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Future Change in the Moist Wave Activity and Its Potential Impact on Local Extreme Precipitation Under a Warming Climate.

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Title: Future Change in the Moist Wave Activity and Its Potential Impact on Local Extreme Precipitation Under a Warming Climate.
Authors: Xue, Daokai1 (AUTHOR) dkxue@nju.edu.cn, Lu, Jian2 (AUTHOR), Xue, Xingping3 (AUTHOR), Yin, Jingnan4 (AUTHOR), Zhang, Yaocun1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres. May2026, Vol. 131 Issue 10, p1-22. 22p.
Subject Terms: *Extreme weather, *Circulation models, *Seasonal temperature variations, *Temperature effect, *Climate change, Atmospheric waves, Atmospheric models
Geographic Terms: Northern Hemisphere
Abstract: The framework of local wave activity is adapted to the column‐integrated water vapor in North Hemisphere to investigate the regional difference, seasonal variation, and future change in atmospheric moist wave activity (A+ ${\mathcal{A}}^{+}$) and its sink ((P−E)˜+ ${\widetilde{(P-E)}}^{+}$) in CMIP5 simulations. Analyses indicate the A+ ${\mathcal{A}}^{+}$ and (P−E)˜+ ${\widetilde{(P-E)}}^{+}$ are mainly located at marine (mid‐latitude) regions with large values over monsoon (coastal) areas in summer (winter). Meanwhile, the A+ ${\mathcal{A}}^{+}$ participating in the hydrological cycle (ΔA+ ${\Delta }{\mathcal{A}}^{+}$) is linearly related to the dissipation by (P−E)˜+ ${\widetilde{(P-E)}}^{+}$ that is highly correlated to the local precipitation extremes in both seasons. This proves that the underlying reasons for the ΔA+ ${\Delta }{\mathcal{A}}^{+}$ future changes are favorable for understanding the variability of local extreme precipitation. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the hemispherical increases of ΔA+ ${\Delta }{\mathcal{A}}^{+}$ reflect a pattern enhancement up to 28% (20%) in summer (winter), leading to the ΔA+ ${\Delta }{\mathcal{A}}^{+}$ sensitivity around 6.8%/°C and 4.5%/°C within the given surface warming (∼4°C and ∼4.5°C) in summer and winter. Further inspections illustrate that the increased anomalies of stationary ΔA+ ${\Delta }{\mathcal{A}}^{+}$ accounts for the majority of the total ΔA+ ${\Delta }{\mathcal{A}}^{+}$ changes in terms of spatial features and climate sensitivity under global warming. Moreover, the stirring scale and background moisture gradient, regarded as the dynamic and thermodynamic factors, both have positive contributions (+4.1%/°C and +5.9%/°C) to the high ΔA+ ${\Delta }{\mathcal{A}}^{+}$ sensitivity in summer. Nonetheless, the lower sensitivity in winter could be attributed to the distinct contributions of dynamic (−0.04%/°C) and thermodynamic (+6.1%/°C) effects. Lastly, the strong model agreement in 16 CMIP5 models offers confidence that the increased stationary A+ ${\mathcal{A}}^{+}$ likely leads to more local precipitation extremes in a warming climate. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric moisture transport, which follows large‐scale wave‐like circulation patterns, undergoes significant variations that directly impact regional precipitation and extreme events. This research investigates these wavy moisture transports using CMIP5 model simulations, focusing on how they correlate with local precipitation extremes while also analyzing their projected future changes under global warming. Under the high‐emission RCP8.5 pathway, the intensification of wavy moisture transport shows distinct seasonal and regional characteristics. During summer, the response of moisture transport to surface warming approaches the Clausius‐Clapeyron rate (∼7%/°C), reflecting the dominant thermodynamic processes that govern how much moisture the atmosphere can hold. In contrast, winter patterns exhibit weaker sensitivity due to a complex interplay between dynamic factors (moisture transport distances from the tropics) and thermodynamic effects (background humidity gradients). Further analysis demonstrates that in summer, both the dynamic and thermodynamic factors work together to amplify extreme precipitation, whereas in winter, these factors tend to counteract each other, resulting in a more muted overall effect. Importantly, the model consensus is remarkably strong for projecting increased moisture transport, indicating a likely escalation in localized heavy rainfall events as global temperatures continue to rise. These findings provide insights for understanding how and why precipitation extremes rise in a warming climate. Key Points: The moist wave activity, linearly subjected to the dissipation by its sink, is highly