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Forecasting, warning, and detection of malaria epidemics: a case study.

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Title: Forecasting, warning, and detection of malaria epidemics: a case study.
Authors: Hay SI (AUTHOR), Were EC (AUTHOR), Renshaw M (AUTHOR), Noor AM (AUTHOR), Ochola SA (AUTHOR), Olusanmi I (AUTHOR), Alipui N (AUTHOR), Snow RW (AUTHOR), Hay, Simon I (AUTHOR), Were, Eric C (AUTHOR), Renshaw, Melanie (AUTHOR), Noor, Abdisalan M (AUTHOR), Ochola, Sam A (AUTHOR), Olusanmi, Iyabode (AUTHOR), Alipui, Nicholas (AUTHOR), Snow, Robert W (AUTHOR)
Source: Lancet. 5/17/2003, Vol. 361 Issue 9370, p1705-1706. 2p.
Abstract: Our aim was to assess whether a combination of seasonal climate forecasts, monitoring of meteorological conditions, and early detection of cases could have helped to prevent the 2002 malaria emergency in the highlands of western Kenya. Seasonal climate forecasts did not anticipate the heavy rainfall. Rainfall data gave timely and reliable early warnings; but monthly surveillance of malaria out-patients gave no effective alarm, though it did help to confirm that normal rainfall conditions in Kisii Central and Gucha led to typical resurgent outbreaks whereas exceptional rainfall in Nandi and Kericho led to true malaria epidemics. Management of malaria in the highlands, including improved planning for the annual resurgent outbreak, augmented by simple central nationwide early warning, represents a feasible strategy for increasing epidemic preparedness in Kenya. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Lancet is the property of Lancet and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection
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  Data: Forecasting, warning, and detection of malaria epidemics: a case study.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hay+SI%22">Hay SI</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Were+EC%22">Were EC</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Renshaw+M%22">Renshaw M</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Noor+AM%22">Noor AM</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ochola+SA%22">Ochola SA</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Olusanmi+I%22">Olusanmi I</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Alipui+N%22">Alipui N</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Snow+RW%22">Snow RW</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hay%2C+Simon+I%22">Hay, Simon I</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Were%2C+Eric+C%22">Were, Eric C</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Renshaw%2C+Melanie%22">Renshaw, Melanie</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Noor%2C+Abdisalan+M%22">Noor, Abdisalan M</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ochola%2C+Sam+A%22">Ochola, Sam A</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Olusanmi%2C+Iyabode%22">Olusanmi, Iyabode</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Alipui%2C+Nicholas%22">Alipui, Nicholas</searchLink> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Snow%2C+Robert+W%22">Snow, Robert W</searchLink> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Lancet%22">Lancet</searchLink>. 5/17/2003, Vol. 361 Issue 9370, p1705-1706. 2p.
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  Data: Our aim was to assess whether a combination of seasonal climate forecasts, monitoring of meteorological conditions, and early detection of cases could have helped to prevent the 2002 malaria emergency in the highlands of western Kenya. Seasonal climate forecasts did not anticipate the heavy rainfall. Rainfall data gave timely and reliable early warnings; but monthly surveillance of malaria out-patients gave no effective alarm, though it did help to confirm that normal rainfall conditions in Kisii Central and Gucha led to typical resurgent outbreaks whereas exceptional rainfall in Nandi and Kericho led to true malaria epidemics. Management of malaria in the highlands, including improved planning for the annual resurgent outbreak, augmented by simple central nationwide early warning, represents a feasible strategy for increasing epidemic preparedness in Kenya. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Lancet is the property of Lancet and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=pbh&AN=106875223
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