Fundeb e Transição Demográfica: Efeitos Distributivos e Sustentabilidade Financeira das Redes Municipais de Educação em Caucaia e Eusébio, Ceará, Brasil.
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| Title: | Fundeb e Transição Demográfica: Efeitos Distributivos e Sustentabilidade Financeira das Redes Municipais de Educação em Caucaia e Eusébio, Ceará, Brasil. |
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| Alternate Title: | Fundeb and demographic transition: Distributive effects and financial sustainability of municipal education systems in Caucaia and Eusébio, Ceará, Brazil. Fundeb y transición demográfica: Efectos distributivos y sostenibilidad financiera de las redes municipales de educación en Caucaia y Eusébio, Ceará, Brasil. |
| Authors: | Arnaud, José Cavalcante1 arnaudcavalcante@gmail.com, Alves, José Matias1 matiasalvesucp.porto@gmail.com |
| Source: | Education Policy Analysis Archives / Archivos Analíticos de Políticas Educativas / Arquivos Analíticos de Políticas Educativas. 5/5/2026, Vol. 34 Issue 42-44, p1-21. 21p. |
| Subject Terms: | *Public education financing, *Cities & towns, *Educational equalization, *Financial management, Demographic transition |
| Geographic Terms: | Ceará (Brazil : State), Brazil |
| People: | Rawls, John, 1921-2002 |
| Abstract (English): | This article analyzes the effects of the education financing model via Fundeb on federative equity in contrasting demographic contexts, based on a comparative study of the municipalities of Caucaia (with population decline) and Eusébio (with population growth) in the state of Ceará. The research operationalized four main indicators: the rate of growth/reduction in enrollments, the Fundeb/own-revenue ratio, cost per student-year, and institutional density of the school system. Data for the period from 2014 to 2024 reveal that Caucaia experienced a 2.2% reduction in enrollments and greater dependence on Fundeb (ratio of 3.44), while Eusébio recorded growth of 16.4% and lower dependence (ratio of 0.87). Grounded in the theoretical frameworks of Rawls (1999), Sen (2009), and Merton (1968), the study shows that the current model—although it incorporates weighting factors and redistributive mechanisms introduced by Constitutional Amendment No. 108/2020 (VAAF, VAAT, and VAAR)—by maintaining the number of weighted enrollments as its central axis, tends to produce asymmetric effects in different demographic contexts. Municipalities experiencing growth benefit from relative economies of scale, whereas those undergoing decline face challenges to financial sustainability. The article concludes by emphasizing the urgency of implementing the Student Quality Cost (CAQ) and adopting redistributive mechanisms that take demographic, fiscal, and social variables into account, thereby ensuring financial sustainability and educational justice in contexts of inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Abstract (Spanish): | Este artículo analiza los efectos del modelo de financiamiento educativo vía Fundeb sobre la equidad federativa en contextos demográficos contrastantes, a partir de un estudio comparativo entre los municipios cearenses de Caucaia (con retracción poblacional) y Eusébio (en expansión poblacional). La investigación operacionalizó cuatro indicadores principales: tasa de crecimiento/reducción de matrículas, relación Fundeb/recursos propios, costo alumno-año y densidad institucional de la red. Los datos correspondientes al período de 2014 a 2024 revelan que Caucaia presentó una reducción del 2,2 % en las matrículas y una mayor dependencia del Fundeb (relación de 3,44), mientras que Eusébio registró un crecimiento del 16,4 % y una menor dependencia (relación de 0,87). Fundamentado en los marcos teóricos de Rawls (1999), Sen (2009) y Merton (1968), se demuestra que el modelo actual, aunque incorpora factores de ponderación y mecanismos redistributivos introducidos por la Enmienda Constitucional n.º 108/2020 (VAAF, VAAT y VAAR), al mantener como eje central el número de matrículas ponderadas, tiende a producir efectos asimétricos en contextos demográficos distintos: los municipios en expansión presentan ganancias relativas de escala, mientras que aquellos en retracción enfrentan desafíos de sostenibilidad financiera. Se concluye destacando la urgencia de implementar el Costo Alumno-Calidad (CAQ) y de adoptar mecanismos redistributivos que consideren variables demográficas, fiscales y sociales, garantizando la sostenibilidad financiera y la justicia educativa en contextos de desigualdad. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
| Abstract (Portuguese): | Este artigo analisa os efeitos do modelo de financiamento educacional via Fundeb sobre a equidade federativa em contextos demográficos contrastantes, com base em um estudo comparativo entre os municípios cearenses de Caucaia (com retração populacional) e Eusébio (em expansão populacional). A pesquisa operacionalizou quatro indicadores principais: taxa de crescimento/redução de matrículas, relação Fundeb/recursos próprios, custo aluno-ano e densidade institucional da rede. Os dados referentes ao período de 2014 a 2024 revelam que Caucaia apresentou redução de 2,2% nas matrículas e maior dependência do Fundeb (relação 3,44), enquanto Eusébio registrou crescimento de 16,4% e menor dependência (relação 0,87). Fundamentado nos referenciais de Rawls (1999), Sen (2009) e Merton (1968), demonstra-se que o atual modelo, embora incorpore fatores de ponderação e mecanismos redistributivos introduzidos pela EC nº 108/2020 (VAAF, VAAT e VAAR), ao manter como eixo central o número de matrículas ponderadas, tende a produzir efeitos assimétricos em contextos demográficos distintos, com municípios em expansão apresentando ganhos relativos de escala e aqueles em retração enfrentando desafios de sustentabilidade financeira. Conclui-se pela urgência na implementação do Custo Aluno-Qualidade (CAQ) e na adoção de mecanismos redistributivos que considerem variáveis demográficas, fiscais e sociais, assegurando sustentabilidade financeira e justiça educacional em contextos de desigualdade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: | Education Research Complete |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the effects of the education financing model via Fundeb on federative equity in contrasting demographic contexts, based on a comparative study of the municipalities of Caucaia (with population decline) and Eusébio (with population growth) in the state of Ceará. The research operationalized four main indicators: the rate of growth/reduction in enrollments, the Fundeb/own-revenue ratio, cost per student-year, and institutional density of the school system. Data for the period from 2014 to 2024 reveal that Caucaia experienced a 2.2% reduction in enrollments and greater dependence on Fundeb (ratio of 3.44), while Eusébio recorded growth of 16.4% and lower dependence (ratio of 0.87). Grounded in the theoretical frameworks of Rawls (1999), Sen (2009), and Merton (1968), the study shows that the current model—although it incorporates weighting factors and redistributive mechanisms introduced by Constitutional Amendment No. 108/2020 (VAAF, VAAT, and VAAR)—by maintaining the number of weighted enrollments as its central axis, tends to produce asymmetric effects in different demographic contexts. Municipalities experiencing growth benefit from relative economies of scale, whereas those undergoing decline face challenges to financial sustainability. The article concludes by emphasizing the urgency of implementing the Student Quality Cost (CAQ) and adopting redistributive mechanisms that take demographic, fiscal, and social variables into account, thereby ensuring financial sustainability and educational justice in contexts of inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 10682341 |
| DOI: | 10.14507/epaa.34.9430 |
