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Tropical cyclone landfall intensity (Vmax) for western North Pacific nations: return period and trends.

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Title: Tropical cyclone landfall intensity (Vmax) for western North Pacific nations: return period and trends.
Authors: Bell, Samuel S.1 (AUTHOR) ss.bell@federation.edu.au, Chand, Savin S.1 (AUTHOR), Klotzbach, Philip J.2 (AUTHOR), Ekström, Marie3 (AUTHOR), Koschatzsky, Valentina3 (AUTHOR), Kumar, Sarvesh1 (AUTHOR), Sharma, Krishneel K.4 (AUTHOR), Hemmati, Mona3 (AUTHOR)
Source: Natural Hazards. May2026, Vol. 122 Issue 10, p1-22. 22p.
Subject Terms: *Tropical cyclones, *Wind speed, *Continuous time models, *Extreme weather, *Statistical measurement, El Niño
Geographic Terms: Micronesia, Philippines, North Pacific Ocean
Abstract: Human impacts, including financial losses, are closely related to the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls in the western North Pacific (WNP) region. Here, 44 years of observational TC wind speed (Vmax) and track records (1980–2023) are used to examine TC landfall intensity trends and recurrence. Analysis is conducted over individual nations and includes modulation by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has recently exhibited increasing asymmetries in spatial and temporal evolution. Two modern ENSO indices are first evaluated before one is selected to classify TC seasons into canonical phases. Landfall trends over individual nations are insignificant, but significant decreases are noted for the northern Philippines and parts of Micronesia, including for intense (> 33 m s–1) Vmax. However, the distribution of upper-tail Vmax values increases for 5 of 7 nations over the recent period, including the Philippines and Micronesia, confounding the impact of the much-noted poleward shift in WNP TC activity. Ex-TC landfall trends, while less robust, are also evaluated, and shown to have increased over the southwest corner of Japan. Lastly, a modified return period framework is employed to estimate the recurrence of Vmax at various locations based on "peak average" speeds and the shape of a reference extreme value curve. The framework provides a consistent platform for estimating long-term return magnitudes with limited data, such as Vmax over land. 1-in-200 year Vmax intensities are estimated to be the highest over the Philippines, southern Japanese islands and Micronesia, and relatively lower over Vietnam, Korea and China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Database: Energy & Power Source
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  Availability: 0
Header DbId: enr
DbLabel: Energy & Power Source
An: 193366713
AccessLevel: 6
PubType: Academic Journal
PubTypeId: academicJournal
PreciseRelevancyScore: 0
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  Label: Title
  Group: Ti
  Data: Tropical cyclone landfall intensity (V<subscript>max</subscript>) for western North Pacific nations: return period and trends.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Bell%2C+Samuel+S%2E%22">Bell, Samuel S.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<i> ss.bell@federation.edu.au</i><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Chand%2C+Savin+S%2E%22">Chand, Savin S.</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Klotzbach%2C+Philip+J%2E%22">Klotzbach, Philip J.</searchLink><relatesTo>2</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ekström%2C+Marie%22">Ekström, Marie</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Koschatzsky%2C+Valentina%22">Koschatzsky, Valentina</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kumar%2C+Sarvesh%22">Kumar, Sarvesh</searchLink><relatesTo>1</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Sharma%2C+Krishneel+K%2E%22">Sharma, Krishneel K.</searchLink><relatesTo>4</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Hemmati%2C+Mona%22">Hemmati, Mona</searchLink><relatesTo>3</relatesTo> (AUTHOR)
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22Natural+Hazards%22">Natural Hazards</searchLink>. May2026, Vol. 122 Issue 10, p1-22. 22p.
– Name: Subject
  Label: Subject Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: *<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Tropical+cyclones%22">Tropical cyclones</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Wind+speed%22">Wind speed</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Continuous+time+models%22">Continuous time models</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Extreme+weather%22">Extreme weather</searchLink><br />*<searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Statistical+measurement%22">Statistical measurement</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22El+Niño%22">El Niño</searchLink>
– Name: SubjectGeographic
  Label: Geographic Terms
  Group: Su
  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Micronesia%22">Micronesia</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Philippines%22">Philippines</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22North+Pacific+Ocean%22">North Pacific Ocean</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Human impacts, including financial losses, are closely related to the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls in the western North Pacific (WNP) region. Here, 44 years of observational TC wind speed (Vmax) and track records (1980–2023) are used to examine TC landfall intensity trends and recurrence. Analysis is conducted over individual nations and includes modulation by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has recently exhibited increasing asymmetries in spatial and temporal evolution. Two modern ENSO indices are first evaluated before one is selected to classify TC seasons into canonical phases. Landfall trends over individual nations are insignificant, but significant decreases are noted for the northern Philippines and parts of Micronesia, including for intense (> 33 m s–1) Vmax. However, the distribution of upper-tail Vmax values increases for 5 of 7 nations over the recent period, including the Philippines and Micronesia, confounding the impact of the much-noted poleward shift in WNP TC activity. Ex-TC landfall trends, while less robust, are also evaluated, and shown to have increased over the southwest corner of Japan. Lastly, a modified return period framework is employed to estimate the recurrence of Vmax at various locations based on "peak average" speeds and the shape of a reference extreme value curve. The framework provides a consistent platform for estimating long-term return magnitudes with limited data, such as Vmax over land. 1-in-200 year Vmax intensities are estimated to be the highest over the Philippines, southern Japanese islands and Micronesia, and relatively lower over Vietnam, Korea and China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=enr&AN=193366713
RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
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      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.1007/s11069-026-08164-z
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 22
        StartPage: 1
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Tropical cyclones
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Wind speed
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Continuous time models
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Extreme weather
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      – SubjectFull: Statistical measurement
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: El Niño
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Micronesia
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Philippines
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: North Pacific Ocean
        Type: general
    Titles:
      – TitleFull: Tropical cyclone landfall intensity (Vmax) for western North Pacific nations: return period and trends.
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              M: 05
              Text: May2026
              Type: published
              Y: 2026
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