Demand for Brazilian beef has been growing positively over the years, marked by rising exports, mainly from Asian countries. Given that different links in the chain impact the price, verifying how the price of corn, live cattle and the exchange rate may be related to the attractiveness of acquiring...
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https://revistas.sena.edu.co/index.php/recia/article/view/4378 |
| Summary: | Demand for Brazilian beef has been growing positively over the years, marked by rising exports, mainly from Asian countries. Given that different links in the chain impact the price, verifying how the price of corn, live cattle and the exchange rate may be related to the attractiveness of acquiring slaughterhouse shares, impacting prices. The increase in demand for beef, also as a result of covid-19, may be raising market values of Brazilian beef slaughterhouses. Given the interest in verifying these influences and predicting the behavior and volatility of prices quoted in shares, the present study aims to analyze the behavior and prices of shares of publicly traded meatpacking companies operating in Brazil, JBS (JBSS3), Marfrig (MFRG3) and Minerva (BEEF3) in relation to the dollar-real exchange rate (USD-BRL) and commodity prices: corn (CCMM3) and live cattle (BGIF3). The historical series analyzed from January 2015 to September 2021 were obtained from Brasil Bolsa Balcão, totaling 9,768 observations. Econometric tests and correlation analysis were used to verify behaviors. The results of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test were higher than the critical values, indicating that the series are non-stationary due to the existing trend. Correlations with BGIF3, CCMM3 and USD-BRL were strong positive for MFRG3 and JBSS3. For BEEF3 there was no correlation. It is concluded that the trend is towards a rise in the prices of stock assets with a significant increase observed in 2019, remaining in 2020 and 2021 in relation to 2015, denoting the high sensitivity to market effects. |
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