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Tropical cyclone landfall intensity (Vmax) for western North Pacific nations: return period and trends.

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Bibliographic Details
Title: Tropical cyclone landfall intensity (Vmax) for western North Pacific nations: return period and trends.
Authors: Bell, Samuel S.1 (AUTHOR) ss.bell@federation.edu.au, Chand, Savin S.1 (AUTHOR), Klotzbach, Philip J.2 (AUTHOR), Ekström, Marie3 (AUTHOR), Koschatzsky, Valentina3 (AUTHOR), Kumar, Sarvesh1 (AUTHOR), Sharma, Krishneel K.4 (AUTHOR), Hemmati, Mona3 (AUTHOR)
Source: Natural Hazards. May2026, Vol. 122 Issue 10, p1-22. 22p.
Subject Terms: *Tropical cyclones, *Wind speed, *Continuous time models, *Extreme weather, *Statistical measurement, El Niño
Geographic Terms: Micronesia, Philippines, North Pacific Ocean
Abstract: Human impacts, including financial losses, are closely related to the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls in the western North Pacific (WNP) region. Here, 44 years of observational TC wind speed (Vmax) and track records (1980–2023) are used to examine TC landfall intensity trends and recurrence. Analysis is conducted over individual nations and includes modulation by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has recently exhibited increasing asymmetries in spatial and temporal evolution. Two modern ENSO indices are first evaluated before one is selected to classify TC seasons into canonical phases. Landfall trends over individual nations are insignificant, but significant decreases are noted for the northern Philippines and parts of Micronesia, including for intense (> 33 m s–1) Vmax. However, the distribution of upper-tail Vmax values increases for 5 of 7 nations over the recent period, including the Philippines and Micronesia, confounding the impact of the much-noted poleward shift in WNP TC activity. Ex-TC landfall trends, while less robust, are also evaluated, and shown to have increased over the southwest corner of Japan. Lastly, a modified return period framework is employed to estimate the recurrence of Vmax at various locations based on "peak average" speeds and the shape of a reference extreme value curve. The framework provides a consistent platform for estimating long-term return magnitudes with limited data, such as Vmax over land. 1-in-200 year Vmax intensities are estimated to be the highest over the Philippines, southern Japanese islands and Micronesia, and relatively lower over Vietnam, Korea and China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Database: Energy & Power Source
Description
Abstract:Human impacts, including financial losses, are closely related to the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls in the western North Pacific (WNP) region. Here, 44 years of observational TC wind speed (Vmax) and track records (1980–2023) are used to examine TC landfall intensity trends and recurrence. Analysis is conducted over individual nations and includes modulation by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has recently exhibited increasing asymmetries in spatial and temporal evolution. Two modern ENSO indices are first evaluated before one is selected to classify TC seasons into canonical phases. Landfall trends over individual nations are insignificant, but significant decreases are noted for the northern Philippines and parts of Micronesia, including for intense (> 33 m s–1) Vmax. However, the distribution of upper-tail Vmax values increases for 5 of 7 nations over the recent period, including the Philippines and Micronesia, confounding the impact of the much-noted poleward shift in WNP TC activity. Ex-TC landfall trends, while less robust, are also evaluated, and shown to have increased over the southwest corner of Japan. Lastly, a modified return period framework is employed to estimate the recurrence of Vmax at various locations based on "peak average" speeds and the shape of a reference extreme value curve. The framework provides a consistent platform for estimating long-term return magnitudes with limited data, such as Vmax over land. 1-in-200 year Vmax intensities are estimated to be the highest over the Philippines, southern Japanese islands and Micronesia, and relatively lower over Vietnam, Korea and China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:0921030X
DOI:10.1007/s11069-026-08164-z