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Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observations (EFSO) Applied to All-sky Infrared Radiance Observations.

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Title: Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observations (EFSO) Applied to All-sky Infrared Radiance Observations.
Authors: Honda, Takumi1 (AUTHOR) honda.takumi2024@mail.u-tokyo.ac.jp, Yamazaki, Akira2 (AUTHOR), Okamoto, Kozo3 (AUTHOR)
Source: Monthly Weather Review. Jun2026, Vol. 154 Issue 6, p1-16. 16p.
Subjects: Satellite meteorology, Data assimilation, Sensitivity analysis, Tropical cyclones, Mesoscale convective complexes
Abstract: Forecast sensitivity to observations (FSO) estimates the extent to which each observation contributes to forecast improvement and provides insights into the effective use of observations and the design of future observing systems. Ensemble forecast sensitivity to observations (EFSO) has been widely applied to global-scale data assimilation (DA), whereas its use in convective-scale DA has been less explored, particularly for the assimilation of all-sky infrared (IR) radiance observations from geostationary satellites. This study investigates observations' impacts on forecasts estimated by EFSO (EFSO impacts) of such satellite observations in convective-scale DA in cases of a mesoscale convective system and a tropical cyclone. In both cases, EFSO impacts of all-sky IR radiance observations are more beneficial than those of conventional observations. Specifically, IR radiance observations under cloudy-sky conditions exhibit more beneficial EFSO impacts than those under clear-sky conditions. Furthermore, EFSO impacts are found to be sensitive to the thinning interval of IR radiance observations, probably related to the observation-error correlations and the number of observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of Monthly Weather Review is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observations (EFSO) Applied to All-sky Infrared Radiance Observations.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Monthly+Weather+Review%22">Monthly Weather Review</searchLink>. Jun2026, Vol. 154 Issue 6, p1-16. 16p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Satellite+meteorology%22">Satellite meteorology</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Data+assimilation%22">Data assimilation</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Sensitivity+analysis%22">Sensitivity analysis</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tropical+cyclones%22">Tropical cyclones</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mesoscale+convective+complexes%22">Mesoscale convective complexes</searchLink>
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  Data: Forecast sensitivity to observations (FSO) estimates the extent to which each observation contributes to forecast improvement and provides insights into the effective use of observations and the design of future observing systems. Ensemble forecast sensitivity to observations (EFSO) has been widely applied to global-scale data assimilation (DA), whereas its use in convective-scale DA has been less explored, particularly for the assimilation of all-sky infrared (IR) radiance observations from geostationary satellites. This study investigates observations' impacts on forecasts estimated by EFSO (EFSO impacts) of such satellite observations in convective-scale DA in cases of a mesoscale convective system and a tropical cyclone. In both cases, EFSO impacts of all-sky IR radiance observations are more beneficial than those of conventional observations. Specifically, IR radiance observations under cloudy-sky conditions exhibit more beneficial EFSO impacts than those under clear-sky conditions. Furthermore, EFSO impacts are found to be sensitive to the thinning interval of IR radiance observations, probably related to the observation-error correlations and the number of observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
  Group: Ab
  Data: <i>Copyright of Monthly Weather Review is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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        Value: 10.1175/MWR-D-25-0248.1
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 16
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      – SubjectFull: Satellite meteorology
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Data assimilation
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Sensitivity analysis
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Tropical cyclones
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Mesoscale convective complexes
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observations (EFSO) Applied to All-sky Infrared Radiance Observations.
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            NameFull: Honda, Takumi
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            NameFull: Yamazaki, Akira
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            – D: 01
              M: 06
              Text: Jun2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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