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The Fiscal and Resource Effects of Enrollment Increases and Decreases on American Public School Districts. EdWorkingPaper No. 25-1266

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Title: The Fiscal and Resource Effects of Enrollment Increases and Decreases on American Public School Districts. EdWorkingPaper No. 25-1266
Language: English
Authors: Matthew H. Lee, Benjamin Scafidi, Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University
Source: Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. 2025.
Availability: Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. Brown University Box 1985, Providence, RI 02912. Tel: 401-863-7990; Fax: 401-863-1290; e-mail: annenberg@brown.edu; Web site: https://annenberg.brown.edu/
Peer Reviewed: N
Page Count: 87
Publication Date: 2025
Document Type: Reports - Evaluative
Numerical/Quantitative Data
Education Level: Elementary Secondary Education
Descriptors: Public Schools, School Districts, Enrollment, Enrollment Trends, Declining Enrollment, Educational Finance, Income, Expenditure per Student, Elementary Secondary Education, State Aid, Federal Aid
Geographic Terms: United States
Abstract: Public school enrollment has decreased over the past few years and is forecast to continue decreasing for the foreseeable future. Experts and educators are concerned about the fiscal and resource effects of these enrollment declines. Using data on all public school districts from 1998 to 2019, we estimate the effects of enrollment changes on revenues and expenditures per pupil and a variety of resources for students. Our preferred empirical approach operationalizes all explanatory variables as spline variables, which allows for different covariates for growing and declining districts. This flexible approach allows for the possibility that school funding systems, and therefore fiscal and resource changes, differ between districts with growing and declining student enrollment. We find generally that districts with declining student enrollment have experienced larger per pupil increases in funding and resources, as compared to districts with growing enrollments. The one counterexample is total compensation (salary and benefits) per employee in the long run. While the estimates in our preferred models suggest a modest compensation advantage for growing districts over longer time periods, this result is not robust to alternative specifications, which tend to find null effects. All other fiscal and resource measures find an advantage for declining enrollment districts. This fiscal and resource advantage for declining districts was due to local and federal school finance systems not requiring declining districts to suffer revenue declines proportional to enrollment declines.
Abstractor: As Provided
Entry Date: 2026
Accession Number: ED678225
Database: ERIC
FullText Text:
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  Data: The Fiscal and Resource Effects of Enrollment Increases and Decreases on American Public School Districts. EdWorkingPaper No. 25-1266
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  Data: Annenberg Institute for School Reform at Brown University. Brown University Box 1985, Providence, RI 02912. Tel: 401-863-7990; Fax: 401-863-1290; e-mail: annenberg@brown.edu; Web site: https://annenberg.brown.edu/
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22United+States%22">United States</searchLink>
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  Data: Public school enrollment has decreased over the past few years and is forecast to continue decreasing for the foreseeable future. Experts and educators are concerned about the fiscal and resource effects of these enrollment declines. Using data on all public school districts from 1998 to 2019, we estimate the effects of enrollment changes on revenues and expenditures per pupil and a variety of resources for students. Our preferred empirical approach operationalizes all explanatory variables as spline variables, which allows for different covariates for growing and declining districts. This flexible approach allows for the possibility that school funding systems, and therefore fiscal and resource changes, differ between districts with growing and declining student enrollment. We find generally that districts with declining student enrollment have experienced larger per pupil increases in funding and resources, as compared to districts with growing enrollments. The one counterexample is total compensation (salary and benefits) per employee in the long run. While the estimates in our preferred models suggest a modest compensation advantage for growing districts over longer time periods, this result is not robust to alternative specifications, which tend to find null effects. All other fiscal and resource measures find an advantage for declining enrollment districts. This fiscal and resource advantage for declining districts was due to local and federal school finance systems not requiring declining districts to suffer revenue declines proportional to enrollment declines.
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  Data: As Provided
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  Data: 2026
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  Data: ED678225
PLink https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=eric&AN=ED678225
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      – Text: English
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      Pagination:
        PageCount: 87
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Public Schools
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: School Districts
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Enrollment
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Enrollment Trends
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Declining Enrollment
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Educational Finance
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Income
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Expenditure per Student
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Elementary Secondary Education
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: State Aid
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Federal Aid
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: United States
        Type: general
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      – TitleFull: The Fiscal and Resource Effects of Enrollment Increases and Decreases on American Public School Districts. EdWorkingPaper No. 25-1266
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