Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observations (EFSO) Applied to All-sky Infrared Radiance Observations.

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Bibliographic Details
Title:	Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observations (EFSO) Applied to All-sky Infrared Radiance Observations.
Authors:	Honda, Takumi¹ (AUTHOR) honda.takumi2024@mail.u-tokyo.ac.jp, Yamazaki, Akira² (AUTHOR), Okamoto, Kozo³ (AUTHOR)
Source:	Monthly Weather Review. Jun2026, Vol. 154 Issue 6, p1-16. 16p.
Subjects:	Satellite meteorology, Data assimilation, Sensitivity analysis, Tropical cyclones, Mesoscale convective complexes
Abstract:	Forecast sensitivity to observations (FSO) estimates the extent to which each observation contributes to forecast improvement and provides insights into the effective use of observations and the design of future observing systems. Ensemble forecast sensitivity to observations (EFSO) has been widely applied to global-scale data assimilation (DA), whereas its use in convective-scale DA has been less explored, particularly for the assimilation of all-sky infrared (IR) radiance observations from geostationary satellites. This study investigates observations' impacts on forecasts estimated by EFSO (EFSO impacts) of such satellite observations in convective-scale DA in cases of a mesoscale convective system and a tropical cyclone. In both cases, EFSO impacts of all-sky IR radiance observations are more beneficial than those of conventional observations. Specifically, IR radiance observations under cloudy-sky conditions exhibit more beneficial EFSO impacts than those under clear-sky conditions. Furthermore, EFSO impacts are found to be sensitive to the thinning interval of IR radiance observations, probably related to the observation-error correlations and the number of observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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Database:	Engineering Source

Description
Abstract:	Forecast sensitivity to observations (FSO) estimates the extent to which each observation contributes to forecast improvement and provides insights into the effective use of observations and the design of future observing systems. Ensemble forecast sensitivity to observations (EFSO) has been widely applied to global-scale data assimilation (DA), whereas its use in convective-scale DA has been less explored, particularly for the assimilation of all-sky infrared (IR) radiance observations from geostationary satellites. This study investigates observations' impacts on forecasts estimated by EFSO (EFSO impacts) of such satellite observations in convective-scale DA in cases of a mesoscale convective system and a tropical cyclone. In both cases, EFSO impacts of all-sky IR radiance observations are more beneficial than those of conventional observations. Specifically, IR radiance observations under cloudy-sky conditions exhibit more beneficial EFSO impacts than those under clear-sky conditions. Furthermore, EFSO impacts are found to be sensitive to the thinning interval of IR radiance observations, probably related to the observation-error correlations and the number of observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:	00270644
DOI:	10.1175/MWR-D-25-0248.1