Comprehensive review of drought characteristics and intensification under climate change: implications for agriculture and water resources.
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| Title: | Comprehensive review of drought characteristics and intensification under climate change: implications for agriculture and water resources. |
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| Authors: | Disasa, Kinde Negessa1 (AUTHOR), Yan, Haofang1,2 (AUTHOR) yanhaofangyhf@163.com, Zhang, Jianyun2 (AUTHOR), Wang, Guoqing2 (AUTHOR), Zhang, Chuan3 (AUTHOR), Zhang, Desheng1 (AUTHOR), Wang, Biyu1 (AUTHOR), Hao, Beibei4 (AUTHOR) |
| Source: | Journal of Hydrology. Jan2026:Part C, Vol. 664, pN.PAG-N.PAG. 1p. |
| Subjects: | Droughts, Climate change, Sensitivity analysis, Agricultural productivity, Water supply, Agriculture |
| Geographic Terms: | Yangtze River Valley (China) |
| Abstract: | • Selection of drought indices can influence performance across regions, land use categories, and climate zones. • Drought characteristics are region-specific, and their intensification is attributed to increasing temperature. • The most pronounced drought effects on crops are observed during the flowering and grain filling stages. • Drought causes agricultural land and crop production loss, and least developed countries are the most vulnerable. Drought is one of the most severe natural disasters, amplified by human intervention, and is characterized by its impact on specific sectors. The severity of this natural disaster is exacerbated both spatially and temporally by the increasing effects of global warming and climate change. Climate change intensifies the propagation from meteorological to agricultural, hydrological, and seriocomic droughts, thereby impacting agricultural production, the economy, and the hydrological status of regional water resources. This review article evaluates the conceptual definitions and various types of drought characteristics (i.e., frequency, duration, intensity, and severity) within specific sectors, such as meteorology, agriculture, hydrology and seriocomic, in the context of climate change. The findings from the reviewed articles suggest that the characteristics of meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, socioeconomic, ecological and flash droughts under climate change are specific to each region. The main findings of the review are summarized as follows: 1) An analysis of meteorological drought trends across 34 river basins globally from 1901 to 2021 showed that 47% of these basins exhibited meteorological droughts in over half of their areas. 2) The characteristics of hydrological droughts, as assessed in the six longest river basins, demonstrated both increasing and decreasing trends. For example, in the Yangtze River Basin, the frequency, duration, and severity of hydrological droughts were projected using six General Circulation Models (GCMs) that employed the bias-corrected spatial disaggregation (BCSD) method to bias-correct and downscale under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2025–2100. The results indicate a decrease of up to 20.57%, 78.69%, and 81.36%, respectively, across the basin, except for the source area, lower reaches, and Yalong River Basin. 3) The differences in the response of drought characteristics to climate change among river basins show that the frequency of hydrological droughts is projected to decrease by 15.50%, whereas the severity of these droughts is expected to increase by 14.40% in the Yellow River Basin between 2015 and 2100. 4) The characteristics of agricultural droughts have shown a persistently increasing trend under global climate change, adversely impacting agricultural production by reducing production areas, altering crop water requirements and promoting the proliferation of pests and diseases. 5) Vulnerability is particularly pronounced when crops are subjected to drought conditions during the flowering and grain filling stages. Soybean plants subjected to drought stress during the flowering period experience a yield reduction of up to 82% on the Huaibei Plain in China. This review delves into the conceptual definitions of drought proposed by various scholars and examines their implications for agriculture and water resources across different regions of the world. This study offers insights into the research community in this field, thereby facilitating further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: | Engineering Source |
| Abstract: | • Selection of drought indices can influence performance across regions, land use categories, and climate zones. • Drought characteristics are region-specific, and their intensification is attributed to increasing temperature. • The most pronounced drought effects on crops are observed during the flowering and grain filling stages. • Drought causes agricultural land and crop production loss, and least developed countries are the most vulnerable. Drought is one of the most severe natural disasters, amplified by human intervention, and is characterized by its impact on specific sectors. The severity of this natural disaster is exacerbated both spatially and temporally by the increasing effects of global warming and climate change. Climate change intensifies the propagation from meteorological to agricultural, hydrological, and seriocomic droughts, thereby impacting agricultural production, the economy, and the hydrological status of regional water resources. This review article evaluates the conceptual definitions and various types of drought characteristics (i.e., frequency, duration, intensity, and severity) within specific sectors, such as meteorology, agriculture, hydrology and seriocomic, in the context of climate change. The findings from the reviewed articles suggest that the characteristics of meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, socioeconomic, ecological and flash droughts under climate change are specific to each region. The main findings of the review are summarized as follows: 1) An analysis of meteorological drought trends across 34 river basins globally from 1901 to 2021 showed that 47% of these basins exhibited meteorological droughts in over half of their areas. 2) The characteristics of hydrological droughts, as assessed in the six longest river basins, demonstrated both increasing and decreasing trends. For example, in the Yangtze River Basin, the frequency, duration, and severity of hydrological droughts were projected using six General Circulation Models (GCMs) that employed the bias-corrected spatial disaggregation (BCSD) method to bias-correct and downscale under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2025–2100. The results indicate a decrease of up to 20.57%, 78.69%, and 81.36%, respectively, across the basin, except for the source area, lower reaches, and Yalong River Basin. 3) The differences in the response of drought characteristics to climate change among river basins show that the frequency of hydrological droughts is projected to decrease by 15.50%, whereas the severity of these droughts is expected to increase by 14.40% in the Yellow River Basin between 2015 and 2100. 4) The characteristics of agricultural droughts have shown a persistently increasing trend under global climate change, adversely impacting agricultural production by reducing production areas, altering crop water requirements and promoting the proliferation of pests and diseases. 5) Vulnerability is particularly pronounced when crops are subjected to drought conditions during the flowering and grain filling stages. Soybean plants subjected to drought stress during the flowering period experience a yield reduction of up to 82% on the Huaibei Plain in China. This review delves into the conceptual definitions of drought proposed by various scholars and examines their implications for agriculture and water resources across different regions of the world. This study offers insights into the research community in this field, thereby facilitating further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 00221694 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134571 |
