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Between a rock and a hard place of geopolitically sensitive threats - critical incidents and decision inertia.

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Title: Between a rock and a hard place of geopolitically sensitive threats - critical incidents and decision inertia.
Authors: Alison, Laurence, Palasinski, Marek, Waring, Sara, Humphrey, Anne, Humann, Michael, Shortland, Neil, Bowman Grieve, Lorraine
Source: Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism & Political Aggression. Sep2018, Vol. 10 Issue 3, p207-224. 18p. 3 Charts.
Subjects: Decision making, Terrorists, Hostage taking, Subversive activities, Political violence
Abstract: While the SAFE-T model of decision making emphasizes naturalistic decision making, its potential for cross-comparative analysis of incidents with global implications remains underutilized, which the current paper aims to address. To this end, it draws upon open-source reports from unclassified American, British and Russian intelligence reports to explore the management of three types of 10 high-profile geopolitically sensitive threats from across the globe (verifying potential terrorist identity, hostage rescue and national/international security). Defining features of such incidents include decision makers’ ability to prospectively model competing scenarios in which they must select between options and where every outcome looks aversive and high risk (‘damned if you do or damned if you don’t decisions’). A frequent consequence of such calculations is ‘decision inertia’ (a failure to execute an important, irrevocable decision resulting in non-optimal consequences), or ‘implementation failure’ (a failure to make a choice). Combining the benefit of the theoretical framework and hindsight knowledge of the analyzed incidents, the paper facilitates theoretical understanding of decision inertia and failures to act. Encouraging the consideration of multiple scenario endings contingent on a wide spectrum of factors and unique cultural-historical context, it also helps identify past decision errors in order to inform assessment and management of similar geopolitical threats in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism & Political Aggression is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
Database: Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection
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  Data: Between a rock and a hard place of geopolitically sensitive threats - critical incidents and decision inertia.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Alison%2C+Laurence%22">Alison, Laurence</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Palasinski%2C+Marek%22">Palasinski, Marek</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Waring%2C+Sara%22">Waring, Sara</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Humphrey%2C+Anne%22">Humphrey, Anne</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Humann%2C+Michael%22">Humann, Michael</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Shortland%2C+Neil%22">Shortland, Neil</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bowman+Grieve%2C+Lorraine%22">Bowman Grieve, Lorraine</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Behavioral+Sciences+of+Terrorism+%26+Political+Aggression%22">Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism & Political Aggression</searchLink>. Sep2018, Vol. 10 Issue 3, p207-224. 18p. 3 Charts.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Decision+making%22">Decision making</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Terrorists%22">Terrorists</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Hostage+taking%22">Hostage taking</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Subversive+activities%22">Subversive activities</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Political+violence%22">Political violence</searchLink>
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  Label: Abstract
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  Data: While the SAFE-T model of decision making emphasizes naturalistic decision making, its potential for cross-comparative analysis of incidents with global implications remains underutilized, which the current paper aims to address. To this end, it draws upon open-source reports from unclassified American, British and Russian intelligence reports to explore the management of three types of 10 high-profile geopolitically sensitive threats from across the globe (verifying potential terrorist identity, hostage rescue and national/international security). Defining features of such incidents include decision makers’ ability to prospectively model competing scenarios in which they must select between options and where every outcome looks aversive and high risk (‘damned if you do or damned if you don’t decisions’). A frequent consequence of such calculations is ‘decision inertia’ (a failure to execute an important, irrevocable decision resulting in non-optimal consequences), or ‘implementation failure’ (a failure to make a choice). Combining the benefit of the theoretical framework and hindsight knowledge of the analyzed incidents, the paper facilitates theoretical understanding of decision inertia and failures to act. Encouraging the consideration of multiple scenario endings contingent on a wide spectrum of factors and unique cultural-historical context, it also helps identify past decision errors in order to inform assessment and management of similar geopolitical threats in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism & Political Aggression is the property of Taylor & Francis Ltd and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=pbh&AN=130398761
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        Value: 10.1080/19434472.2017.1373690
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        Text: English
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        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Terrorists
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Hostage taking
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      – SubjectFull: Subversive activities
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      – SubjectFull: Political violence
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              Text: Sep2018
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