Construction of risk factors and prediction model for arteriovenous graft thrombosis.
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| Title: | Construction of risk factors and prediction model for arteriovenous graft thrombosis. |
|---|---|
| Alternate Title: | Construcción de un modelo de predicción y factores de riesgo para la trombosis en injertos arteriovenosos en pacientes con hemodiálisis de mantenimiento. |
| Authors: | Fang, Yumei1 yummyla@163.com, Cao, Xia1 |
| Source: | Nefrologia. Dec2025, Vol. 45 Issue 10, p1-6. 6p. |
| Subjects: | THROMBOSIS, PREDICTION models, ARTERIOVENOUS fistula, LOGISTIC regression analysis, RISK assessment, DISEASE risk factors, NOMOGRAPHY (Mathematics), HEMODIALYSIS |
| Abstract (English): | Objective: This study aims to identify risk factors for thrombosis in arteriovenous grafts and construct a predictive model to assess thrombosis risk in patients undergoing maintenance hemodialysis (MHD). Methods: A total of 160 MHD patients with arteriovenous graft were included and divided into a thrombosis group (n = 39) and a control group (n = 121). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors. A nomogram prediction model was developed using R software, and its predictive performance was evaluated through calibration curves and C-index validation. Results: Multivariate analysis identified diabetes, hypotension during dialysis, arteriovenous graft stenosis, compression hemostasis > 30 min, and calcium-phosphorus product > 55 mg2 /dL2 as independent risk factors for arteriovenous graft thrombosis. The nomogram model demonstrated good predictive accuracy, with an initial C-index of 0.753 and a validated C-index of 0.735. Conclusion: The established nomogram effectively predicts arteriovenous graft thrombosis risk, aiding early identification and targeted intervention for high-risk patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Abstract (Spanish): | Objetivo Este estudio tiene como objetivo identificar los factores de riesgo de trombosis en injertos arteriovenosos y construir un modelo predictivo para evaluar el riesgo de trombosis en pacientes en hemodiálisis de mantenimiento (MHD). Métodos Se incluyeron un total de 450 pacientes con MHD y AVG, divididos en grupo trombótico (n = 79) y grupo control (n = 371). Se realizó un análisis de regresión logística univariable y multivariable para determinar los factores de riesgo independientes. Se desarrolló un modelo de predicción utilizando un nomograma con el software R y se evaluó su rendimiento predictivo a través de la curva de calibración y la validación del índice C. Resultados El análisis multivariable determinó que la diabetes, la hipotensión durante la diálisis, la estenosis de AVG, la hemostasia por compresión durante más de 30 minutos y el producto de calcio y fósforo > 55 mg2/dL2 fueron factores de riesgo independientes para la trombosis de AVG. El modelo de nomograma mostró una buena precisión de predicción, con un índice C inicial de 0.753 y un índice C verificado de 0.735. Conclusión El nomograma establecido puede predecir eficazmente el riesgo de trombosis de AVG y ayudar a la identificación temprana y la intervención específica en pacientes de alto riesgo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: | MedicLatina |
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