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Differential vulnerability of key threatened mammals to climate and land cover changes in the Central Himalayas.

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Title: Differential vulnerability of key threatened mammals to climate and land cover changes in the Central Himalayas.
Authors: Thapa, Arjun1,2 (AUTHOR), Baral, Suraj3,4 (AUTHOR), K. C., Rabin Bahadur5,6 (AUTHOR), Paudel, Rajan Prasad6 (AUTHOR), Thapa, Gokarn Jung7 (AUTHOR), Basnet, Hari3 (AUTHOR), G. C., Rima5 (AUTHOR), Khanal, Kapil7,8 (AUTHOR), Dhakal, Maheshwar9 (AUTHOR), Jnawali, Shanta Raj7 (AUTHOR), Thapa, Kanchan7 (AUTHOR), Khanal, Laxman10 (AUTHOR) laxman.khanal@cdz.tu.edu.np
Source: Ecosphere. Apr2025, Vol. 16 Issue 4, p1-18. 18p.
Subject Terms: *Climate change, *Rare mammals, *Effect of human beings on climate change, Red panda, Snow leopard
Abstract: Anthropogenic climate change affects biological diversity by altering their suitable habitat ranges. The Himalayan region is one of the world's most sensitive biodiversity hotspots to global climate change. The Chitwan Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) in the central Himalayas serves as a vital north–south linkage among the protected areas in central Nepal and provides suitable habitats for threatened mammals in different ecological zones, such as snow leopards (in the alpine zone), Himalayan red panda (in the temperate zone), and one‐horned rhinoceros (in the lowland tropical zone). The biodiversity of CHAL is threatened by climate change and land use alterations. This study assessed the potential impacts of climate and land cover changes on the above three key threatened mammals in CHAL by employing maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to predict the current potential habitat and project it for future climate change scenarios under different greenhouse gas concentrations. Further, we used the cellular automata and Markov Chain models to simulate and predict the temporal and spatial changes in land cover of CHAL. Our results indicate that the snow leopard and Himalayan red panda will experience more significant vulnerability than the one‐horned rhinoceros in all future climate scenarios. Approximately 36.3% and 41.8% of the suitable habitat of the snow leopard and 32.5% and 56% of the Himalayan red panda in CHAL are projected to be lost in 2050 and 2070, respectively, under representative concentration pathway (RCP6.0). Climate refugia, representing areas of suitable habitat for 2070 (under the RCP6.0) in CHAL, are projected to cover 958 km2 (80.37% of the current range), 1052 km2 (43.73% of the current range), and 2375 km2 (58.21% of the current range) for one‐horned rhinoceros, Himalayan red panda, and snow leopard, respectively. Among the land cover attributes in CHAL, snow cover is predicted to decrease by 24% in 2070. Our findings indicate that species inhabiting alpine and temperate environments are more susceptible to human‐induced climate change than those inhabiting lowland tropical areas. These findings will help to implement the adaptation actions that are crucial to addressing future conservation challenges arising from climate and land cover change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Ecosphere is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Differential vulnerability of key threatened mammals to climate and land cover changes in the Central Himalayas.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Thapa%2C+Arjun%22">Thapa, Arjun</searchLink><relatesTo>1,2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Baral%2C+Suraj%22">Baral, Suraj</searchLink><relatesTo>3,4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22K%2E+C%2E%2C+Rabin+Bahadur%22">K. C., Rabin Bahadur</searchLink><relatesTo>5,6</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Paudel%2C+Rajan+Prasad%22">Paudel, Rajan Prasad</searchLink><relatesTo>6</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Thapa%2C+Gokarn+Jung%22">Thapa, Gokarn Jung</searchLink><relatesTo>7</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Basnet%2C+Hari%22">Basnet, Hari</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22G%2E+C%2E%2C+Rima%22">G. C., Rima</searchLink><relatesTo>5</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Khanal%2C+Kapil%22">Khanal, Kapil</searchLink><relatesTo>7,8</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dhakal%2C+Maheshwar%22">Dhakal, Maheshwar</searchLink><relatesTo>9</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jnawali%2C+Shanta+Raj%22">Jnawali, Shanta Raj</searchLink><relatesTo>7</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Thapa%2C+Kanchan%22">Thapa, Kanchan</searchLink><relatesTo>7</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Khanal%2C+Laxman%22">Khanal, Laxman</searchLink><relatesTo>10</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> laxman.khanal@cdz.tu.edu.np</i>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Ecosphere%22">Ecosphere</searchLink>. Apr2025, Vol. 16 Issue 4, p1-18. 18p.
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  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Climate+change%22">Climate change</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Rare+mammals%22">Rare mammals</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Effect+of+human+beings+on+climate+change%22">Effect of human beings on climate change</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Red+panda%22">Red panda</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Snow+leopard%22">Snow leopard</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
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  Data: Anthropogenic climate change affects biological diversity by altering their suitable habitat ranges. The Himalayan region is one of the world's most sensitive biodiversity hotspots to global climate change. The Chitwan Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) in the central Himalayas serves as a vital north–south linkage among the protected areas in central Nepal and provides suitable habitats for threatened mammals in different ecological zones, such as snow leopards (in the alpine zone), Himalayan red panda (in the temperate zone), and one‐horned rhinoceros (in the lowland tropical zone). The biodiversity of CHAL is threatened by climate change and land use alterations. This study assessed the potential impacts of climate and land cover changes on the above three key threatened mammals in CHAL by employing maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to predict the current potential habitat and project it for future climate change scenarios under different greenhouse gas concentrations. Further, we used the cellular automata and Markov Chain models to simulate and predict the temporal and spatial changes in land cover of CHAL. Our results indicate that the snow leopard and Himalayan red panda will experience more significant vulnerability than the one‐horned rhinoceros in all future climate scenarios. Approximately 36.3% and 41.8% of the suitable habitat of the snow leopard and 32.5% and 56% of the Himalayan red panda in CHAL are projected to be lost in 2050 and 2070, respectively, under representative concentration pathway (RCP6.0). Climate refugia, representing areas of suitable habitat for 2070 (under the RCP6.0) in CHAL, are projected to cover 958 km2 (80.37% of the current range), 1052 km2 (43.73% of the current range), and 2375 km2 (58.21% of the current range) for one‐horned rhinoceros, Himalayan red panda, and snow leopard, respectively. Among the land cover attributes in CHAL, snow cover is predicted to decrease by 24% in 2070. Our findings indicate that species inhabiting alpine and temperate environments are more susceptible to human‐induced climate change than those inhabiting lowland tropical areas. These findings will help to implement the adaptation actions that are crucial to addressing future conservation challenges arising from climate and land cover change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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  Data: <i>Copyright of Ecosphere is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.1002/ecs2.70242
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        Text: English
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      – SubjectFull: Climate change
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      – SubjectFull: Rare mammals
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      – SubjectFull: Effect of human beings on climate change
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