Information and Perceptions of Electability in Primary Elections.
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| Title: | Information and Perceptions of Electability in Primary Elections. |
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| Authors: | Anderson, Sarah E. (AUTHOR), Burden, Barry C. (AUTHOR), Butler, Daniel M. (AUTHOR), Harbridge-Yong, Laurel (AUTHOR), Ryan, Timothy J. (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Political Behavior. Jun2026, Vol. 48 Issue 2, p895-922. 28p. |
| Subjects: | Campaign funds, Moderates (Political science), Partisanship, Primaries, Citizen attitudes |
| Abstract: | When citizens vote in primary elections, they have good reason to consider each candidate's electability—the chances of winning the general election if they become their party's nominee. Although electability perceptions are potentially a critical determinant of who wins, little is known about how voters form such perceptions. Using a pre-registered survey experiment conducted on voters in advance of several real competitive senatorial and gubernatorial primary elections in 2022, we examine three candidate attributes that plausibly shape and are correlated with voters' perceptions of electability: ideological moderation, experience in elected office, and campaign fundraising success. We find evidence that providing new information about candidate attributes affects perceptions of electability, with fundraising being most important. Subsequent analysis shows that this effect is largely driven by Republican voters. Our results highlight the need to better understand differences across the parties in perceptions of electability and how voters learn about campaign finance information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Copyright of Political Behavior is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.) | |
| Database: | Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection |
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| Abstract: | When citizens vote in primary elections, they have good reason to consider each candidate's electability—the chances of winning the general election if they become their party's nominee. Although electability perceptions are potentially a critical determinant of who wins, little is known about how voters form such perceptions. Using a pre-registered survey experiment conducted on voters in advance of several real competitive senatorial and gubernatorial primary elections in 2022, we examine three candidate attributes that plausibly shape and are correlated with voters' perceptions of electability: ideological moderation, experience in elected office, and campaign fundraising success. We find evidence that providing new information about candidate attributes affects perceptions of electability, with fundraising being most important. Subsequent analysis shows that this effect is largely driven by Republican voters. Our results highlight the need to better understand differences across the parties in perceptions of electability and how voters learn about campaign finance information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 01909320 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s11109-025-10054-2 |
