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Seismic risk analysis of building portfolios affected by dual mainshock sequences in high-altitude regions.

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Bibliographic Details
Title: Seismic risk analysis of building portfolios affected by dual mainshock sequences in high-altitude regions.
Authors: Li, Si-Qi1 (AUTHOR) lisiqi@hlju.edu.cn, Zheng, Lin-Lin1 (AUTHOR)
Source: Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering. Jun2026, Vol. 24 Issue 6, p3765-3794. 30p.
Subject Terms: *Earthquake hazard analysis, *Risk assessment, *Subalpine zone, *Structural stability, *Earthquake intensity
Geographic Terms: China
Abstract: The dual mainshock sequence has a significant effect on the seismic risk and fragility of building portfolios in high-altitude areas. However, relatively few studies have focused on seismic risk estimation for building portfolios in high-altitude areas under the influence of dual mainshock earthquake sequences. This study proposes a seismic hazard quantification model that considers the stochastic process of earthquake ground motion and signal processing strategies. Using multiple seismic intensity scale quantification standards, a seismic intensity field model considering empirical intensity estimation indicators has been established. Considering the two mainshock sequences in the plateau and nonplateau areas (the Dingri earthquake in January 2025 and the Luding earthquake in June 2022, China), monitoring data from eight real seismic stations (673,800 monitoring acceleration records) are used to develop nonlinear dynamic time histories and calculate intensity field models. Using probability statistics and empirical strategies, a statistical model was established for the actual earthquake losses of adobe and wooden structures (AWSs) and brick and masonry buildings (BMBs) affected by the 2005 Zhongba earthquake (double mainshock sequence) and the Luding earthquake (single mainshock sequence). The vulnerability grades of the AWS and BMB samples in the plateau and nonplateau areas were evaluated via the Chinese seismic code and intensity scales. A vulnerability prediction model for AWS and BMB clusters in high-altitude areas, incorporating the chi-square distribution and Fourier regression algorithm, was established. A case study was conducted using actual survey data. A vulnerability index and risk membership index model considering dual mainshock sequences was proposed for AWSs and BMBs in plateau areas. The results indicate that the proposed hazard and intensity field quantification model can significantly improve the accuracy of evaluating seismic intensity indicators. The established multi-index risk prediction model can provide a positive reference for the fragility assessment of typical structures in high-altitude areas under dual mainshock sequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Database: Energy & Power Source
Description
Abstract:The dual mainshock sequence has a significant effect on the seismic risk and fragility of building portfolios in high-altitude areas. However, relatively few studies have focused on seismic risk estimation for building portfolios in high-altitude areas under the influence of dual mainshock earthquake sequences. This study proposes a seismic hazard quantification model that considers the stochastic process of earthquake ground motion and signal processing strategies. Using multiple seismic intensity scale quantification standards, a seismic intensity field model considering empirical intensity estimation indicators has been established. Considering the two mainshock sequences in the plateau and nonplateau areas (the Dingri earthquake in January 2025 and the Luding earthquake in June 2022, China), monitoring data from eight real seismic stations (673,800 monitoring acceleration records) are used to develop nonlinear dynamic time histories and calculate intensity field models. Using probability statistics and empirical strategies, a statistical model was established for the actual earthquake losses of adobe and wooden structures (AWSs) and brick and masonry buildings (BMBs) affected by the 2005 Zhongba earthquake (double mainshock sequence) and the Luding earthquake (single mainshock sequence). The vulnerability grades of the AWS and BMB samples in the plateau and nonplateau areas were evaluated via the Chinese seismic code and intensity scales. A vulnerability prediction model for AWS and BMB clusters in high-altitude areas, incorporating the chi-square distribution and Fourier regression algorithm, was established. A case study was conducted using actual survey data. A vulnerability index and risk membership index model considering dual mainshock sequences was proposed for AWSs and BMBs in plateau areas. The results indicate that the proposed hazard and intensity field quantification model can significantly improve the accuracy of evaluating seismic intensity indicators. The established multi-index risk prediction model can provide a positive reference for the fragility assessment of typical structures in high-altitude areas under dual mainshock sequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
ISSN:1570761X
DOI:10.1007/s10518-026-02436-6