utility of Past Success: Skill and Chance in Children's Theory of Performance
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  Data: English
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hailey+Pawsey%22">Hailey Pawsey</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jordan+Bauman%22">Jordan Bauman</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0009-0002-1318-9589">0009-0002-1318-9589</externalLink>)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ayshe+Ozlu%22">Ayshe Ozlu</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0009-0006-3894-2943">0009-0006-3894-2943</externalLink>)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Stephanie+Denison%22">Stephanie Denison</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6658-4139">0000-0002-6658-4139</externalLink>)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ori+Friedman%22">Ori Friedman</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2346-9787">0000-0003-2346-9787</externalLink>)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="SO" term="%22Developmental+Science%22"><i>Developmental Science</i></searchLink>. 2026 29(2).
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  Data: Wiley. Available from: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030. Tel: 800-835-6770; e-mail: cs-journals@wiley.com; Web site: https://www.wiley.com/en-us
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  Data: Y
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  Data: 10
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  Data: 2026
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  Data: Journal Articles<br />Reports - Research
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Success%22">Success</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Competence%22">Competence</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Skills%22">Skills</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Young+Children%22">Young Children</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Prediction%22">Prediction</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Age+Differences%22">Age Differences</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Adults%22">Adults</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Performance+Factors%22">Performance Factors</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Failure%22">Failure</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Cognitive+Development%22">Cognitive Development</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Thinking+Skills%22">Thinking Skills</searchLink>
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  Data: 10.1111/desc.70123
– Name: ISSN
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  Data: 1363-755X<br />1467-7687
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Success at a skill-based activity shows that a person is competent and likely to succeed again in the future. Success at a pure-chance activity, by contrast, does not imply competence or future success. In two experiments, we investigated children's developing understanding of how skill- and chance-based activities differ in relation to competence. In both experiments, children aged 4-7 (total N = 279) saw skill- and chance-based activities and judged whether a person who had previously succeeded with each activity would succeed when next attempting it. From Age 5, children were more likely to see past success as predictive of future success for skill- than chance-based activities. The second experiment also looked at judgments about agents who had previously failed and found that children at all ages predicted future success similarly regardless of whether activities involved skill or chance alone. This experiment also included a sample of adults (N = 202), and found their responses were overall comparable to those of 7-year-olds. Together, these finding are informative about development in children's reasoning about the predictive utility of past success, and potentially about their "theory of performance"--their understanding of factors that determine whether agents are likely to succeed. The findings provide preliminary evidence for development in this theory at Age 5 while also showing that its development is protracted.
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  Data: 2026
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  Data: EJ1498358
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=eric&AN=EJ1498358
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        Value: 10.1111/desc.70123
    Languages:
      – Text: English
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        PageCount: 10
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      – SubjectFull: Success
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Competence
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Skills
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      – SubjectFull: Young Children
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      – SubjectFull: Prediction
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      – SubjectFull: Adults
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      – SubjectFull: Performance Factors
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      – SubjectFull: Failure
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      – SubjectFull: Cognitive Development
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      – SubjectFull: Thinking Skills
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      – TitleFull: The Predictive Utility of Past Success: Skill and Chance in Children's Theory of Performance
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