correlated to the local extreme precipitationsThe stationary moist wave activity mainly contributes to the changes of total ones in terms of its spatial features and climate sensitivityDynamic and thermodynamic factors have consistent (distinct) effects on the summertime (wintertime) increasing rate of moist wave activity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Abstract:The framework of local wave activity is adapted to the column‐integrated water vapor in North Hemisphere to investigate the regional difference, seasonal variation, and future change in atmospheric moist wave activity (A+ ${\mathcal{A}}^{+}$) and its sink ((P−E)˜+ ${\widetilde{(P-E)}}^{+}$) in CMIP5 simulations. Analyses indicate the A+ ${\mathcal{A}}^{+}$ and (P−E)˜+ ${\widetilde{(P-E)}}^{+}$ are mainly located at marine (mid‐latitude) regions with large values over monsoon (coastal) areas in summer (winter). Meanwhile, the A+ ${\mathcal{A}}^{+}$ participating in the hydrological cycle (ΔA+ ${\Delta }{\mathcal{A}}^{+}$) is linearly related to the dissipation by (P−E)˜+ ${\widetilde{(P-E)}}^{+}$ that is highly correlated to the local precipitation extremes in both seasons. This proves that the underlying reasons for the ΔA+ ${\Delta }{\mathcal{A}}^{+}$ future changes are favorable for understanding the variability of local extreme precipitation. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the hemispherical increases of ΔA+ ${\Delta }{\mathcal{A}}^{+}$ reflect a pattern enhancement up to 28% (20%) in summer (winter), leading to the ΔA+ ${\Delta }{\mathcal{A}}^{+}$ sensitivity around 6.8%/°C and 4.5%/°C within the given surface warming (∼4°C and ∼4.5°C) in summer and winter. Further inspections illustrate that the increased anomalies of stationary ΔA+ ${\Delta }{\mathcal{A}}^{+}$ accounts for the majority of the total ΔA+ ${\Delta }{\mathcal{A}}^{+}$ changes in terms of spatial features and climate sensitivity under global warming. Moreover, the stirring scale and background moisture gradient, regarded as the dynamic and thermodynamic factors, both have positive contributions (+4.1%/°C and +5.9%/°C) to the high ΔA+ ${\Delta }{\mathcal{A}}^{+}$ sensitivity in summer. Nonetheless, the lower sensitivity in winter could be attributed to the distinct contributions of dynamic (−0.04%/°C) and thermodynamic (+6.1%/°C) effects. Lastly, the strong model agreement in 16 CMIP5 models offers confidence that the increased stationary A+ ${\mathcal{A}}^{+}$ likely leads to more local precipitation extremes in a warming climate. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric moisture transport, which follows large‐scale wave‐like circulation patterns, undergoes significant variations that directly impact regional precipitation and extreme events. This research investigates these wavy moisture transports using CMIP5 model simulations, focusing on how they correlate with local precipitation extremes while also analyzing their projected future changes under global warming. Under the high‐emission RCP8.5 pathway, the intensification of wavy moisture transport shows distinct seasonal and regional characteristics. During summer, the response of moisture transport to surface warming approaches the Clausius‐Clapeyron rate (∼7%/°C), reflecting the dominant thermodynamic processes that govern how much moisture the atmosphere can hold. In contrast, winter patterns exhibit weaker sensitivity due to a complex interplay between dynamic factors (moisture transport distances from the tropics) and thermodynamic effects (background humidity gradients). Further analysis demonstrates that in summer, both the dynamic and thermodynamic factors work together to amplify extreme precipitation, whereas in winter, these factors tend to counteract each other, resulting in a more muted overall effect. Importantly, the model consensus is remarkably strong for projecting increased moisture transport, indicating a likely escalation in localized heavy rainfall events as global temperatures continue to rise. These findings provide insights for understanding how and why precipitation extremes rise in a warming climate. Key Points: The moist wave activity, linearly subjected to the dissipation by its sink, is highly correlated to the local extreme precipitationsThe stationary moist wave activity mainly contributes to the changes of total ones in terms of its spatial features and climate sensitivityDynamic and thermodynamic factors have consistent (distinct) effects on the summertime (wintertime) increasing rate of moist wave activity [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:2169897X
DOI:10.1029/2025JD044844