Expectativa de probabilidad teórica y de frecuencia empírica en juegos de azar
Three subjects, between 8 and 11 years old, have been studied focusing on their capacity of assessing the statistical probability in random events and in their behaviour of predicting the real outcomes in these events, along a sequence of 21 experiences, repeated 3 times. The subjective statistical...
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| Published: |
1987
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| Online Access: |
http://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/oaiart?codigo=65966 |
| Summary: | Three subjects, between 8 and 11 years old, have been studied focusing on their capacity of
assessing the statistical probability in random events and in their behaviour of predicting the real
outcomes in these events, along a sequence of 21 experiences, repeated 3 times. The subjective
statistical estimates the objective statistical probability, the empirical prediction of subjects and the
real outcome of random events in preceding occasions are systematically compared. The results show
that the youngest subject made his predictions on the basis of preceding outcomes more than on the
basis of his estimates of probabilities, while the other older subjects made them equally on either
basis. The authors also suggest the presence of individual parameters of decision under risk. |
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