An account of subjective probability judgment for joint events: Conjunctive and disjunctive.
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| Title: | An account of subjective probability judgment for joint events: Conjunctive and disjunctive. |
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| Authors: | Fisk, John E., Marshall, Dean A., Rogers, Paul, Stock, Rosemary |
| Source: | Scandinavian Journal of Psychology. Oct2019, Vol. 60 Issue 5, p405-420. 16p. 6 Charts. |
| Subjects: | Decision making, Judgment (Psychology), Mathematical models, Research methodology, Probability theory, Psychology, Statistical sampling, Descriptive statistics |
| Abstract: | Probability judgment is a vital part of many aspects of everyday life. In the present paper, we present a new theory of the way in which individuals produce probability estimates for joint events: conjunctive and disjunctive. We propose that a majority of individuals produce conjunctive (disjunctive) estimates by making a quasi‐random adjustment, positive or negative, from the less (more) likely component probability with the other component playing no obvious role. In two studies, we produce evidence supporting propositions that follow from our theory. First, the component probabilities do appear to play the distinct roles we propose in determining the joint event probabilities. Second, contrary to probability theory and other accounts of probability judgment, we show that the conjunctive‐less likely probability difference is unrelated to the more likely disjunctive probability difference (in normative theory these quantities are identical). In conclusion, while violating the norms of probability judgment, we argue that estimates produced in the manner we propose will be close enough to the normative values especially given the changing nature of the external environment and the incomplete nature of available information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Scandinavian Journal of Psychology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection |
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