The Fiscal and Resource Effects of Enrollment Increases and Decreases on American Public School Districts. EdWorkingPaper No. 25-1266
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| Title: | The Fiscal and Resource Effects of Enrollment Increases and Decreases on American Public School Districts. EdWorkingPaper No. 25-1266 |
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| Language: | English |
| Authors: | Matthew H. Lee, Benjamin Scafidi, Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University |
| Source: | Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. 2025. |
| Availability: | Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. Brown University Box 1985, Providence, RI 02912. Tel: 401-863-7990; Fax: 401-863-1290; e-mail: annenberg@brown.edu; Web site: https://annenberg.brown.edu/ |
| Peer Reviewed: | N |
| Page Count: | 87 |
| Publication Date: | 2025 |
| Document Type: | Reports - Evaluative Numerical/Quantitative Data |
| Education Level: | Elementary Secondary Education |
| Descriptors: | Public Schools, School Districts, Enrollment, Enrollment Trends, Declining Enrollment, Educational Finance, Income, Expenditure per Student, Elementary Secondary Education, State Aid, Federal Aid |
| Geographic Terms: | United States |
| Abstract: | Public school enrollment has decreased over the past few years and is forecast to continue decreasing for the foreseeable future. Experts and educators are concerned about the fiscal and resource effects of these enrollment declines. Using data on all public school districts from 1998 to 2019, we estimate the effects of enrollment changes on revenues and expenditures per pupil and a variety of resources for students. Our preferred empirical approach operationalizes all explanatory variables as spline variables, which allows for different covariates for growing and declining districts. This flexible approach allows for the possibility that school funding systems, and therefore fiscal and resource changes, differ between districts with growing and declining student enrollment. We find generally that districts with declining student enrollment have experienced larger per pupil increases in funding and resources, as compared to districts with growing enrollments. The one counterexample is total compensation (salary and benefits) per employee in the long run. While the estimates in our preferred models suggest a modest compensation advantage for growing districts over longer time periods, this result is not robust to alternative specifications, which tend to find null effects. All other fiscal and resource measures find an advantage for declining enrollment districts. This fiscal and resource advantage for declining districts was due to local and federal school finance systems not requiring declining districts to suffer revenue declines proportional to enrollment declines. |
| Abstractor: | As Provided |
| Entry Date: | 2026 |
| Accession Number: | ED678225 |
| Database: | ERIC |
| Abstract: | Public school enrollment has decreased over the past few years and is forecast to continue decreasing for the foreseeable future. Experts and educators are concerned about the fiscal and resource effects of these enrollment declines. Using data on all public school districts from 1998 to 2019, we estimate the effects of enrollment changes on revenues and expenditures per pupil and a variety of resources for students. Our preferred empirical approach operationalizes all explanatory variables as spline variables, which allows for different covariates for growing and declining districts. This flexible approach allows for the possibility that school funding systems, and therefore fiscal and resource changes, differ between districts with growing and declining student enrollment. We find generally that districts with declining student enrollment have experienced larger per pupil increases in funding and resources, as compared to districts with growing enrollments. The one counterexample is total compensation (salary and benefits) per employee in the long run. While the estimates in our preferred models suggest a modest compensation advantage for growing districts over longer time periods, this result is not robust to alternative specifications, which tend to find null effects. All other fiscal and resource measures find an advantage for declining enrollment districts. This fiscal and resource advantage for declining districts was due to local and federal school finance systems not requiring declining districts to suffer revenue declines proportional to enrollment declines. |
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